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speckledjim
10 April 2020 18:26:53


 


There could be many reasons. Some which would be good to know and some we have no right to know. Perhaps if they had the choice of dying in a hospital ward or what was their current home they may choose the latter. I don’t doubt the spare capacity based on the situation in the Nightingale hospitals.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Lots of spare capacity in my local hospital. Less than 30 beds taken up on ICU and they have 200 available. 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Ulric
10 April 2020 18:28:42


I read the posts earlier on regarding the number of real cases (not just reported cases) as a percent of population. It really would be nice to know this although I understand how difficult it is to find out, may of minor note that with the number of cases having now gone up c. 5,000 to c. 74,000, and the UK population being 66 million, this means that we have gone just over 0.1% of the population having officially tested positive. We all know that there are more cases than officially reported and that it is generally only the hospitalisations which are getting tested rather than the more minor/asymptomatic cases - if what I have read is true then 1% of the population having tested positive seems believeable. A figure of, say, 10% rather less so unless there are a lot more asymptomatic cases than are currently thought. This is all just me speculating but just thought it may be of some interest.


Regarding people thinking they have it and testing negative. I think that most bugs will cover some of the common covid-19 symptoms and, with the number of deaths being reported, people will likely be worried that they have covid-19 whereas normally they may just carry on with their everyday life and not really think twice about their slight temperature/cough. One of my housemates told us she had mild symptoms of covid-19 but it turned out to be hay fever...


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


I think the death rates are more indicative because they are real numbers, If the fatality rate is 2% or so, which I think looks likely, and we have 8000 deaths, it would follow that about 400,000 people are (or have been ) infected.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
JHutch
10 April 2020 18:34:38


 


I think the death rates are more indicative because they are real numbers, If the fatality rate is 2% or so, which I think looks likely, and we have 8000 deaths, it would follow that about 400,000 people are (or have been ) infected.


Originally Posted by: Ulric 


Maybe, but it depends on what the fatality rate is, have seen quite a range of figures given. I think Whitty or Vallance at one point suggested it was 0.1% although that does seem to have been an extreme.

Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 18:44:32


 


Brian, have you noticed in the government briefing UK appears to be doing better than all other European countries


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Yes I think the graph they used was a little sneaky and doesn't take into account the fact that we further back in the epidemic. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 18:47:11


 


Appologies, could you post the link again?


I started incoperating number of tests a while back after it became clear 100% of testing capacity was being used.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Here's a link to my post which discussed it. Apparently 80% of NHS workers are testing negative. It could be skewing your projections. 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=1203237#post1203237


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ulric
10 April 2020 18:48:47


 


Maybe, but it depends on what the fatality rate is, have seen quite a range of figures given. I think Whitty or Vallance at one point suggested it was 0.1% although that does seem to have been an extreme.


Originally Posted by: JHutch 


It isn't that low, whatever HMG might say.


To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection. - Henri Poincaré
Gavin D
10 April 2020 18:55:29
Former Liverpool player and manager Kenny Dalglish has tested positive for coronavirus. Kenny is hospital but is showing no symptoms at present.
Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 18:59:50

Former Liverpool player and manager Kenny Dalglish has tested positive for coronavirus. Kenny is hospital but is showing no symptoms at present.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Strange? Why is he in hospital then?


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
speckledjim
10 April 2020 18:59:55

Former Liverpool player and manager Kenny Dalglish has tested positive for coronavirus. Kenny is hospital but is showing no symptoms at present.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Why is he in hospital if he’s showing no symptoms? I’m sure you don’t have the answer but that makes no sense


just found the answer, he was already there for another condition 


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 19:00:39

Fail link ahead:


Britain records Europe's highest single-day death toll: Coronavirus deaths jump by 980 to 8,958 - surpassing Italy and Spain's worst days - as 5,706 more patients test positive for the killer illness


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208307/Britains-coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-953-8-931.html


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 19:07:57
The BBC is leading with the governments Herculean effort on PPE.

I am sure the government promised that front line staff would have PPE sometime in March.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 19:08:39


 


Why is he in hospital if he’s showing no symptoms? I’m sure you don’t have the answer but that makes no sense


just found the answer, he was already there for another condition 


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 


Thanks for confirming 👍🏻


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 19:16:42


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 19:17:11

Questions

1. Why don’t the government report on deaths in care homes.

2. If our hospital admissions and critical care are not at capacity, why is our death rate looking like exceeding Italy and other European countries

3. Why does it feel like their is a collective daily whitewash of some of the most critical issues.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gavin D
10 April 2020 19:21:16


 Strange? Why is he in hospital then?


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Admitted to hospital on Wednesday with an infection and was tested straight away as is now standard procedure 

Brian Gaze
10 April 2020 19:27:07


Questions

1. Why don’t the government report on deaths in care homes.

2. If our hospital admissions and critical care are not at capacity, why is our death rate looking like exceeding Italy and other European countries

3. Why does it feel like their is a collective daily whitewash of some of the most critical issues.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Belgium and France are including deaths in care homes.


France has reported 987 more deaths of people who had coronavirus.


Deaths increased by 554 to 8,598 in hospitals and by 433 to 4,599 in homes for the elderly and dependant, he said.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52239925


 


I would like to see data which compares the mortality rate and throughput of patients in ICUs in different countries. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2020 19:32:47


 


Yeh but only 13k tested, some people tested twice I think.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 

  I see!  Although, they’ve only recently been reporting how many people they tested and previously they only reported how many tests were carried out. Could that be skewing your JFF chart?


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
The Beast from the East
10 April 2020 19:38:05


 


I’ve just blown my top, out in the street. Shouted at strangers. 


My partner and I were going for our daily walk, this time to Platt Fields park in south Manchester. Being as careful as we possibly can be, as we are always are. 


We were on a particularly narrow bit of pavement, with railings separating it from the road. Three students approached, three abreast, literally a whisker away from the two of us, who are walking single file. 


In the heat of the moment I think all I said was “move out of the way please”, or “you should be further away”, but they didn’t give a toss. They just laughed. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


I tend not to get involved, not worth it! 


My back facing neighbours had a big BBQ this afternoon with extended family and friends. I don't think that's allowed even though its private property?


But I've had trouble with them before. Their eldest son has an air rifle and sometimes makes holes in my fencing. I complained and got an earful of abuse, though the mother did apologise later


I was tempted to report their gathering, but they would probably know it was me!


 


 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
10 April 2020 19:43:32




Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Don't know if this has already been posted...


Email reveals why Cheltenham Festival continued despite COVID-19 threat


"Organisers of Cheltenham Festival cited Boris Johnson's attendance at the England versus Wales Six Nations rugby match as one of the reasons they would not cancel the race meeting before it took place.


In an email sent to Cheltenham Borough Councillors before the Festival started on March 10, The Jockey Club highlights the Prime Minster attended the international rugby game three days before the event.


The email also quoted medical advice from the chief medicalofficer of Scotland, Catherine Calderwood, who had previously said: "There is actually very little impact on virus spread from mass gatherings, particularly if they are in the open air."


https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/cheltenham-news/cheltenham-festival-directors-cite-boris-4035672


 


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Essan
10 April 2020 19:46:37


Questions

1. Why don’t the government report on deaths in care homes.

2. If our hospital admissions and critical care are not at capacity, why is our death rate looking like exceeding Italy and other European countries

3. Why does it feel like their is a collective daily whitewash of some of the most critical issues.


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 




1. because they don't have that data

2. because we have more capacity?

3. I don't think there is


Andy
Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
Weather & Earth Science News 

Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job - DNA
Justin W
10 April 2020 19:49:44


 


I tend not to get involved, not worth it! 


My back facing neighbours had a big BBQ this afternoon with extended family and friends. I don't think that's allowed even though its private property?


But I've had trouble with them before. Their eldest son has an air rifle and sometimes makes holes in my fencing. I complained and got an earful of abuse, though the mother did apologise later


I was tempted to report their gathering, but they would probably know it was me!


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I will willingly come round and solve this problem for you with hardware.


Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch?
Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 19:51:56





1. because they don't have that data

2. because we have more capacity?

3. I don't think there is


Originally Posted by: Essan 



  1. Why don’t they have the data?

  2. If we have more capacity why is our death rate just as high. You obviously didn’t read the question

  3. Your part of the problem


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Darren S
10 April 2020 20:01:09


 If we have more capacity why is our death rate just as high. You obviously didn’t read the question


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


I mentioned before, Lombardy's infection rate and death rate vastly exceeded the UK's, which is why Lombardy ran out of beds etc. Most of the south of Italy had plenty of spare capacity.


The death rates are unknown. You can't base them on the number of positive tests because so many people haven't been tested. We've done fewer tests than Italy which has the effect of making the death rate look higher.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Gandalf The White
10 April 2020 20:02:24


 



  1. Why don’t they have the data?

  2. If we have more capacity why is our death rate just as high. You obviously didn’t read the question

  3. Your part of the problem


Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


Your third point is completely unnecessary.


I find it hard enough reading your incessant negativity but you're entitled to take whatever line you want. But being unpleasant to a respected poster is a step too far.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
10 April 2020 20:05:03


 


I mentioned before, Lombardy's infection rate and death rate vastly exceeded the UK's, which is why Lombardy ran out of beds etc. Most of the south of Italy had plenty of spare capacity.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


I get that completely. If as you said earlier, deaths were more uniform throughout Italy perhaps their deaths would have been lower. But my point remains - we haven’t yet got close to capacity and yet our deaths are looking like exceeding Italy.


Therefore if we have the capacity and a more informal spread of deaths; why are things looking worse for the UK


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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