The last 3 days in Italy the figures are (earliest first) 23%, 21%, 17%. We won’t have today’s figures until later.

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Maybe some good news soon

A group of Dutch scientists believe they’ve found an antibody that could help to detect and prevent the coronavirus from being able to infect people.

It hasn’t been tested on humans - a process that will take months.

The researchers at the Erasmus Medical Centre and Utrecht University describe their discovery as an antibody to Sars2, the coronavirus causing the current pandemic (Covid-19).

The scientists were already working on an antibody for Sars1 and when the new coronavirus broke out, they said they had found that the same antibodies cross-reacted and blocked the infection.

Their findings are still being reviewed and the antibody is yet to be rigorously tested.

The researchers are hoping to convince a pharmaceutical company to support its mass production as a medicine which they believe would detect and prevent the spread of the virus.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51886497

 

I am not confident at all Justin, but instinctively I don't like it. Let's hope our approach proves to be pioneering. 

It already is out of control and I believe it has been from the start.  All we can do is try to lessen the impact.  

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Stuff the bloody Dutch. We've got the high tech herd immunity strategy. It's the way of the future. 

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only in what we call net gain and not percentage points gain in real terms it lays about tenth in history.

 

Latest global count: 150597

Confirmed deaths: 5620 (3.37%)

Confirmed recoveries: 73753 (48.9%) 

 

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I wasn't suggesting testing anyone who reports - but merely recording how many people are showing likely symptoms. If you don't know even that, how can you devise an effective policy?  The number of confirmed cases is now a meaningless statistic.

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I don't mean the virus itself, I mean the number of deaths.

The rebellion is growing. One wonders whether Whitty and Vallance will soon have to be scapegoated. 

Hundreds of members of the scientific community have sent two open letters to the British government, voicing their concerns about the response to the coronavirus outbreak.

One comes from 198 academics in the field of maths and science, calling for urgent measures of social distancing across the UK.

It says: “Going for ‘herd immunity’ at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary.”

Another letter has been signed by 164 behavioural scientists. It raises concerns about the idea of “behavioural fatigue” – the idea that if the public are instructed to take preventative measures too early, they’ll eventually revert back to prior behaviour.

The letter suggests that this has been a cornerstone of British government policy on coronavirus and sheds doubt on the evidence behind this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

 

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It think it should be pretty obvious to everyone that growth is becoming exponential and that the numbers infected will peak in the millions, not the thousands. I can’t see any way that won’t happen to be honest. 

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Sounds like a comment in the Weather Forum from our Aberdeen cohort.

😉

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I have thought the same and this is something that HMG would be very effective and ruthless at.

As for the letter, the time for experts to speak is now. 

I think you’re right about the number of confirmed cases being a meaningless statistic in some ways. It could never be accurate because we don’t know how many asymptomatic case there are. The problem with reporting ‘likely symptoms’ is that would be down to guess work rather than science, as there are so many other seasonal bugs around with similar symptoms. Added to that, the number of asymptomatic cases.  

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It’s because they are avoiding putting too much pressure on the 111 service. Good leadership is putting something in place at the right time. I do appreciate that’s less dramatic than using the word ‘collapse’.

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Yes, it is about time those thickos (CMO,CSO and their advisory teams) learned what we experts knew all along.

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Today’s cases caught the virus up to 14 days ago.  Don’t we need to see the effects after a similar period of time?

The CMO said that there were probably 5 to 10 times as many cases as are actually known about. 

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I think that's a rather rash and unfair comment. Perhaps all their colleagues around the world are thickos too? 

Succinct!

👍

 

 

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This seems important

https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/1238841700849778688?s=19 

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There are lots of knowledgeable people around. How do you know our experts are wrong?

In any crisis there are always compelling, dissenting voices.  It’s natural to wonder if the right policies are being followed but it’s a leap to say, with no evidence, that they’re wrong.

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I don't. 

With no evidence and lots of voices we have gone from respecting the experts’ opinion to discounting them. Again I say with no evidence of the efficacy of their or any other approach.

It’s as if enough people complain about the approach then the scientists and medics should change their minds regardless of the lack of any new evidence. I fear that is what will happen this time and what was a well-founded approach (which may or may not be the best one) will be discounted because (some of) the public so not like it

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That's fair enough and I agree actually.