But it’s not an ideal world either. 

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If by some lucky chance that is the case they we have been completely misinformed 

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Yes that’s absolutely right and most people I know have taken sensible measures. 

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Not really: people have been changing their behaviour for a couple of weeks now. Increasing numbers working from home; events cancelled. You would hope to see some effect around now.

 

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Away from the supermarkets people up here in the north east seemed to start and isolate well before official advice. Not seen any large groups today in the dog walkers in the local park have fallen in numbers significantly over the last week or 2

Yes I know.  We need optimism but realism too!  I think I’m about to go into meltdown mode!  

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A part of me (may be 20%) wonders whether the modelling of this is complete garbage. There are clearly known unknowns and almost certainly unknown unknowns too. The problem is that revisiting things would require a massive leap of faith and could very quickly result in huge numbers of deaths. It beggars belief that there aren't randomised data samples in this country or others at the present time. If there were there is a small chance that we could save £$E trillions. Very confused.  

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Disagree with you - sorry 

We are only really at the start of any habit change , yet last week we were still being told we are only at the start of the upward curve , and Boris said 12 weeks ( to the amazement of his "experts") 

So I really would say we have been misinformed or someone got their calculations wrong when looking at a Bell curve etc or whatever computer model they consulted 

 

See Brian's post above 

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Dare we just hope the figures show something positive today?    If they do, then this lock down will be even more worth it!

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With an incubation period of around two weeks any acceleration between now and then would surely just reflect the position over the last two weeks?

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Hi Caz,

That would be very good and mildly reassuring but I think it's likely that there will be up and downs day to day so it's the trend over a few days that's more important.

I guess my concern is the anecdotal evidence from hospitals and medical/nursing staff, but of course that reflects what's happened not necessarily what's going to happen.

 

Roads around here are very very quiet and very few people out walking.  Local shop had a queue of 4 people outside; they're only allowing three in at any one time.

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The Netherlands have reported 811 new cases and 63 new deaths

A new daily high for both

Probably not a case of it losing its strength. A lack of large scale general testing amongst the global masses has led to a huge lack of  data. I suspect crucially data that would have shown this virus to have been far far more widespread than the 10-20× commonly mentioned.

The thing with it being more prevalent would also indicate it being less severe.. however the media & politicians have repeatedly used Italy and now Spain to create a draconian picture of this virus to justify lockdowns whilst refusing to do mass testing. If it was possible to test the entire italian population today i wouldn't be surprised if near half the population tested positive.

Take Germany who have 30,000 confirmed cases. I suspect unlike many countries they have been carrying out mass testing. They're death rate is 0.4% currently which is similar to a bad flu season..

 

Not around here. I mentioned last week how empty the station car park was.  It's been getting progressively quieter in town away from the supermarkets. All three of our neighbours started working from home a week ago or more. 

We have absolutely not been misinformed - just look at the graphs and the assumptions.  The unknown is the effect of personal behaviours on the transmission rate (R0): if that's coming down because enough people are doing the right things then that's both within the range of assumptions in the modelling and excellent news.

Why does a question mark over our understanding of what's happening have to translate into 'we have been misinformed or the calculations are wrong'??? There's precious little logic for that, IMO.

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Iran have reported 1,762 new cases and 122 new deaths

A new daily record for official new cases whilst new deaths are the lowest since March 20th

As Arcus had said, for a time they had decided to follow the British herd immunity strategy. I think they have now changed course too. 

Oh dear. Can't open his shops so hikes up some prices!

 

 

 

#Breaking Sports Direct has hiked prices of some sports equipment, including skipping ropes, weights and resistance belts, by more than 50% in some cases on Tuesday, according to documents seen by the PA news agency

— PA Media (@PA) March 24, 2020

There are going to be some big economic stats to come in the next few weeks/months/years but wow

 

NEW: Unemployment in Norway is now at 10.4%. The highest level for 75 years.

It has doubled in a week.

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) March 24, 2020

​Coronavirus: US may become global epicentre of COVID-19 outbreak, says World Health Organization

Quote

 The US has the potential to become the new global epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the World Health Organization. More than 46,000 cases and 530 deaths have so far been reported in America, with more than 20,000 in New York state alone. A spokeswoman for the World Health Organization (WHO) said the country could soon see a surge akin to those experienced across Europe.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump admitted his government was experiencing difficulties in securing lifesaving medical equipment. He tweeted: "The World market for face masks and ventilators is Crazy. We are helping the states to get equipment, but it is not easy." In New York - one of the world's biggest virus hotspots - authorities rushed to set up thousands of hospital beds they will need to protect the city's 8.4 million people. More than 12,000 people have tested positive in the city and 125 have died, with a state-wide lockdown taking effect since Monday. 

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-spains-death-toll-rises-by-514-in-one-day-to-2-696-11962778

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First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced 2 new deaths in Scotland taking the total from 14 to 16

15 mins on BBC news there was a Q&A about the virus.
Q. Can I drive in my car for about an hour to somewhere remote, run for half an hour on my own then cone home again.
Answer given - Yes.
Now I thought this was a stay at home policy.
There are still discussions on what is essential to daily life. Anyone doing this will need petrol, going into a garage with the risk of receiving/spreading the disease.
I can't believe the answer was yes. This opens the door for loads of others tomgo for drives in cars. They will need petrol.
All this about saving lives through any chance of contact?

The modelling is likely to be unreliable. There is no precedent, the data is limited  and there are  many unknowns. 

I don't know how you folks find time to read and respond to the multitude of posts on this thread or hope to do them justice. It's a torrent of facts and opinions, but in such a tsunami of information that all kinds of things can be [and are] missed. I admire you, but I can't keep up with you. Today has been spent on updating a webpage for local primary school use, communicating with friends around with world, editing the weekly newsletter I produce [out tomorrow], bleeding the bleeding radiators, caring for my sourdough starter [baking tomorrow], reading a 2009 textbook I had on Toxico-terrorism - good chapter on SARS/Coronovirus, and walking in the limewoods with my good lady with roe deer barking. Put simply, my priority now is to have as much time with her as I can and to have fun, for reasons which will be obvious to you all. If you should want to tweak me at some point - try a PM - as I may well be watching. I might post sometime if inspired.
Look after yourselves and those who are important to you.
Bye.
Roger

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China have reported 78 new confirmed cases, 7 new deaths (all in Hubei) and 35 new suspected cases.

I think your are right and that's why some European countries have banned driving, unless its very close to home.