They now have to follow the revised advice from the epidemiology team at Imperial.

I guess we'll only know in the days ahead. I would expect sharp rises in that figure in time.

Italy have reported 3,526 new cases and 345 new deaths

Total to 31,506 cases and 2,503 deaths

Don't shoot the messenger but the 250k may yet not be the worst scenario on offer.

Aggressive testing helps Italian town cut new coronavirus cases to zero

https://www.ft.com/content/0dba7ea8-6713-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3?desktop=true&segmentId=d8d3e364-5197-20eb-17cf-2437841d178a

Can you expand on that? Valance earlier was talking about keeping it below 20k, which seems very optimistic!

As nsrobbins said earlier the daily figures will be "noisy" at the moment. Read absolutely nothing into one day's count at this stage. 

Again the testing.

So much evidence and expert advice that massive levels of testing is key, and this government first allowed testing facilities to become overrun, then scaled testing right back (unless you're a politician, footballer or celebrity). 

Surely they should have pumped additional resources in weeks ago as a vital tool in confronting this.

This government has been shambolic from the start, then changed its entire strategy just when the crisis was beginning to accelerate. I hope they're held to account once this has receded.

Now potentially 20,000 but I cant see us getting anywhere near that ( not that I want it )

EUROPEAN LEAGUES TO END DOMESTIC SEASON BY JUNE 30

European leagues have committed to ending all domestic season by June 30, according to a statement released by UEFA.

It is hoped that the current situation improves and resuming playing will be appropriate and prudent enough – finishing exactly a month after the original end date of May 30.

https://www.skysports.com/more-sports/live-blog/32461/11945306/coronavirus-latest-how-outbreak-is-affecting-sport

As in you expect less than that figure? Remember this will run and run, in peaks and troughs, until we've either achieved immunity through a heavily infected>recovered population - in which instance the death toll will be much higher, or a vaccine becomes available to immunise the population. The latter is favoured providing our suppression methods are effective enough. I worry for the winter months; I hope we don't become complacent as a public when the first wave slows.

Just spoke to a neighbour who proudly told me she took her father out to the pub for a pint today...……………….we have no chance at this rate 

That's a huge concern 

I do believe more extreme measures will be introduced on Thursday. This was alluded to by the PM.

Without reading the article I would guess it is connected to contact tracing of people who have tested positive. If these people are all effectively isolated it will have a good chance of stopping any further spread, if other measures are in place.

Meanwhile I am still at work up here (surrounded by over 1000 kids).

I've not heard of any model that is confidently predicting no subsequent waves, and the more people you have that are yet to contract it the more will be susceptible further down the line. There are also some scenarios where there are problems with vaccine traction due to the issues I posted about earlier with recurrence of the virus, which is why there's so much attention being paid now to that. Fingers crossed it is not a big issue and does not delay a good working vaccine.