That says 9740 people were tested making a cumulative total of 213,181. Are you saying that yesterday’s  cumulative total wasn’t 203,441?

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I do wish people would stop with this 'he's a fighter' thing when someone is ill. I know it's meant to be encouraging, but it does sort of lay the blame for those who die on their lack of commitment.

— Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) April 7, 2020

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Yes I think Beast's love for the economy (ie, his local watering hole) is clouding his judgement somewhat 🙄

👍👍👍

 

I have been saying for at least a decade that helping to make China's economy one of the strongest in the world would make them a leading global power. The US has dominated for decades off the back of having the world's most powerful economy and it was inevitable that China would gain the same capabilities. The additional problem is that China is an authoritarian one-party state with an all-powerful leader.

If you look at what China has been doing strategically around the world these past two decades you can see a country with a clear strategy where its long-term interests dictate its actions. Quite a few countries are discovering that Chinese financial and economic aid comes with some nasty strings attached.

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As Xion says, nothing is going to change. We will be arguing about Brexit again by the end of the year

 

“The #Coronavirus Pandemic Will Accelerate History Rather Than Reshape It”. Gloomy but hugely thought-provoking read⁩ predicting the world will be no more focussed on the big picture: global medical research/saving environment after than before Covid-19 https://t.co/68A0lxteFQ

— katya adler (@BBCkatyaadler) April 7, 2020

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Beast needs to download Zoom and crack open beers and commune with his mates and stop posting drivel.

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If you suddenly develop a toothache or get an ingrowing toenail, and realise that you cant get it treated, you will change your tune as well

 

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OK Here is the latest JFF model.

Updates: I've gone with the 9740 figure, I've also removed the linear increase in tests up to the end of the month. Its clear this is not ramping up anywhere near this fast. For now I have assumed a roughly constant number of tests in the future of about 11k. When there is more data I will use moving averages to extrapolate future number of tests.

 

With that in mind. Today's daily increase of 3634 is slightly more consistent with the model forecast than yesterday's however remains on the low side. Again this indicates, to me, that the basic parameters may need changing slightly as the model is overestimating the number of confirmed cases slightly. Nevertheless I will wait a bit longer before doing that to see if things get back on track.

A few predictions (again this has not changed in the last few weeks as the same basic parameters are being used).

Total number of cases (constant testing at 11k ish): 99306 (again this has not changed, any variation is only due to the number of tests)

100 confirmed cases crossover point (when we have 'control'): 28th April

Peak in number of confirmed cases (again testing caveat): 5th April (2 days ago)

 

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Have we got the hospital admission slide today? 

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Still adding new cases at a rate of one every 30 seconds. Somehow I don't think that's grounds for ending the lockdown.

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Won't happen, I'm f***ing invincible 😎

Was there no room left in your shopping trolley after you'd loaded it with beer for a pack or two of paracetamol?

😉

 

Reminds me of this old advert https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z023prwCkgs

🤣

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There is no way they can even think about ending the lockdown or even lifting some of the restrictions until there is a clear and continuing decline in both the number of new cases of COVID-19 and the number of people dying from it.

I don't think we are anywhere close to that stage yet at this moment in time.

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Regional breakdown for deaths in England

• London - 1,706 +224


• Midlands - 1,196 +142


• North East & Yorkshire - 700 +88


• North West - 642 +90


• East of England - 563 +101


• South East - 562 +77


• South West - 286 +36

 

You might be, but if something goes wrong in the house, like the boiler goes or a pipe bursts, you will be on a long waiting list

We cant simply press pause on life for too long

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There never seems to be any paracetamol, nor hand gel. 

Plenty of beer though. Grateful for that at least

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Actually, I  HAVE broken a tooth and it's very "niggley".   I'm putting it into perspective though.  Niggley tooth being fixed or consigning a load of people to death

...... um let me think

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You are not symptomatic though? Why would you think you are a danger? Its been weeks since the lockdown

 

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I’ve been astounded by how far China has extended its hold and I don’t think it’s gone down well with the people of those countries. Last year on a tour in Jamaica, our guide pointed out the Mandela highway and wasn’t too impressed that it was being built by the Chinese.  

We had the same in Cambodia when touring Sihanoukville.  Everywhere was being developed by the Chinese and the guide said the Chinese were taking over. 

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I don't understand that graph. Is it showing the total number of people in UK hospitals who have tested positive for corona virus?

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Same in parts of South Asia. A lot of Chinese investment in Pakistan and Sri Lanka including a naval base

They are  now a global empire without having to fire a shot

They have been buying up shares as well since the recent crash. 

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Yes, I was being a little flippant, and I take your point. My original message was in response to your suggestion that the Italy lockdown be ceased when it's several weeks away from such a decision. No country will end a lockdown when there is still several hundred deaths per day.

 

That's   not what I'm talking about - You said you wanted lock-down ended so that people ,with niggley teeth could go to the dentist.   THAT is what will consign people to death.

Anyway, if it turns septic / I get an abscess  and I'm in a great deal of pain our local lot are  operating an emergency service.  That's probably the case everywhere.  Likewise for your other example. If you want a new kitchen  fitted it's tough shit, but if your house is flooding emergency plumbers are still available

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I am not surprised. I've read similar stories from countries in Africa and one from Pakistan.

Chinese money generally comes with Chinese workers, Chinese-made parts and equipment and a tick in the box that says 'Strategic benefit for China'. There's seldom any philanthropic element, from what I've read.

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