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xioni2
24 March 2020 12:07:45


In an ideal world, mass testing would find that half the population have it or have had it.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


We just don't know this and that's the problem.

Roger Parsons
24 March 2020 12:08:23


IIRC their CFR data don’t record all deaths as Covid-19 if there was another underlying health condition.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


I get their point, Gandalf. There is a big difference between KILLED BY CO-19 and FINISHED OFF by CO-19 whilst suffering poor health and therefore especially vulnerable. I would say both cohorts should be clearly identified, the direct victims AND the collateral deaths. This is why any testing needs to be of a representative sample, so we can see where the virus is being found. If the data is not adequate we could be missing a trick or barking up the wrong tree. That's why so many folks here are exasperated by the statistics.


Keep safe.


Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
xioni2
24 March 2020 12:11:23


So you are making an assertion without any basis in fact.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


That's his MO.


Rob K
24 March 2020 12:11:47
Still a steady stream of planes overhead, both high altitude ones on transatlantic routes and arrivals starting their approach to Heathrow.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
24 March 2020 12:12:10
Public Health Wales have announced 1 new death rising the total from 16 to 17

Maunder Minimum
24 March 2020 12:12:38


 


So you are making an assertion without any basis in fact.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


If 50% of the population have had it, then we are on the way to achieving herd immunity.


New world order coming.
xioni2
24 March 2020 12:13:05

Still a steady stream of planes overhead, both high altitude ones on transatlantic routes and arrivals starting their approach to Heathrow.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The globalists/buildenbergers are still spraying us! Mind control never stops!

speckledjim
24 March 2020 12:14:28

Still a steady stream of planes overhead, both high altitude ones on transatlantic routes and arrivals starting their approach to Heathrow.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


we still need to trade


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gavin D
24 March 2020 12:15:44

HIV drug to be trialled on coronavirus patients to see if they can fight Covid-19


 



"Coronavirus patients will be treated with an HIV drug or steroid as part of trial to see if existing medications can beat the deadly infection. Researchers from the University of Oxford enrolled the first patient last week, and want hospitals to sign up thousands more people in the coming weeks.  The trial – which has been expedited by the chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, would usually have taken around 18 months to organise, but red tape has been removed and researchers have worked round the clock to get the experiment up and running within just nine days.


The treatments which will be used are the HIV combination drug Lopinavir-Ritonavir and the steroid dexamethasone, used for people with severe asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to reduce inflammation.  Both drugs are known to be safe and, in the coming weeks, the anti-malarial drug antimalarial hydroxychloroquine is likely to be added to the trial treatments and patients randomly assigned one of the three.  Anyone who tests positive for coronavirus in NHS hospitals will be offered the chance to join the "Recovery" trial.


They are hoping the HIV drug will stop the virus from replication, while the steroid may prevent inflammation in the lungs, which causes respiratory collapse. Martin Landray, professor of medicine and epidemiology at the Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, and deputy chief investigator, added: "Both drugs have a good biological background and clinical base behind them and their safety is well known. They are also available and scaleable. The chief medical officer has made this a national priority study, and we've managed to do in nine days what would normally take nine to 18 months. The ability to get a trial up and running at the beginning of an epidemic gives us the best hope as it means the trial is part of the treatment. It is an incredible opportunity to make progress rapidly in very difficult circumstances."


 


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/23/hiv-drug-trialled-coronavirus-patients-see-can-fight-covid-19/



 

 

Maunder Minimum
24 March 2020 12:17:56

Useful innovative work being done in Wales - I particularly like the snood which looks easier to wear and easier on the eye than a traditional face mask:


https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52013888 


 


Mass production has begun of a snood-type mask, which designers say can kill this coronavirus - potentially helping protect frontline workers and the vulnerable.


The company behind it hopes to make as many as a million-a-week and plans to reserve part of that stock for the NHS.


"We have been working on the anti-viral coating since 2011 but it's only in the last five weeks that we have developed the snood in response to the current pandemic," said Anna Roberts, of Virustatic Shield.


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
24 March 2020 12:18:20

Taken at face value the Wales data suggests the UK could be past peak corona just as the lock-down is being implemented. It's very difficult to know what is going on. Ironic if the rate accelerates in the next couple of weeks. What then?


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Rob K
24 March 2020 12:19:01
A solution to my work situation: I am about to drive over to the office in Guildford and pick up the equipment I need from the car park, with no human contact!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
speckledjim
24 March 2020 12:23:32


Taken at face value the Wales data suggests the UK could be past peak corona just as the lock-down is being implemented. It's very difficult to know what is going on. Ironic if the rate accelerates in the next couple of weeks. What then?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


There will be a lag of at least 2 weeks before we could expect to see the death rate drop 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Gooner
24 March 2020 12:24:07


 


If 50% of the population have had it, then we are on the way to achieving herd immunity.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


And I don't believe they have 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
24 March 2020 12:25:15
Breaking: Tokyo Olympics postponed to 2021
Gooner
24 March 2020 12:28:24


 


The article also says:


"Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?


The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have."


I think that is the point Hunt is making. By only testing the seriously ill you do not have any handle on the scale of the problem building up in the community and whether the measures being taken are working.


We will remain in headless chicken mode unless we try to take a science-based approach.


A big problem with govt is that there are so few people with a scientific background - and the few that are have spent so much time clambering up the greasy pole that their thinking is seriously compromised by fear of falling off it.


Originally Posted by: RobN 


And that's a real problem , we will have false numbers and just when we think we are on top another wave will hit the hospitals 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gavin D
24 March 2020 12:29:34
Public Health Wales have announced 60 new cases a fall off 11 compared to yesterday.

Wales' total is now 478
Brian Gaze
24 March 2020 12:30:39


 


There will be a lag of at least 2 weeks before we could expect to see the death rate drop 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Possibly. I'm not convinced. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Maunder Minimum
24 March 2020 12:33:35


 


Possibly. I'm not convinced. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


As some have been saying, the majority of the population (outside London) have been following official guidance for the past week or two - so we are hopefully seeing the effects of that in the stats already.


London is a different place - will probably take a further two weeks before improvements are seen there.


New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
24 March 2020 12:40:31

The anti-viral snood was actually developed in Manchester, not Wales - it has been in development since 2011, so its appearance on the market could not have been more opportune. Don't know how it works, but it is claimed to provide a shield against the corona virus, amongst others:


http://www.retailtimes.co.uk/breakthrough-in-germ-trap-technology-offers-new-hope-in-stopping-spread-of-viruses/


 


New world order coming.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 12:47:08


Taken at face value the Wales data suggests the UK could be past peak corona just as the lock-down is being implemented. It's very difficult to know what is going on. Ironic if the rate accelerates in the next couple of weeks. What then?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

It does seem ironic Brian!  I honestly wonder if this virus is losing its strength. If only!  I’ve just had a teary moment, when our son came to collect some stuff from our garage and he had to stand well clear of us.  

Anyway, with dry eyes again and a sensible head!


The rate of acceleration over the next two weeks will tell us nothing about these lockdown measures.  It will be the following two weeks that will, due to incubation and symptom lag. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
speckledjim
24 March 2020 12:48:19


 


Possibly. I'm not convinced. 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


All the medical stats suggest that those who die have the virus for at least 2 weeks before passing away so there is bound to be a lag


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Maunder Minimum
24 March 2020 12:50:16


 


All the medical stats suggest that those who die have the virus for at least 2 weeks before passing away so there is bound to be a lag


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Which is why we could be seeing the effects of behavioural changes from two weeks ago.


Most sensible people could see what was happening in Italy and many started to self isolate without needing to be told.


Look at people on here - all of us, with the exception of Beast I think, have been sensible for weeks.


New world order coming.
Heavy Weather 2013
24 March 2020 12:50:26


It does seem ironic Brian!  I honestly wonder if this virus is losing its strength. If only!  I’ve just had a teary moment, when our son came to collect some stuff from our garage and he had to stand well clear of us.  

Anyway, with dry eyes again and a sensible head!


The rate of acceleration over the next two weeks will tell us nothing about these lockdown measures.  It will be the following two weeks that will, due to incubation and symptom lag. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Yes agreed Caz. I want to be optimistic, but we have to be realistic. In the three days up to yesterday we had 40% of positive new cases. That suggests there is a lot to wash through at the moment. 

How that will play out in the next few days is anyone’s guess. But we have to assume that with a three week lockdown officials behind the scenes must be worried with what they are seeing. 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
warrenb
24 March 2020 12:52:30
I believe (and going by local standards) that most people outside London have indeed been following the advice to stay indoors (with exceptions) and we are now possibly starting to see a little fruit from this, but I also suspect we will see London roaring ahead of the rest of the country over the coming week. Remember in places like Wales where the communities are further apart, it will only take a small amount of isolating to bear fruit.

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