JFF model did okay today.

3009 new cases compared to the 3077 predicted.

I'm hoping that there is a bit of a convergence in the predictions which don't seem to be varying quite as wildly as they were earlier. Keeping the parameters the same for now. Will adjust as necessary.

Tommorow it is predicting 3257 new cases.

Latest model results in full.

The Govt is lying about everything now. See the fiasco over the food parcels sent out to the most at risk - containing one apple, some angel delight and a bottle of squash.

They lie. It is what they are good at.

I read something about that while trying to draw geographical patterns in the spread; the low RH has been suggested to aggravate symptoms, by limiting early mucus production, and enhancing spread that way rather than helping the virus itself. The odd thing is that the Lombardy plain is notorious for fogs.

122 out of the 367 deaths in England were in London

• London North West University Healthcare NHS trust: 38


• St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust: 14


• Croydon University Hospital: 13


• Royal Free: 11


• Barts Health NHS Trust: 10


• King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust: 7


• North Middlesex University Hospital NHS Trust: 6


• Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust: 5


• Chelsea and Westminster Hospital: 5


• Kingston Hospital NHS Foundation Trust: 4 


• Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust: 3


• Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust: 3


• Homerton University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust: 2


• Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust: 1

Time to accept lockdown is pointless when you have different generations of families living together in cramped conditions. 

I suppose eventually, everyone who can die will do so, and the numbers will fall by default

Canadian report: grey skies and cold here which makes the lock down seem worse somehow. Looking forward we finally have consistent double digit highs and some sun

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-coronavirus-ontario-lecce-schools-1.5515855

Ontario at 2,000 cases and 33 deaths. Schools closed until May - I don't think they'll re-open this school year.

My better half did some supermarket shopping yesterday. No issues with supplies although she had to wait around 15 mins to get in to the store. Apparently some of the cashiers are getting exasperated with elderly customers who still come in several times a day as during normal times. Old folk are stubborn and set in their ways, who'd have thought it?

As far as I can tell, social distancing is still being kept to outside and the lock down is being pretty well observed. It's just not as crowded here as in some areas of the UK so it's possible to do a quiet walk or run so without too much difficulty, which helps with cabin fever. Whether this will still be the case in a month's time is anyone's guess.

I suspect there are quite a few non-essential car journeys going on and there were definitely a few motorbikes out enjoying the sun this weekend, I'm sure they were just searching for bog roll! I suppose if you don't stop or travel in a group the risk is pretty low, so personally I'm pretty relaxed about this.

Let them eat cake

But this is also the most popular Govt in recorded history and King Boris has higher approval ratings than Jesus, so clearly the plebs love getting rogered from behind, without lube

IMO, HMG should have gone more public about COVID-19 and the threat that it posed to the UK as soon as the first case in England was confirmed back in late January. It may have been that some people in the UK actually had the virus some time before this; there again it may not have been. We will never know that for sure now one way or the other.

That said, the government could only act on what was known for a fact and once the first case in England was confirmed, that was the time when the government should have raised the alert. Had they done so, then the whole task of trying to contain the spread of the disease within the UK might, just might have been a bit easier to do.

What you call "lying" could be simply plain old fashioned incompetence, making it up on the spot and not knowing.

There is a difference between an outright lie and being wrong or stupid.

This briefings have improved markedly. However, I would have avoided the word green shoots at this stage.

Those sorts of words stick in people’s minds.

Today, my good friend Nick R reminded of this WhatsApp message I sent him on Jan 25:

"I think this has the potential to be a big one. I’m planning to sit it out at home
and not go anywhere crowded. News from China is grim today"

If people like us could worry about it back then, why not HMG?

Idiotic to be talking like this imo at this stage.

Medical officer apologises for past optimism on PPE

Responding to Robert Peston, Dr Harries apologises for being too optimistic about the provision of personal protective equipment (PPE) for medics at previous press conferences.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615

One can see that the govt doesn't always have up to date facts/figures/data and that is a failing, but it's not a deception, and they seem prepared to accept that the information they've previously given may not have been correct.

Yep, then Peston picked that up. A scrap thrown to the vultures. The guy was just trying to show a bit of positivity, but too early for that as they continue to educate the country.

What was good however how later comments emphasised this is still early days, not to take foot off pedal etc. Even Ben Brown back in the studio summarised that.

I'll be surprised if the saying green shoots is said for a while now. Bet he is kicking himself for saying that, or others behind the scenes are.

Yes you got a sense he realised his mistake and tried to go in harder with key messaging.

It was completely the wrong phrase to use as could mean people get complacent.

It will be interesting to see if the papers use that in tomorrow’s headlines.

Edit. Yup, this phrase is all over Twitter already.

We will have to disagree. The evidence that HMG has lied over testing is overwhelming. As is the evidence that it has consistently lied about the contents of food parcels.

Norman Lamont was rightly slaughtered for talking about the "green shoots of recovery" in the early 90s when people were still being thrown on the dole and having their houses repossessed.  This NHS guy has tonight made a complete ass out of himself IMO. To say that when deaths are apparently still rising shows an appalling lack of judgement even if technically he is correct.

It's quite a feeling, I can tell you.

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I'll get me coat

The figures from Italy are showing the opposite of what you say. Lockdown is working because the percentage rise of new cases is falling daily. At the start of lockdown it was 25%. It's fluctuated a bit but has steadily fallen and is now down to the lowest figure it has been - 3.9%