Quite. We haven't as many attending my school but taken as a percentage of the total school population we'll have around 20% in and we're open for the foreseeable. 

11,539 new cases in the USA already today.

They're rapidly closing in on Italy

We have (within the last hour) been told that our school is now closed to all pupils and staff from tomorrow. Pupils in the middle of frantically preparing coursework, based on the advice given on Friday, are now in a total state of limbo and increasingly stressed. The exams body have said along the lines of “we’re looking into it and will get back to you “soon” regarding certification and coursework” (despite saying they have had contingency plans for weeks).

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Doc I fear tomorrow this school closure will turn into a farce. 

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Wow! For that to come through on a Sunday evening is pretty mad. I'm sorry to read this Doc - many with their futures uncertain left in limbo as you say.

The less said about the exams body the better. I really hope they provide an answer soon. As HW says, there is a furore waiting to happen with all this.

Weekend wiggle or slight flattening?

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Boris more or less said the UK could be days away from a full lockdown with curfews and restrictions on people's movements

German Chancellor Merkel is in self-quarantine at home after a doctor she had contact with tested positive.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul has tested positive for coronavirus he is asymptomatic and 'feeling fine'

It will be - but kudos to the Scots for closing entirely. Exams can, after all, always be taken at a later date, however stressful that may be - whereas we only get one go at slowing the spread of this thing. (Interesting how social distancing has yet again been emphasised by the PM; I'd bet there are tens of thousands of people in schools in England tomorrow not following that advice).

Meanwhile to counter the "OMG, someone in their 30s is seriously ill!!!" stories doing the rounds, here's one about the head of BT's experience. I think for people's mental wellbeing it's good to see these stories too. He's 53, for what it's worth.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/22/bt-boss-philip-jansen-first-felt-like-mild-cold-had-virus/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Philip Jansen has been lucky. “I actually had relatively mild symptoms,” says the BT boss down the line from his home in Devon. “I had a cough, a few aches and pains, a bit of a headache and even a few chills. But I never had a temperature. So I never felt at any stage that I was really unwell. I just felt that I was a little bit under the weather. I assumed I had a mild cold.”

Since the truth was revealed, Jansen has been self-isolating alongside his wife and three of their children. All have caught coronavirus, he believes, and all are recovering. The origin of the family outbreak is a mystery. Jansen, 53, had been on a ski trip with friends, “but not to a place where it existed”.

He was the first big business figure to publicly reveal he had tested positive, on Thursday March 12, after a few days of symptoms and meetings including one with the Culture Secretary and several of his industry rivals.

A week later he is on the mend, with a note of fatigue in his voice but no cough. Jansen has been working throughout his illness, he says, and plans to be back at BT headquarters in London on Monday.

 

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An RAF Airbus 400M has landed in Sumburgh to evacuate a coronavirus patient to an intensive care unit.

Testing has been fluctuating. Equally tests are taking up

to 5 days to come back. Total positives I think are not telling us if this is levelling off.

 

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On the mend - but could still be shedding the virus. Being back at BT HQ tomorrow is downright irresponsible.

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The fall in deaths is more promising. The numbers now should be at a level where there isn't a lot of noise I would have thought. 

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There was a slight flattening of the curve last Sunday (15th) too. Coincidence?

Unwise to infer a trend from the data from one day.

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Yes, I knew you would be able to rely on the betting industry to exploit misery. Have they got odds out yet on how many will die in the UK each day?

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Yes, I'm cautiously encouraged. But I think we need to track a moving average over 3-5 days to allow for inevitable fluctuations.

This really is a time when the distinction between data and information is critically important. I know there's an urge to paw over every piece of data but raw data alone has limited value, IMO, because of all the uncertainties.

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Yes I agree with you both. I’m sure there is a better way to deal with this or at least some better way of communicating things.

And yes Darren you’re right that the exams can be taken at a later date, in fact that would be ideal. It is the lack of clarity and communication that is causing horrendous amounts of stress. Our senior leadership have been working all weekend on the logistics following Friday’s direct advice to get coursework done in the coming week only to be told on Sunday afternoon that nobody should be doing that. If they just made a clear, detailed concrete decision and stick with it, whatever it is, it would be better. The changing of approach at the 11th hour three times in five days is a disgrace and unfair to all involved.

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Oh, but the poor betting industry must really be struggling with no sport being played.

No doubt they're busy trying to dream up new ways to part punters from their money.

Maybe the number of posts in the TWO daily Coronavirus thread?

 

 

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Yes, the lack of a clear message is very poor. My brother has daughters doing GCSEs and A-Levels next term and was understandably irritated by this.

Even if the details haven't been worked out, it just needs a clear "Nobody will be disadvantaged by the decision to cancel the exams."

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The deaths today were of ages between 18 and 102

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This is the tracker I follow. Don't think it has updated yet to include the latest figures.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3d6015ac-6bb2-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260

 

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They need a police car driving slowly next to them with a megaphone saying that they are in the suicide queue! Seriously, if the government put in the right rules it is simple to stop this. But they still aren't. I was horrified to see Johnson have a s[censored]ing disparaging reaction to the reporter that asked him when the police were going to be involved. He went "police??" then laughed as if it was the most ridiculous question anybody could ask. Is he not seeing these images?

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Why is the UK death rate so high?

Lack of testing? Maybe. UK testing is high but it's only moderately high when looking on a per capita basis

Other countries not counting COVID deaths? Maybe. Germany might be doing this in particular with patients with comorbidities

Health care just not as good? Quite possibly. NHS just is not that good compared to the rest of Europe.

 

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I posted a few days ago the email I got from one such firm offering spreads on the number of times Boris mentioned certain buzzwords in his daily speeches. 

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