There is a really good explanation and discussion of the evidence advising against the general use of face masks based on all scientific, behavioural and medical evidence currently available (from the Chris Smith a consultant virologist at Cambridge). His clear conclusi N was against recommending the general use of face masks.

Based on all current evidence (not modelling etc) I doubt if the government and WHO’s advice is likely to change.

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New York State recorded 671 Covid-19 deaths on Easter Sunday.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has said the state's curve "continues to flatten" "It appears we have reached a plateau."

Yes - if there is an uptick in cases in Denmark caused by re-opening I would expect it to start to show around the time other countries may be thinking about a relaxation. Definitely one to keep an eye on. Similarly with Spain. I'll be keeping an eye on graphs like this one which Ulric pointed us at:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=ITA+ESP+USA+GBR+KOR+CAN+DNK+SWE

(Sweden appears to have a dip in cases rather similar to Italy and Spain, despite no real lockdown. Interesting but too soon to draw conclusions).

Governments are going to have to make unpleasant decisions weighing up "acceptable" virus death rates against possible economic damage and consequent future deaths, along with trying to decide how far it's acceptable to curtail civil liberties to control the disease. Horrible situation - my main hope is that they keep the populace informed on the information they using to make these calls.

Canadian report - it's raining! Very quiet out there as a result.

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Daily breakdown of the data from PHE

UK data 

• Daily confirmed Cases -  4,342 (-946)


• Total UK deaths - 11,329

English data

Top 10 Local Authorities with the highest confirmed cases

1. Birmingham: 1,853


2. Hampshire: 1,600


3. Kent: 1,552


4. Lancashire: 1,532


5. Essex: 1,484


6. Hertfordshire: 1,441


7. Surrey: 1,344


8. Sheffield: 1,237


9. Cumbria: 1,218


10. Brent: 1,018

Local Authorities with the fewest confirmed cases

• Rutland: 9 - No change


• Isle of Wight: 56


• Hartlepool: 69 - No change


• North East Lincolnshire: 75 - No change


• Torbay: 98


• Peterborough: 102


• Bracknell Forest: 104


• Herefordshire, County of: 104


• North Somerset: 115


• North Lincolnshire: 125

Regional data

• London - 18,000 (+521)    


• Midlands - 11,368 (+549) 


• North West - 10,027 (+575) 


• North East and Yorkshire - 9,059 (+368) 


• South East - 8,517 (+95) 


• East of England - 6,002 (+351) 


• South West - 3,392 (+199) 

All changes with yesterday. Data based up to 9am today for new cases and up to 5pm yesterday for new confirmed coronavirus deaths. Not all deaths occurred in the 24hr period

Economic forecasts for Q2. Like with brexit I don't have much faith in these numbers. The skill for this kind of thing is just so low. The one on the right in particular, I wouldn't be suprised if its a big underestimate or a big overestimate how how bad its going to be.

 

What is certain though is a big drop followed by a rebound. How big will either be? No idea.

 

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A big drop is already apparent in the data. I think a rebound will be muted if only because of the likelihood of ongoing restrictions on activities.  

There's also, IMO, a very real possibility that this period of inactivity will make some re-evaluate what they need and what really matters.

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I WILL NOT be impressed , I have 3 children at 2 different schools, a high chance they will bring it back home 

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Dominic Raab: Overwhelming majority of people stayed home this weekend.

Valance says he expects a rise in the number of deaths this week , then a plateau which could last for a while before we see a slow decline

Tells me its 3 to 4 weeks of the current set up 

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Journalists are absolutely DESPERATE to get some info about the easing of the lockdown aren’t they. 

It’s infuriating just how how pointless some of these questions are. 

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Agree Joe

Are they morons 

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Daily slides

A new one today - UK mobility change

Cases. Down by 907 for non-key workers to 3,543 and down by 39 to 799 for key workers

Patients in hospital with Covid-19 is starting to level off with some local variations

Deaths in hospital which is internation standard. Tracking behind Italy with the same path. CSA further increase expected this week then plateau may last a while before dropping

No they want a story or a headline. “We need to look at all the evidence and will give you as much information as we can do with any reliability and accuracy” is not a catchy (nor succinct!) headline. 

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They may as well gauge the mood and ask a question that at least has a hope in hell of being answered.

As if anyone is going to give details about how a lockdown will end yet. 

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I think opening schools is also the same as allowing all young adults out. Might cause complications for older parents and so on. When it comes i suspect it will be everybody except over 70's and existing conditions but maintain social distancing. Back to our previous first stage.

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They cant stop themselves can they. They have to try and seem like the big journo asking the cutting questions. Whereas in fact they are just asking the same pointless questions as each other. And I wish these journos could use technology.

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Well they are Doc 

If I can understand why they wont give an answer why cant they ?, its crazy that the same question gets repeated 

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Sir Patrick Vallance: "We're now at a stage where you can begin to see the flattening"

Sir Patrick Vallance has predicted the UK death toll will plateau for about two to three weeks after the peak then it will begin to fall.

 

We should all start sending the stats of lockdown on our bodies through where we can actually see the fattening.

They have a job to do so want a decent soundbite. I’m not saying it is right or wrong, it just is. It is not how I would do it but I am not a journalist with viewers or readers to attract.

I would much prefer an educational and informative approach all round. Explain the science behind the virus, therapies, drugs, pathology etc. but then again I would say that. It wouldn’t be as glitzy but it would be more informative, however I doubt if everyone would share that view.

Certain things sell papers and that is shock and awe not science.

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I don't watch these briefings any more (UK or Canada). They are bad for my blood pressure and the TV as I usually end up swearing and hurling objects at the screen!

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I think the last question was good (from Business Insider). 

They couldn’t really answer it.

I think they now know, deep down, that the UK Government acted too slowly to implement  the lockdown measures (use Ireland as a comparison). 

We are now paying the price, but hindsight is of course a wonderful thing. 

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Have you thought of anger management classes?!

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BFOD (BTW leave it until after work to google that one if required!)

As someone with a background in software development, I'd ask them to open source all the code for the models they are currently using to predict the spread of the outbreak. It could be argued this is the most safety critical software of all time and should be publicly available and subject to review and verification. if it's already available, I'd like to know where!

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