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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 12:54:28


 


And I don't believe they have 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 

But it’s not an ideal world either. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Gooner
24 March 2020 12:57:14


Taken at face value the Wales data suggests the UK could be past peak corona just as the lock-down is being implemented. It's very difficult to know what is going on. Ironic if the rate accelerates in the next couple of weeks. What then?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


If by some lucky chance that is the case they we have been completely misinformed 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 12:58:33


 


Which is why we could be seeing the effects of behavioural changes from two weeks ago.


Most sensible people could see what was happening in Italy and many started to self isolate without needing to be told.


Look at people on here - all of us, with the exception of Beast I think, have been sensible for weeks.


Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Yes that’s absolutely right and most people I know have taken sensible measures. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Gandalf The White
24 March 2020 12:59:57


 


If by some lucky chance that is the case they we have been completely misinformed 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Not really: people have been changing their behaviour for a couple of weeks now. Increasing numbers working from home; events cancelled. You would hope to see some effect around now.


 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
24 March 2020 13:02:53
Away from the supermarkets people up here in the north east seemed to start and isolate well before official advice. Not seen any large groups today in the dog walkers in the local park have fallen in numbers significantly over the last week or 2
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 13:03:13


 


Yes agreed Caz. I want to be optimistic, but we have to be realistic. In the three days up to yesterday we had 40% of positive new cases. That suggests there is a lot to wash through at the moment. 

How that will play out in the next few days is anyone’s guess. But we have to assume that with a three week lockdown officials behind the scenes must be worried with what they are seeing. 


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Yes I know.  We need optimism but realism too!  I think I’m about to go into meltdown mode!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Brian Gaze
24 March 2020 13:05:44

A part of me (may be 20%) wonders whether the modelling of this is complete garbage. There are clearly known unknowns and almost certainly unknown unknowns too. The problem is that revisiting things would require a massive leap of faith and could very quickly result in huge numbers of deaths. It beggars belief that there aren't randomised data samples in this country or others at the present time. If there were there is a small chance that we could save £$E trillions. Very confused.  


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gooner
24 March 2020 13:06:47


 


Not really: people have been changing their behaviour for a couple of weeks now. Increasing numbers working from home; events cancelled. You would hope to see some effect around now.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Disagree with you - sorry 


We are only really at the start of any habit change , yet last week we were still being told we are only at the start of the upward curve , and Boris said 12 weeks ( to the amazement of his "experts") 


So I really would say we have been misinformed or someone got their calculations wrong when looking at a Bell curve etc or whatever computer model they consulted 


 


See Brian's post above 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
24 March 2020 13:07:27


 


Not really: people have been changing their behaviour for a couple of weeks now. Increasing numbers working from home; events cancelled. You would hope to see some effect around now.


 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Dare we just hope the figures show something positive today?    If they do, then this lock down will be even more worth it!


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Gandalf The White
24 March 2020 13:11:39


Taken at face value the Wales data suggests the UK could be past peak corona just as the lock-down is being implemented. It's very difficult to know what is going on. Ironic if the rate accelerates in the next couple of weeks. What then?


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


With an incubation period of around two weeks any acceleration between now and then would surely just reflect the position over the last two weeks?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
24 March 2020 13:17:59


Dare we just hope the figures show something positive today?    If they do, then this lock down will be even more worth it!


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Hi Caz,


That would be very good and mildly reassuring but I think it's likely that there will be up and downs day to day so it's the trend over a few days that's more important.


I guess my concern is the anecdotal evidence from hospitals and medical/nursing staff, but of course that reflects what's happened not necessarily what's going to happen.


 


Roads around here are very very quiet and very few people out walking.  Local shop had a queue of 4 people outside; they're only allowing three in at any one time.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
24 March 2020 13:18:44
The Netherlands have reported 811 new cases and 63 new deaths

A new daily high for both
picturesareme
24 March 2020 13:18:48


It does seem ironic Brian!  I honestly wonder if this virus is losing its strength. If only!  I’ve just had a teary moment, when our son came to collect some stuff from our garage and he had to stand well clear of us.  

Anyway, with dry eyes again and a sensible head!


The rate of acceleration over the next two weeks will tell us nothing about these lockdown measures.  It will be the following two weeks that will, due to incubation and symptom lag. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Probably not a case of it losing its strength. A lack of large scale general testing amongst the global masses has led to a huge lack of  data. I suspect crucially data that would have shown this virus to have been far far more widespread than the 10-20× commonly mentioned.


The thing with it being more prevalent would also indicate it being less severe.. however the media & politicians have repeatedly used Italy and now Spain to create a draconian picture of this virus to justify lockdowns whilst refusing to do mass testing. If it was possible to test the entire italian population today i wouldn't be surprised if near half the population tested positive.


Take Germany who have 30,000 confirmed cases. I suspect unlike many countries they have been carrying out mass testing. They're death rate is 0.4% currently which is similar to a bad flu season..


 

Gandalf The White
24 March 2020 13:24:47


 


Disagree with you - sorry 


We are only really at the start of any habit change , yet last week we were still being told we are only at the start of the upward curve , and Boris said 12 weeks ( to the amazement of his "experts") 


So I really would say we have been misinformed or someone got their calculations wrong when looking at a Bell curve etc or whatever computer model they consulted 


 


See Brian's post above 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Not around here. I mentioned last week how empty the station car park was.  It's been getting progressively quieter in town away from the supermarkets. All three of our neighbours started working from home a week ago or more. 


We have absolutely not been misinformed - just look at the graphs and the assumptions.  The unknown is the effect of personal behaviours on the transmission rate (R0): if that's coming down because enough people are doing the right things then that's both within the range of assumptions in the modelling and excellent news.


Why does a question mark over our understanding of what's happening have to translate into 'we have been misinformed or the calculations are wrong'??? There's precious little logic for that, IMO.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
24 March 2020 13:25:07
Iran have reported 1,762 new cases and 122 new deaths

A new daily record for official new cases whilst new deaths are the lowest since March 20th
xioni2
24 March 2020 13:25:23

The Netherlands have reported 811 new cases and 63 new deaths

A new daily high for both

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


As Arcus had said, for a time they had decided to follow the British herd immunity strategy. I think they have now changed course too. 

Gavin D
24 March 2020 13:27:33

Oh dear. Can't open his shops so hikes up some prices!


 


 


 



JHutch
24 March 2020 13:32:40

There are going to be some big economic stats to come in the next few weeks/months/years but wow


 



Gavin D
24 March 2020 13:34:08

Coronavirus: US may become global epicentre of COVID-19 outbreak, says World Health Organization




Quote


 The US has the potential to become the new global epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the World Health Organization. More than 46,000 cases and 530 deaths have so far been reported in America, with more than 20,000 in New York state alone. A spokeswoman for the World Health Organization (WHO) said the country could soon see a surge akin to those experienced across Europe.


Earlier, US President Donald Trump admitted his government was experiencing difficulties in securing lifesaving medical equipment. He tweeted: "The World market for face masks and ventilators is Crazy. We are helping the states to get equipment, but it is not easy." In New York - one of the world's biggest virus hotspots - authorities rushed to set up thousands of hospital beds they will need to protect the city's 8.4 million people. More than 12,000 people have tested positive in the city and 125 have died, with a state-wide lockdown taking effect since Monday. 





https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-spains-death-toll-rises-by-514-in-one-day-to-2-696-11962778


Gavin D
24 March 2020 13:48:07
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced 2 new deaths in Scotland taking the total from 14 to 16
Phil G
24 March 2020 13:49:24
15 mins on BBC news there was a Q&A about the virus.
Q. Can I drive in my car for about an hour to somewhere remote, run for half an hour on my own then cone home again.
Answer given - Yes.
Now I thought this was a stay at home policy.
There are still discussions on what is essential to daily life. Anyone doing this will need petrol, going into a garage with the risk of receiving/spreading the disease.
I can't believe the answer was yes. This opens the door for loads of others tomgo for drives in cars. They will need petrol.
All this about saving lives through any chance of contact?
xioni2
24 March 2020 13:49:57


A part of me (may be 20%) wonders whether the modelling of this is complete garbage. . 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


The modelling is likely to be unreliable. There is no precedent, the data is limited  and there are  many unknowns. 

Roger Parsons
24 March 2020 13:51:47

I don't know how you folks find time to read and respond to the multitude of posts on this thread or hope to do them justice. It's a torrent of facts and opinions, but in such a tsunami of information that all kinds of things can be [and are] missed. I admire you, but I can't keep up with you. Today has been spent on updating a webpage for local primary school use, communicating with friends around with world, editing the weekly newsletter I produce [out tomorrow], bleeding the bleeding radiators, caring for my sourdough starter [baking tomorrow], reading a 2009 textbook I had on Toxico-terrorism - good chapter on SARS/Coronovirus, and walking in the limewoods with my good lady with roe deer barking. Put simply, my priority now is to have as much time with her as I can and to have fun, for reasons which will be obvious to you all. If you should want to tweak me at some point - try a PM - as I may well be watching. I might post sometime if inspired.
Look after yourselves and those who are important to you.
Bye.
Roger


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Gavin D
24 March 2020 13:52:07
China have reported 78 new confirmed cases, 7 new deaths (all in Hubei) and 35 new suspected cases.

xioni2
24 March 2020 13:52:56

15 mins on BBC news there was a Q&A about the virus.
Q. Can I drive in my car for about an hour to somewhere remote, run for half an hour on my own then cone home again.
Answer given - Yes.
Now I thought this was a stay at home policy.
There are still discussions on what is essential to daily life. Anyone doing this will need petrol, going into a garage with the risk of receiving/spreading the disease.
I can't believe the answer was yes. This opens the door for loads of others tomgo for drives in cars. They will need petrol.
All this about saving lives through any chance of contact?

Originally Posted by: Phil G 


I think your are right and that's why some European countries have banned driving, unless its very close to home.

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