The article also says:
"Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have."
I think that is the point Hunt is making. By only testing the seriously ill you do not have any handle on the scale of the problem building up in the community and whether the measures being taken are working.
We will remain in headless chicken mode unless we try to take a science-based approach.
A big problem with govt is that there are so few people with a scientific background - and the few that are have spent so much time clambering up the greasy pole that their thinking is seriously compromised by fear of falling off it.
Originally Posted by: RobN