Teenage victim Luca Di Nicola was 'very healthy' – family says

Quote

The family of Luca Di Nicola, who died after testing positive for coronavirus, have paid tribute to the "very healthy" teenager. The NHS has said the 19-year-old did not have underlying health conditions.

Luca, an assistant chef from Italy, died in London after testing positive for COVID-19. It is understood he was "very healthy", and was from Nereto in central Italy.

He was taken by ambulance to the North Middlesex Hospital in Enfield, north London, last Tuesday - but died 30 minutes later, from apparent fulminant pneumonia. His father, Mirko, has told La Repubblica that his son had contracted the virus, and that the family received an email from British medical authorities saying a post-mortem swab had confirmed that.

It is believed the coroner has not officially confirmed it.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-teenage-victim-luca-di-nicola-was-very-healthy-8211-family-says-11966443?fbclid=IwAR0bUiPAlJNMJjAJU38khA6JHmbGFxjXl3Uk5Hq_D0fII5fPIyTTIuInI90

​

Very tragic. Here is some medical data on fulminant pneumonia:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5965415/

"Severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a frequent cause of sepsis and the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).1 However, a fulminant presentation of these syndromes in an otherwise healthy patient in the emergency department (ED) is uncommon

..."

perhaps he caught the stronger strain in Italy?

I was wondering that.

These 2 articles are very good and they explain why it was wrong to act in stages/gradually and the huge cost of herd immunity policies. They demonstrate how the countries that act very quickly have the best results. The first one was published on the 10th of March and it was calling for an immediate lockdown.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

There are no stronger and weaker strains.

There are 8 strains they have detected so far, but the epidemiological effects of different strains appear to be almost identical:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/scientists-track-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/

It isn't conclusive; he could just be poorly informed. But I'd agree that he shouldn't come to an important press briefing without the facts.

I'm afraid that I can't provide a link at the moment. However, the Irish Times reported our HSE(our NHS) saying that they had a difficulty securing reagent stocks and they went on to say that this was a global problem. So either Gove was telling the truth or our HSE is lying too.

Wait until the NHS app gets up and running. 

Reading Italian sources, it seems like they are gradually becoming more confident that the lockdown is working, but that it a painfully slow process. Also reading again what happened in Wuhan in greater detail, I think our lockdown will last longer than 2 months, we'll probably have a flatter peak at quite high levels and we are going to pay dearly for our inaction during the first 20 days of March.

The mortality rate in the UK is currently just over 7%. It's not that much lower than in Italy. 

Dates and number of deaths announced today for each NHS trust in England:

• LONDON NORTH WEST UNIVERSITY HEALTHCARE NHS TRUST: 38 (18.03, 25.03 x 2, 26.03, 27.03 x 7, 28.03 x 15, 29.03 x 11, 30.03)


• UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS OF DERBY & BURTON NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 21 (22/3 to 28/3)


• ST GEORGE'S UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 14 (26.03, 27.03 x 7, 28.03 x 5, 29.03)


• CROYDON HEALTH SERVICES NHS TRUST: 13 (21.03, 26.03, 27.03, 29.03 x 8, 30.03 x 2)


• ROYAL FREE LONDON NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 11 (25.03, 28.03 x 4, 29.03 x 6)


• BASILDON AND THURROCK UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 10 (27.03 x 3; 28.03: 29.03 x 6)


• BARTS HEALTH NHS TRUST: 10 (28.03 x 4, 29.03 x 6)


• NOTTINGHAMSHIRE UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 8 (5 X 27/3, 2 X 28/3, 1 X 29/3)


• MANCHESTER UNIVERSITY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 7 (26.03 x 2; 28.03 x 2; 29.03 x 3)


• OXFORD UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 7 (27.03 x 2; 28.03; 29.03 x 4)


• UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL BIRMINGHAM NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 7 (5 X 27/3, 1 X 30/3, 1 X 28/3)


• UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS OF LEICESTER NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 7 (24/3 to 30/3)


• LEEDS TEACHING HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 7 (29/3 TO 30/3)


• KING'S COLLEGE HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 7 (25.03, 26.03, 27.03, 29.03, 30.03 x 3)


• WIRRAL UNIVERSITY TEACHING HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 6 (26.03 x 2; 27.03; 29.03; 30.03 x 2)


• WORCESTER ACUTE HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 6 (20/3 to 29/3)


• NORTH CUMBRIA INTEGRATED CARE NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 6 (28/3)


• SHEFFIELD TEACHING HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 6 (4 X 29/3, 2 X 30/3)


• NORTH MIDDLESEX UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL NHS TRUST: 6 (24.03, 27.03 x 4, 28.03)


• PENNINE ACUTE HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 5 (26.03; 27.03 x 2; 28.03; 29.03)


• SALFORD ROYAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 5 (All 29.03)


• EAST AND NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE NHS TRUST: 5 (27.03; 28.03; 29.03 x 3)


• MAIDSTONE AND TUNBRIDGE WELLS NHS TRUST: 5 (27.03; 29.03 x 3; 30.03)


• UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS OF NORTH MIDLANDS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 5 (4 X 29/3, 1 X 27/3)


• CHELSEA AND WESTMINSTER HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 5 (29.03 x 5)


• LEWISHAM AND GREENWICH NHS TRUST: 5 (27.03, 28.03, 29.03 x 3)


• PORTSMOUTH HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 4 (26.03; 27.03; 29.03 x 2)


• WEST HERTFORDSHIRE HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 4 (27.03; 28.03 x 2; 29.03)


• BRIGHTON AND SUSSEX UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 4 (27.03; 28.03 x 3)


• ROYAL UNITED HOSPITALS BATH NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 4 (27.03 x 2; 28.03; 30.03)


• THE ROYAL BOURNEMOUTH AND CHRISTCHURCH HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 4 (27.03 x 2; 28.03; 30.03)


• MID YORKSHIRE HOSPITAL NHS TRUST: 4 (3 X 29/3, 1 X 30/3)


• SHERWOOD FOREST HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 4 (3 X 29/3, 1 X 28/3)


• THE DUDLEY GROUP NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 4 (26/3, 27/3, 28/3, 29/3)


• ROYAL WOLVERHAMPTON NHS TRUST: 4 (2 X 29/3, 2 X 30/3)


• NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 4 (1 X 29/3, 3 X 30/3)


• KINGSTON HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 4 (28.03, 30.03 x 3)


• MID CHESHIRE HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (29.03 x 2: 30.03)


• UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL SOUTHAMPTON NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (25.03; 27.03 x 2)


• GLOUCESTERSHIRE HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (29.03 x 2; 30.03)


• ROYAL CORNWALL HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 3 (24.03; 29.03 x 2)


• FRIMLEY HEALTH NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (28.03; 29.03 x 2)


• ST HELENS AND KNOWSLEY TEACHING HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 3 (22.03; 27.03; 28.03)


• UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS OF MORECAMBE BAY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (27.03; 29.03; 30.03)


• UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS BRISTOL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (27.03; 28.03 x 2)


• SOUTH TEES HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (1 X 29/3, 2 X 30/3)


• YORK TEACHING HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (2 X 29/3, 1 X 30/3)


• EPSOM AND ST HELIER UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS TRUST: 3 (28.03 x 2, 29.03)


• GUY'S AND ST THOMAS' NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (20.03, 24.03, 29.03)


• WRIGHTINGTON, WIGAN AND LEIGH NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (All 29.03)


• ASHFORD AND ST PETER'S HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 3 (26.03; 27.03; 29.03)


• CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (All 28.03)


• TORBAY AND SOUTH DEVON NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (29.03; 30.03)


• HOMERTON UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (27.03, 29.03)


• NORTHAMPTON GENERAL HOSPITAL NHS TRUST: 2 (27/3, 29/3)


• JAMES PAGET UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (29.03; 30.03)


• NORFOLK AND NORWICH UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (28.03; 29.03)


• NORTHERN LINCOLNSHIRE AND GOOLE NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (25/3, 30/3)


• BLACKPOOL TEACHING HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (29.03; 30.03)


• BOLTON NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (28.03; 29.03)


• LANCASHIRE TEACHING HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (All 29.03)


• SOUTH WARWICKSHIRE NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 2 (26/3, 29/3)


• NORTHUMBRIA HEALTHCARE NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (30/3)


• DORSET COUNTY HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (24.03)


• DORSET HEALTHCARE UNIVERSITY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (25.03)


• HAMPSHIRE HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29.03)


• POOLE HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (27.03)


• UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS PLYMOUTH NHS TRUST: 1 (29.03)


• WESTON AREA HEALTH NHS TRUST: 1 (23.03)


• BIRMINGHAM COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (30/3)


• CHESTERFIELD ROYAL HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29/3)


• AIRDALE NHS FOUNDTION TRUST: 1 (29/3)


• BARNSLEY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29/3)


• HARROGATE AND DISTRICT NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29/3)


• SOUTH TYNESIDE AND SUNDERLAND NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29/3)


• IMPERIAL COLLEGE HEALTHCARE NHS TRUST: 1 (27.03)


• LUTON AND DUNSTABLE UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29.03)


• MEDWAY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29.03)


• TAMESIDE AND GLOSSOP INTEGRATED CARE NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29.03)


• ESSEX PARTNERSHIP UNIVERSITY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (27.03)


• SALISBURY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29.03)


• SUSSEX COMMUNITY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (29.03)


• EAST KENT HOSPITALS UNIVERSITY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST: 1 (30.03)

But surely that just reflects the lack of testing and therefore the absence of all the cases with mild symptoms from the data?

Possibly a factor of low rates of testing as opposed to a genuinely high death rate. 

Yes I think that is right. The Lancet article I linked to this morning suggests that is very likely. 

Edit:and that is just in Iceland.  So globally likely to be very many more

It is, after all, a coronaviruse, which are well known for producing endless mutations.

Yes - no idea why the UK government is so bad at tech.

Take South Korea - they got on top of the virus by use of technology, mass testing, contact tracing and confinement. They have not had to close down their entire economy to achieve it, although they do have very strict border controls - everybody arriving in SK is made to load a specific App on their Smartphone (don't go if you don't have one) and their 14 day quarantine is monitored, with severe penalities if not adhered to:

https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/03/30/south-korea-keeps-covid-19-at-bay-without-a-total-lockdown

But unlike the UK, SK is very good at high tech solutions.

A 13-year-old boy has cornfirmed to have died in London after testing positive for COVID-19. It's not been confirmed whether or not he had any underlying heath issues at this time.

King's College Hospital in London has confirmed a 13-year-old boy has died after testing positive for covid-19

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) March 31, 2020

There is no evidence of stronger and weaker strains in terms of impact on humans. And even in terms of 'mutations', this is what the article you linked says:

"However, as per a researcher who talked to the Washington Post that there are only around four to 10 genetic differences between the coronavirus strains that have infected Americans and those of the original virus in Wuhan. Peter Thielen, a Johns Hopkins molecular geneticist said, "That's a relatively small number of mutations for having passed through a large number of people. At this point, the mutation rate of the virus would suggest that the vaccine developed for SARS-CoV-2 would be a single vaccine, rather than a new vaccine every year like the flu vaccine.""

Cripes!

The US Navy is to remove the vast majority of an aircraft carrier’s crew so the giant warship can be disinfected, one day after its commanding officer sent an urgent message asking for help controlling a coronavirus outbreak, Harriet Alexander reports.

A week after an initial three sailors were identified as being infected with the virus, a US official told ABC News that the number of infected sailors has risen to at least 70. The captain of the 1,100-ft USS Theodore Roosevelt, Brett Crozier, sent an extraordinary four-page letter asking for Navy help on Monday.

He wrote that the warship had no more space to safely quarantine infected crew.

“The spread of the disease is ongoing and accelerating,” he wrote in the March 30 letter, which was obtained by the San Francisco Chronicle. “Decisive action is required.

“Keeping over 4,000 young men and women on board the TR is an unnecessary risk and breaks faith with those Sailors entrusted to our care."

Now Thomas Modly, the acting Navy secretary, says that the ship will be evacuated and disinfected in Guam, where it's currently anchored.

The Navy is looking at using hotels or pitching tents.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

All I can say is

Not just cruise ships then, Richard, eh?

I can't understand why anyone would go off on a ship in the current circumstances......

Boats and Corona virus don't mix well !"