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David M Porter
14 March 2020 17:35:50

I think if the death toll from this coronavirus does reach as high as some are saying it might, then I think there will be recriminations for the government, and big time.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Retron
14 March 2020 17:39:22


Pretty alarming if true. A study in Hong Kong suggests that about 1/4 of the people who recover from COVID-19 have a 20-30% reduction in lung capacity as a result of damage from the virus:


https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1238864032414625792


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


A quarter of nothing is nothing, as the saying goes.


"Drop of 20% to 30% in lung capacity in 2 or 3 of 12 patients."


12 patients just isn't enough to draw any kind of conclusion, really. You'd need at least two orders of magnitude more to get any real sense of the potential risk...

Leysdown, north Kent
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 17:40:00


I think if the death toll from this xoronavirus does reach as high as some are saying it might, then I think there will be recriminations for the government, and big time.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

I’m sure they’ll be damned if they do and damned if they don’t.   We’re not going to stop the numbers rising but they are trying to even out the numbers so the NHS have a chance of saving some. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
xioni2
14 March 2020 17:45:28

There was a journalist from the Sun on BBC and together with an economist they were arguing that lockdowns would be much more difficult here and Brits wouldn't stay at home for long.


This is complete bull IMO, our lot is more disciplined overall than southern Europeans and I have little doubt that if people understood the reasons, then they'd observe the lockdows and stay at home. 

doctormog
14 March 2020 17:46:58


I think if the death toll from this coronavirus does reach as high as some are saying it might, then I think there will be recriminations for the government, and big time.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Like there will be for Spain, Italy and every other country? We could hardly blame the virus now could we.


As Caz says, damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The bottom line is that there is no “easy way out” of this situation and sadly the death toll will increase significantly. That’s not the government’s fault.


How they respond to robust and verifiable evidence should be how they should be judged not on a death toll.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Sevendust
14 March 2020 18:03:28


 


Like there will be for Spain, Italy and every other country? We could hardly blame the virus now could we.


As Caz says, damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The bottom line is that there is no “easy way out” of this situation and sadly the death toll will increase significantly. That’s not the government’s fault.


How they respond to robust and verifiable evidence should be how they should be judged not on a death toll.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Correct

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
14 March 2020 18:04:41


There was a journalist from the Sun on BBC and together with an economist they were arguing that lockdowns would be much more difficult here and Brits wouldn't stay at home for long.


This is complete bull IMO, our lot is more disciplined overall than southern Europeans and I have little doubt that if people understood the reasons, then they'd observe the lockdows and stay at home. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 

I’ve agreed with a lot of your comments in the past 4 threads but I totally disagree with this!  I’m sorry to say I don’t think we are a particularly disciplined lot and I don’t think we have the resources to enforce lockdown either.  People here have already proved how undisciplined they are by ignoring the advice of the 111 service.


It’s been suggested that the psychological approach could be being taken, which I think is more likely to work.  Lead the people into making the decision, then they’re less likely to rebel against it.

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Brian Gaze
14 March 2020 18:12:18

We've now got a dedicated Berkhamsted FB COVID-19 page and most roads in town have their own WhatsApp group. I'm quite impressed with how quickly things are moving locally. Lots of people are already either helping others prepare or offering to help. It's blatantly obvious locals are expecting lock-down soon. No idea whether it will happen. 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Justin W
14 March 2020 18:21:02


 


Like there will be for Spain, Italy and every other country? We could hardly blame the virus now could we.


As Caz says, damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The bottom line is that there is no “easy way out” of this situation and sadly the death toll will increase significantly. That’s not the government’s fault.


How they respond to robust and verifiable evidence should be how they should be judged not on a death toll.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Is a death toll no longer verifiable evidence? 

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
David M Porter
14 March 2020 18:22:39


 


Like there will be for Spain, Italy and every other country? We could hardly blame the virus now could we.


As Caz says, damned if you do and damned if you don’t. The bottom line is that there is no “easy way out” of this situation and sadly the death toll will increase significantly. That’s not the government’s fault.


How they respond to robust and verifiable evidence should be how they should be judged not on a death toll.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


While I agree with what you say in principle Michael, the only point I would make in response is that, IMHO, the effect of the virus on the UK may have been a bit less severe had the government taken a greater degree of action sooner, as Prof John Ashton argued on QT on Thursday night.


My own view is that they should have done more to raise awareness of the seriousness of the virus among the general public in this country at least a month ago, and certainly once it became clear that the virus was getting out of control in Italy. I accept that we were almost certainly never going to be able to keep the coronavirus out of the UK completely, but surely it should have been about mitigation and trying to lessen the effect it was going to have on this country at as early a stage as possible. Had they done that, then for one thing we might have stood more chance of avoiding the situation that has developed in the past fortnight where countless people have been "panic buying" items such as hand sanitiser, hand wash, toilet rolls etc etc.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
14 March 2020 18:23:02


 


Is a death toll no longer verifiable evidence? 


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Not in isolation as verification of a infection control method in a novel unknown situation without a valid comparative control, no it is not. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Justin W
14 March 2020 18:25:24


 


Not In is isolation as verification of a infection control method in a novel unknown situation without a valid comparative control, no it is not. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Not really in isolation though, is it? And it is not an unknown situation either given the data the Chinese have made available.


But I guess I’m just old fashioned in thinking that a mounting death toll (if that is what happens) should be taken into account by Govt scientists and policy makers.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
The Beast from the East
14 March 2020 18:30:40

Yes, it is about time those thickos (CMO,CSO and their advisory teams) learned what we experts knew all along.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Your blind loyalty to the Tory govt is impressive, especially as you still claim to be neutral


Whitty looks like Cummings' long lost brother. When he says all the deaths are from "at risk" groups, what he really means is that they are weak, expendable and of no economic value


This is the most shocking attempt at social engineering since Hitler

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Tim A
14 March 2020 18:34:34
I presume in Spain still lockdown you couldn't even go for a walk in the countryside or around your area unless you were going to a shop?
Pretty sure I could keep 2 metres away from people at all time walking around suburban streets and definately in the countryside.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
doctormog
14 March 2020 18:34:41


 


Not really in isolation though, is it? And it is not an unknown situation either given the data the Chinese have made available.


But I guess I’m just old fashioned in thinking that a mounting death toll (if that is what happens) should be taken into account by Govt scientists and policy makers.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I was simply describing the scientific approach as opposed to a journalistic one. I do not not expect you to agree. 


The analysis done here and elsewhere on a daily basis is not a robust study it is a best guess and I have said it many times only prolonged period of time and in-depth analysis will provide the answer many are understandably looking for. All we can have is a best guess scenario using available expertise and past evidence not daily, weekly or even monthly statistics in the middle of an outbreak.


That aside I never even remotely suggested a mounting death toll should not be taken into consideration for scientists and policy makers just that they should not be judged in response to the death toll, but how they respond to that and other evidence..


Beast it is better day nothing than show your blatant stupidity on this and other matters. I don’t care about the politicos but you are simply to blinkered to see that. Your comment is beyond laughable, it is pathetic. Grow up, eventually all attention seekers have to.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Polar Low
14 March 2020 18:34:46

 To be honest it’s a bit of a unknown for all of us Such limitations might last several months and risk "self-isolation fatigue",


#cant even walk the dog#


 



There was a journalist from the Sun on BBC and together with an economist they were arguing that lockdowns would be much more difficult here and Brits wouldn't stay at home for long.


This is complete bull IMO, our lot is more disciplined overall than southern Europeans and I have little doubt that if people understood the reasons, then they'd observe the lockdows and stay at home. 


Originally Posted by: xioni2 

The Beast from the East
14 March 2020 18:35:33


 


With no evidence and lots of voices we have gone from respecting the experts’ opinion to discounting them. Again I say with no evidence of the efficacy of their or any other approach.


It’s as if enough people complain about the approach then the scientists and medics should change their minds regardless of the lack of any new evidence. I fear that is what will happen this time and what was a well-founded approach (which may or may not be the best one) will be discounted because (some of) the public so not like it


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Its Vallance and Whitty vs the rest of the scientific community and the rest of the world.


I would trust the Chinese and copy what they did. Extreme measures to contain and wait for a vaccine. There may not be a second wave. There wasn't with the previous Corona outbreak in 2003. 


Your Tory govt is willing to sacrifice at least 100,000 to achieve "herd immunity", and it may not be necessary


But hey, we can solve the Social Care crisis


 


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 18:38:15


 


Not really in isolation though, is it? And it is not an unknown situation either given the data the Chinese have made available.


But I guess I’m just old fashioned in thinking that a mounting death toll (if that is what happens) should be taken into account by Govt scientists and policy makers.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


You think it's not taken into account? 😳


This is a rare global pandemic of a novel virus for which nobody has any immunity. Are you suggesting that there's one obvious approach that is better than any other and better than the government's current policy?

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Justin W
14 March 2020 18:38:23


 


I was simply describing the scientific approach as opposed to a journalistic one. I do not not expect you to agree. 


The analysis done here and elsewhere on a daily basis is not a robust study it is a best guess and I have said it many times only prolonged period of time and in-depth analysis will provide the answer many are understandably looking for. All we can have is a best guess scenario using available expertise and past evidence not daily, weekly or even monthly statistics in the middle of an outbreak.


That aside I never even remotely suggested a mounting death toll should not be taken into consideration for scientists and policy makers just that they should not be judged in response to the death toll, but how they respond to that and other evidence..


Beast it is better day nothing than show your blatant stupidity on this and other matters. I don’t care about the politicos but you are simply to blinkered to see that. Your comment is beyond laughable, it is pathetic. Grow up, eventually all attention seekers have to.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


You said that they should not respond to a death toll because it is not verifiable evidence. It’s in two posts above.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Gooner
14 March 2020 18:39:03


 


Its Vallance and Whitty vs the rest of the scientific community and the rest of the world.


I would trust the Chinese and copy what they did. Extreme measures to contain and wait for a vaccine. There may not be a second wave. There wasn't with the previous Corona outbreak in 2003. 


Your Tory govt is willing to sacrifice at least 100,000 to achieve "herd immunity", and it may not be necessary


But hey, we can solve the Social Care crisis


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


One thing is for sure if they ( V & W ) are wrong they will be thrown in the back of a van and taken on a long drive and of course give Boris a get out clause IMO

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


The Beast from the East
14 March 2020 18:39:23


 


 


Beast it is better day nothing than show your blatant stupidity on this and other matters. I don’t care about the politicos but you are simply to blinkered to see that. Your comment is beyond laughable, it is pathetic. Grow up, eventually all attention seekers have to.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I merely observe that you never criticise the Tories on any topic, but claim to be neutral, and then get very sensitive when I point it out


There is nothing wrong with being a Tory, half the country are according to latest polls!

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Justin W
14 March 2020 18:40:09


 


You think it's not taken into account? 😳


This is a rare global pandemic of a novel virus for which nobody has any immunity. Are you suggesting that there's one obvious approach that is better than any other and better than the government's current policy?


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I genuinely have no idea what you are on about.

Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
bowser
14 March 2020 18:41:50
Unsure about this analogy:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=nl6tTwxzCi8
Gandalf The White
14 March 2020 18:45:04


 


Its Vallance and Whitty vs the rest of the scientific community and the rest of the world.


I would trust the Chinese and copy what they did. Extreme measures to contain and wait for a vaccine. There may not be a second wave. There wasn't with the previous Corona outbreak in 2003. 


Your Tory govt is willing to sacrifice at least 100,000 to achieve "herd immunity", and it may not be necessary


But hey, we can solve the Social Care crisis


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


FFS give it a rest Beast.


It is not 'Vallance and Whitty' v the rest of the scientific community; there should be no place for such flippant one-liners in this discussion, nor for unfounded political point-scoring.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
14 March 2020 18:45:42


 


You said that they should not respond to a death toll because it is not verifiable evidence. It’s in two posts above.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


I think we are having crossed wires here Justin. My point is not that they should not react to a death toll but that their currently strategy should not be judged on it.


A high death toll is evidence which can provide a basis for forming future steps but is not evidence for suggesting the existing strategy is not the correct one as there is no way of knowing if the death toll is a result of past action. Sure, you can guess but that’s all it is.


 


Beast, when you have something worth replying to I will do so until then you are coming across as an attention seeking muppet. AS a scientist politics is far from my mind on this issue.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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