FWIW I think a trick was missed by calling this COVID-19. Had it been SARS-lightning or something similar the shock and awe would have made people change their behaviour a lot sooner.

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This is really interesting and , dare I say it, possibly just a tad hopeful when comparisons with Italy keep being made.... pic.twitter.com/k9vHQkxENn

— Mark Austin (@markaustintv) March 26, 2020

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Is anyone else suspicious of this data? It seems highly improbable that 100% of new cases are being 'imported': the temptation to bundle the local cases under that heading must be immense, given the propaganda machine message that The Party has been triumphant in eradicating their epidemic. 

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Germany have reported 2,032 new cases and 16 new deaths in the overnight update

This is indeed a brightspot. Long may it continue.

Apprently on news night last night there was an expert saying PHE now have to get consent from the family to release if they died from COVID-19. I’m not sure how true that is though.

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That’s a global economy for you!  Perhaps this could be a lesson in what’s needed in house and what can be manufactured in house!  It would be a boost to our economy and the environment too if products don’t have to be transported far.  So many lessons can be learnt from this. Let’s hope we take note!

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The snag is, yesterday's death data was incomplete. Today's leap (assuming it's with complete data) should be much higher.

As for the bit about having to get consent, hopefully that's not true. It'd make the figures almost meaningless if it was - and should overridden by the government if so.

 

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Of course.

The mixture of propoganda, mixed testing and variable practices means that most figures should contain a health warning.

India, Iran and Russia would also be highly suspect

You’re right that most tests are coming back negative, but what those tests can’t tell us is whether that person has already had it.  

I’d like to believe there are many more people who have had it and are now immune. From all the global reports and the way this has spread, it seems possible.  But that’s only me holding my half full glass. It’s nothing scientific.  We won’t know until antibody tests are widely available and until they are, our priority is looking after the worst affected while keeping the NHS afloat. 

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You’re right I noticed earlier that the figures were not for the full 24hrs. I wonder what was happening yesterday the Figures came out so late 

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It makes me wonder if China has reached the much maligned ‘herd immunity’, if their only new cases are imported rather than community transmitted.

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Even so, the trajectory (excluding yesterday’s data) is clearly less steep than Spain or Italy. I do think it is encouraging.

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Yes quite right. People saying it is scary - that video of the Excel centre for instance - but I find it quite reassuring that they are putting in all this extra capacity. 

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JFF model predicts 1491 cases today.

The three day periodicity would suggest it would be lower than this though.

Anything significantly greater would indicate a modelling failure.

 

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True, it's good to see - I'm hopeful that in around 2 weeks there'll be a marked slowdown / levelling off on the logarithmic graphs.

Worth mentioning again just how good the FT's data page is - graphs for each of the countries (scroll down to see them).

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

 

 

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Why am I not surprised by this  :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52043896

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Can we see the underlying methodology for this, please?

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I went over it in detail in a previous thread either yesterday or the day before in response to you asking then. I'll try and find the post.

 

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Interestingly I have developed a dry but intermittent cough during the last 2 nights. My temperature measured this morning was 36.7C and oxygen saturation 98%. Both normal. However, since I returned from Finland less than 14 days before the symptoms started I am considering coronavirus as a possibility. The cough could also be a legacy of the cold I recently had but for me that would be an unusual development.

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From Chris Smyth, The Times 

Death figures update: last night only 28 new fatalities recorded.

Alas this is not good news, it is because there are now so many deaths NHS using a 7.30am cut off instead of 1pm.

So govt looking at changing how they are reported 1/2

We may not get any death figures today, as they are looking at moving to publishing first thing in the morning.

Aim is to give more time to collate NHS data and inform families before ages and locations made public 2/2

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As I keep reiterating, all statistics are indicative only - especially for countries like China.

There is an article in the Guardian today about Indonesia - their figures are low because they have not been testing and have been studiously ignoring the epidemic there - but as for Turkey, there comes a tipping point where that is no longer possible since everyone can see what is happening - that tipping point has been reached in Indonesia:

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/mar/26/indonesia-could-have-thousands-of-hidden-coronavirus-cases-study-says

"...

On Monday, it was estimated by academics at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine that as few as 2% of Indonesia’s coronavirus infections have been reported.

..."

 

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Thanks. Sorry I missed it.

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I haven't read these threads since last evening, so apologies if already mentioned:

The rapid (antibodies?) tests that Spain got from China are not accurate (only 30% accuracy) https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-25/los-test-rapidos-de-coronavirus-comprados-en-china-no-funcionan.html

Also as I thought, the police has started recording a significant drop in crime in the UK and Moscow announced a lockdown.

 

I was sent a link to a Newsnight interview with a minister about ventilators, but it was unwatchable. The way they lie to us and treat us like children is infuriating.

An interesting read on how the Spanish govt and the authorities there messed up big time

"“Spain will only have a handful of cases,” said Dr Fernando Simón, the head of medical emergencies in Madrid, on 9 February. In late February and early March, with temperatures above 20C (68F), Madrid’s pavement cafes and bars were heaving with happy folk, doing what Madrileños like best – being sociable. That means hugging, kissing and animated chatter just a few inches from someone else’s face. On 8 March, just a week before the country was closed down, sports events, political party conferences and massive demonstrations to mark International Women’s Day all took place. 

The Socialist-led government of Pedro Sánchez reacted late and clumsily. The country lacked essential equipment. Ventilators, protective clothing for doctors and coronavirus tests are still only just being sourced.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/spain-coronavirus-response-analysis 

I can't find the post, I think it might have been two days ago.

Anyway the upshot was this. The function I'm using to model it looks like this:

 

Aexp(B(t-t0)^2 + C(t-t0)) + F

A: Essentially an integration constant, could be useful to add additional complexities like changes in how testing is conducted.

B: The parameter that 'bends the exponential'. B should be small and negitive, that way the function begins as an exponential but with a slowly decreasing time dependent R0. Initially the function looks like an exponential, later it becomes a Gausian when B dominates over C

C: Related to the initial exponential growth. Should be fit to the beginning of the sustained localized 'exponential' transmission phase. A C value of 0.9 roughly corresponds to an R0 of 2.5

t0: A lag parameter. Just to allow the function to approppiately start at the right time

F: Unphysical constant. Recomment keeping this at 0 ideally.

 

If you want to model the three day periodicity then you could incoperate a sinusodial variation into A (for example A=0.1cos(2pi/3t) +1 )

 

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