It does and without it, it seems a difficult job even starting to get back to normality.

There have either been 4344 or 9740 tests conducted today.

Today's daily increase of 3634 is put in a rather dramatically different context depending which one it is.

If contagion is much more limited than we think (say 100-500k people have it now or had it in the past), I think that'd be both good news and bad news:-

• good, because a test, trace and isolate strategy would be easier and more effective


• bad, because if the above doesn't happen there is still a huge reservoir of hosts available to the virus

Q, you made quite a downbeat post yesterday saying things looked grim. I meant to ask you at the time why you thought that but didn't get round to it. Was there a particular reason you thought/think that?

No JFF model update today until this is straightened out.

At least one figure coming out today is wrong, the numbers make absolutely no sense.

Only 4344 people being tested conducted today sounds like the dodgy figure, in which case it seems like someone has added up the cumulative figure incorrectly.

I was referring to Boris's condition. It does look more optimistic today though given he is still not on invasive ventilation. The problem is once you get into ICU your odds are around 50:50. I was particularly worried since Boris seemed to be deterorating rapidly. Since then it seems to have become apparant he was moved to ICU more as a prophalatic measure rather than him actually needing to be there. That's definitely a good thing.

My suspicion is the 213181 figure is garbage and someone added them up wrong.

9740 sounds more realistic than 4344.

The first report that Trump got on CV19 was on 29 January 2020 and it mentioned up to half a million deaths in the US.

Deaths also do not make sense. Unless I am confused.

Apparently there were +74 deaths announced in Scotland and +758 in England so am confused why the UK figure is 786. There was also +3 in NI and +19 in Wales.

Would this not make the UK total: 854

There is often a discrepancy between the 2 totals.

Hear a lot of traffic on the main road out behind my property today & yesterday.

PS: Hope Boris recovers from this virus. 

Sounds to me that Lockdown will continue well into April

Interesting how certain movie characters are forever etched in your memory, even though you couldn't name them

I remember exactly what she looked like and I haven't seen a repeat of Jaws perhaps for 20 years

The Lawyer in Jurassic Park who got eaten whilst sitting on the toilet is another one!

That's to be expected, but we must end it by the end of the month. 

The economic and mental damage to the nation will by this time start outstripping the effects of the virus itself

What about normal health conditions that are being ignored? Cancers going undiagnosed? Rotting teeth because dentists are closed?

We cant carry on like this for much longer

We must get Britain moving again!

Excellent news. 

Italy have reported 3,039 new cases and 604 new deaths

• New cases down 560


• New deaths down 32

Good, I was concerned he would bottle it.  This is good news.

Brilliant news. They can end the lockdown. We are only a few weeks behind!

If ever there was a country that needs a break it’s Italy 🇮🇹 🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹🇮🇹👍👍👍

How many deaths will result from this? The cure must never be worse than the disease

UK set to endure worst postwar recession with GDP falling 5.3% this year - new data analysis by @davidottewell. https://t.co/GR1ZnGGXEI pic.twitter.com/QZHaCTBREK

— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) April 7, 2020

Ending the lockdown there now would effectively be culling thousands more lives!