If you have seen what is happening in Spain, Italy even with the lockdown, then I assume, if your preferred scenario was adopted, that you would be one of those volunteering to shovel the bodies into makeshift graves.

Originally Posted by: RobN 

I accept all that, but its about finding the right balance. Locking down too hard  will IMO lead to more social, emotion and physical problems than the virus itself

We dont have a vaccine and until we do, the virus will start spreading again anyway once restrictions are lifted. 

We just have to accept a certain number of deaths that our health system can cope with, until herd immunity is achieved by default 

HMG seems to have got the restrictions about right, though I would like pubs to reopen with social distancing. We are able to go for walks and to supermarkets, unlike the Italians, so people can release the tension a bit

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

It will get worse, but be over  soon. April 12 may be the peak as latest forecasts suggests

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I personally, am enjoying the slower pace of life!

Originally Posted by: Caz 

The death rate will be higher in these countries for reasons we have discussed - they live on top of each other and many have smoked all their lives etc

Our death rate will be much less as Ferguson of Imperial says

BTW, I have been volunteering to get shopping for the old codger next door. It gives me the excuse I need to go to out more than once a day! 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

NHS:

ICU capacity question. Not answered.

We are not yet at capacity, but he hasn’t answered the question Of how many are occupied.

Focus on nightingale. Smoke and mirrors.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I drove through Dorking earlier today and I just couldn't believe what I was seeing. Long queues outside several shops (supermarkets, newsagents, post offices etc.), people were 1-2m apart, but due to the narrow pavements, other pedestrians were passing much closer to those queuing. It was also obvious that some shops or even estate agents had staff working inside and people were just knocking on the door and were allowed in.

This is not a proper lockdown and many of these people risk causing more premature deaths a few weeks later. The longer this continues, the longer it will take for the peak to occur and the longer the 'lockdown' will last.

Originally Posted by: xioni2 

Sometimes I find these daily briefings come across as a pat on the back and celebration of what the government have done.

- PPE still in short supply
- Testing below 10k

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

I'm afraid I disagree. Daily briefings in the UK have been an innovative way in giving updates. Journalists are paid to maintain their respective media outlets the upper hand against their competitors. In doing so they often ask questions designed to entrap the daily "briefers". You need look no further for examples of press intervention than the panic buying fueled entirely by them.

I haven't witnessed much in the way of "patting on the back"  

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

The death rate will be higher in these countries for reasons we have discussed - they live on top of each other and many have smoked all their lives etc

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Did you see the post I made yesterday - Danish laboratory technicians have remembered the old way of isolating RNA in samples by boiling at 98 degrees for 5 minutes. Quicker and cheaper than the modern method using machines and chemicals. Sometimes low tech. is better.

 P.S. I mostly agree with Beast above.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Hardly innovative. It’s the right thing to do. But a press conference isn’t a new idea. You would expect this type of briefing to happen in any crisis.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Dorking is in Surrey and, while Surrey is a large county, Surrey has been rising rapidly up the league table in recent days, now up to sixth. No room for complacency there I would have thought.

Latest number of official cases by area, the leading three are now all outside London (yes, not all NHS areas are the same size and the number of official cases is not the same as total number of cases but I think it gives a fair idea of where has the most badly infected people)

Birmingham: 428

Hampshire: 384

Sheffield: 361

Southwark: 319

Lambeth: 318

Surrey: 314

Brent: 295

Wandsworth: 265

Hertfordshire: 262

Croydon: 261

Originally Posted by: JHutch 

Brian, a question -

You keep posting these interesting figures, with minimal comment.  Are you able to take things to the next stage and cast your opinion of the competence of our  government in relation to its strategy and preparedness for COVID-19? 

News of the Coronavirus featured in daily news bulletins from mid January in relation to what was happening in Wuhan, so it was obvious that it was on its way from then.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Mini-report from Canada:

Daily run yesterday. More traffic than I would have expected if it's only people on essential trips. People observing good social distancing though. My perception is that there are a greater proportion of elderly people out and about, which isn't great.

This lock down will get increasingly difficult as we move into spring. it's cold and wet today but the weather here can change very quickly from winter to glorious summer. Many people have been in a sort of annual lock down due to the cold over the last few months anyway. Soon people will want to start lazing in the park, opening pools, going to summer cottages, going for drives and so on. An Ontario summer is almost a race to get as much time in the sun before it snows again! I think compliance here is pretty good now but it could get messy.

JT is out of isolation which will be a relief to him as he can get his beard groomed again

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-addresses-canadians-saturday-1.5513608

Possible slight flattening of the curve here but too early to really say. I have a hope that we may have implemented lockdown a little earlier in the cycle than the UK, but only time will tell.

Originally Posted by: pfw 

As someone who lives on their own, it's the freedoms I'm missing. The freedom to go to the wolf centre, for example, which is off-limits now for the foreseeable future (the owner is feeding the wolves, all walks have stopped).

The freedom to get a haircut (I may have to buy clippers in the coming weeks and hack at it myself).

The freedom to pop into Tesco at 5 in the morning to stock up. (Tesco is closed until 6 now and there are queues galore, plus rationing - no more buying 4 small bottles of various flavours of Pepsi/Coke).

The freedom to invite friends round for a games morning, or to take their dogs down to the coastal park.

The freedom to get a Tesco home delivery as a treat to myself (No slots for love nor money, plus they - rightly - should go to the elderly / vulnerable people)

The biggest change is working from home. I could, in theory, drive into work - but it's against all common sense and I won't do it unless I have to (e.g. the school's "edge" server crashes). There are positives - no commute, no being barged out of the way on that roundabout on the way back, no need to arrive 2 hours early to beat the traffic - but it does feel pretty weird.

On the plus side, I'm saving a small fortune: not going to the wolf centre, nor commuting to work, means I'll be driving several hundred miles less a month. No hotel stays at the wolf centre means I'm saving another couple of hundred a month, but at the expense of fewer points (and qualifying for "status" next year).

Food wise, my bills are relatively unchanged, as I don't eat out and don't have takeaways (except on polling days, where I'll get some chips).

I'm also lucky in that I have 300 square metres of gardens to enjoy, plus a "man cave" with a large screen and a projector, which gives me a change of scenery... if nothing else, I'm catching up on various blu-rays I've yet to see! If I was crammed into a flat or an urban terrace with next to no garden things would be much worse.

I do wonder how those who are extroverts, or used to going out all the time will handle this, especially as the weeks turn into months!

Originally Posted by: Retron