The British Horse racing Authority have suspended racing for a further 12 weeks

181 to 260 is +79 not +71 and 180 to 381 is + 201 not 181.

Not number semantics, but important in mapping trends and relative trend. So the +201 is the biggest acceleration so far.

---

Thanks for correcting. 

---

They partly agree with this for England and Wales (has now been updated):

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

However the report you have quoted has 50 too many for Scotland and 6 too many for NI; coincidentally, the numbers they quote as increases.

According to the dashboard above and what it said yesterday, it should be

Scotland 76 (+16)
NI 30 (+2)

The figures for Wales and England agree.

---

Remember what you were cautioned for before? No excuse for flippancy is there ?

---

From the interview I have seen with Dr Peter Hotez, he believes the virus is impacting younger people in Western countries than it did in Asia. It's not a case of a mutation of the virus it's just that our genetics are causing a greater impact at a younger age for some reason. The virus is having a big impact on the lungs and causing scarring, though over time nearly all people will recover if they survive the initial pneumonia. We have to hope a vaccination is found as soon as possible. Realistically that's 12-18 months away.

But the 13 year old who died was African origin, not Caucasian and many of the deaths in London and Birmingham are also from immigrant origin community

 

 

---

Partly for cultural reasons - talking to my son-in-law the GP, he says social distancing is not something that some communities find easy or tolerable.

 

 

---

Good post, Brian, agree 100%.

As I have said before, in my view the government should have started tacking action on the threat posed to this country by COVID-19 two months ago, by which time it was know for a fact that it had reached England. If they had taken the steps during Febuary that MM, myself and others have spoken about in previous threads, the government may well have found that the task of trying to contain the spread of the virus through the UK a bit easier to do.

Even when they finally did go more public about the virus in early March, they still acted too slow. My own view is that the restriction wrt what can and cannot be done in public should have come in at the start of March and not a fortnight later. Yes, the virus would still have spread and people would very likely have still died very sadly, but earlier action may well have saved some people from getting the virus and have saved some lives.

---

Plus there isn't exactly much evidence from Spain and Italy that it 19C is going to really bother it!

---

The worst thing about C19 is the uncertainty. If I catch a cold or flu I have a good idea what to expect and can be very confident I will recover fully within a couple of weeks or so. With C19 it feels as though you are playing Russian Roulette. I say that from the point of view of someone who has just turned 50 and has no diagnosed underlying medical conditions. I'm not particularly susceptible to infections or illnesses and my parents both had good innings. But still... 

---

I'm afraid there is little correlation between what Hancock says and what actually happens down the line. Always just an optimistic promise that isn't delivered.

---

I'm 57 with no underlying conditions but I don't have any worries about the virus affect on me if I catch it.

---

Daily breakdown of the data from PHE

UK data 

• Daily confirmed Cases - 4,244 (-80)


• Patients Recovered - 135 (no change) - Current daily high for recovered patients 42 (22/03) - Data will be updated in due course a new system is in development.


• Total UK deaths - 2,921 (+569)

English data

Top 10 Local Authorities with the highest confirmed cases

1. Birmingham: 852


2. Hampshire: 699


3. Surrey: 618


4. Sheffield: 602


5. Hertfordshire: 582


6. Brent: 559


7. Kent: 531


8. Essex: 517


9. Southwark: 516


10. Cumbria: 512

Local Authorities with the fewest confirmed cases

• Rutland: 5


• Isle of Wight: 17


• Hartlepool: 17


• Kingston upon Hull, City of: 18


• North Lincolnshire: 23


• North East Lincolnshire: 24


• Blackpool: 28


• Darlington: 30


• Bracknell Forest: 36


• York: 36

Regional data

• London - 9,291 (+950) 


• Midlands - 4,694 (+555) 


• South East - 3,392 (+284) 


• North East and Yorkshire - 3,269 (+440) 


• North West - 3,066 (+653) 


• East of England - 2,233 (+392) 


• South West - 1,254 (+169) 

All changes with yesterday. Data based up to 9am today for new cases and up to 5pm yesterday for new confirmed coronavirus deaths. Not all deaths occurred in the 24hr period.

 

I saw a discussion on the fact that obesity would be an issue for the younger population of the US - not something witnessed much in China.

I don't know if anybody read the study link I posted yesterday: it posits that BCG vaccination regimes in different cultures seems to have a correlation with CFR. We'll find out how the trials of vaccination go in the European countries mentioned in this article.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/can-century-old-tb-vaccine-steel-immune-system-against-new-coronavirus

What makes you so certain?

---

A glass half full attitude.

---

The correlation with obesity is apparently weak according to experts who have looked at the UK data. (I'm not obese in case you think I'm trying to dismiss it to feel better!!!)

---

Thanks for the updates Gavin. Still have no idea where in Hants most cases are.

---

For the last few days, I've been encouraged by a local populus respecting the situation. The roads have been almost as quiet as on snow days and I've barely seen anybody outside. Today, this seems to be changing and I can actually hear the traffic on the M3 sounding as if all were normal. Trucks and cars seem to be passing by more frequently, almost as if the lockdown is coming to an end and I am really concerned. BJ's team did warn of people wearing out their ability to maintain for long enough. 

---

With almost everybody who is being interviewed on the news doing it from home I've never seen so many views up noses!

---

I feel exactly the same about this as you Brian. I'm in the same position - 50yrs old, no underlying health conditions (that I know of) reasonably fit and not overweight - but it still feels like a lottery. As numbers have increased so have the number of people dying with no health issues. Some of the recovery stories are pretty horrific too. 

I'd rather just not get the damn thing and I will do my best to avoid it, something that will become increasingly difficult when the lockdown eases and in particular when I return fully back to school. 

Hampshire is only the 55th most affected local authority in England (out of 149) when adjusted for population.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-tracker-how-many-cases-are-in-your-area-updated-daily-11956258

---

I was referring to an American study but just did a quick google for UK data. 

Data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) showed that of 165 patients treated in critical care in England, Wales and Northern Ireland since the end of February, 79 died, while 86 survived and were discharged. The figures were taken from an audit of 775 people who have been or are in critical care with the disease, across 285 intensive care units. The remaining 610 patients continue to receive intensive care.

(...)

The audit suggested that men are at much higher risk from the virus – seven in ten of all ICU patients were male, while 30% of men in critical care were under 60, compared to just 15% of women. Excess weight also appears to be a significant risk factor; over 70% of patients were overweight, obese or clinically obese on the body mass index scale.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate

Matt Hancock 23 Jan: "the CMO has revised the risk to the UK population from 'very low' to 'low'.. while there's an increased likelihood that #coronavirus cases may arise in this country, WE ARE WELL PREPARED & WELL EQUIPPED to deal with them"@lbc #C4Newspic.twitter.com/X5aqvnkyVR

— I Am Incorrigible FCA (@ImIncorrigible) April 2, 2020

---