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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 April 2020 17:39:31


 


The 3 strains thing has been debunked by epidemiologists. It was poor reporting here. The strains are not meaningfully different at all. This type of virus mutates very slowly, and nothing is out there currently to counter that. What we're seeing with regard to 'strains' is entirely expected.


From what I've seen, most epidemiologists are sceptical of the reinfection stories, with reactivation or faulty testing (either first or second time round) the most likely reasons - of course, not just faulty testing, but the margin of error in even very good testing.


I'm not saying your worries are without foundation - I share many of them, as you know. But if I focus purely on reading expert opinions right now, they are not at all downbeat on the chances of finding a working vaccine, and one which, given the nature of RNA viruses, will work even as the virus (slowly) mutates. I could worry (I usually do) about a vaccine not working or being as effective as we need, but I see no basis at the moment for thinking that is in any way likely.


I absolutely do think that varying levels of restriction are now here for the long term, and the shift in how we are as a social species will be changed by this for a very long time indeed.


Originally Posted by: NickR 

A thoughtful and sensible post Nick!  It’s good to see you posting like this!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
The Beast from the East
13 April 2020 17:41:03


 


 


But perhaps some hope for Beast, if limited reopening of licenced premises for food service was permitted, wetherspoons should be fairly well placed to do it. With their App, entry could be limited to people who've reserved a table on the app and all ordering could be done on the app, on certain days and periods might have to restrict length of stay?  


Originally Posted by: haggishunter 


I dont use it and I always pay in cash. I hardly ever use my debit card for anything as I dont want to be tracked by anyone


Most of the punters in my pub dont use the app and the older ones dont have a smartphone anyway. It might work in a different part of London, but not here


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
13 April 2020 17:42:09


717 new deaths in the UK down slightly from the 737 announced yesterday. Our peak remains at 980.



Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


There are three distinct shoulders on that graph, all of which I believe are due to post weekend reporting. I fully expect to see a slight increase tomorrow followed by a steady but continuous fall as we get over the peak which should be around now, I think.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
westv
13 April 2020 17:43:12


 


I dont use it and I always pay in cash. I hardly ever use my debit card for anything as I dont want to be tracked by anyone


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


But what about the brain wave scanners? How do you prevent the lizard people tracking you that way.



At least it will be mild!
doctormog
13 April 2020 17:45:49
I’m not entirely sure of why vaccine acquired immunity would be more effective than natural immunity for this virus when it is not usually.

There is so much we do not yet understand about this virus and the journey will be a long one with a lot to learn. Even the world’s leading experts don’t have the answers at the moment, so there’s not much chance for us.
Quantum
13 April 2020 17:46:37

I think we need a new model for post COVID travel. Have a list of 'approved' countries that have got COVID under control (ofc this assumes we also get it under control) and shut the borders to any country outside of that. Perhaps you could have three catogaries.


Catogary A: Whitelisted. General travel approved


Catogary B: Greylisted. General travel denied. Exceptional limited travel approved.


Catogary C: Blacklisted. All travel denied.


 


Catogary B countries would also require enhanced screening and isolation for anyone that has arrived from them.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
13 April 2020 17:47:10


 


I dont use it and I always pay in cash. I hardly ever use my debit card for anything as I dont want to be tracked by anyone


Most of the punters in my pub dont use the app and the older ones dont have a smartphone anyway. It might work in a different part of London, but not here


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Going back to pubs for a moment another serious problem would be the loos. How on earth would access to them be controlled? In most of the pubs here you would only be able to have one person going into the gents (or ladies from what I am told ) at a time if social distancing was to be enforced. Therein lies another problem. Getting to the loos would mean breaking social distancing rules too because in most cases you have to walk past people to get to them. We'd also have long queues forming with the one person at a time rule. The more I think about pubs the more issues I can see. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
13 April 2020 17:52:05

You could call it the COVID control union. Would have this structure.


Founding members: Catogary A, can only be kicked out by a supermajority of other founders.


Members: Must all be Catogary A to join. Can vote in new asociate members and full members (which needs founder approval)


Asociate Members: Prospective members who are currently Catogary B.


 


The CCU members are represented by the head of government of each country.



The constitution of the CCU would be simple and limited. Every member, though, would be expected to strictly enforce border controls according to the constitution or risk expulsion.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
13 April 2020 17:53:09


I think we need a new model for post COVID travel. Have a list of 'approved' countries that have got COVID under control (ofc this assumes we also get it under control) and shut the borders to any country outside of that. Perhaps you could have three catogaries.


Catogary A: Whitelisted. General travel approved


Catogary B: Greylisted. General travel denied. Exceptional limited travel approved.


Catogary C: Blacklisted. All travel denied.


 


Catogary B countries would also require enhanced screening and isolation for anyone that has arrived from them.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


It would need to be monitored constantly as the situation in countries would be changing. However, due to the incubation period and the apparent large (I'm somewhat sceptical about this actually) number of asymptomatic cases even that may not be enough to prevent an outbreak being imported.


Also, what is to stop people flying from the UK (or another country) to a Cat A and then travelling on to a Cat B (or even C), returning to a Cat A and then back to the UK. Unless your system is fully implemented by all countries I don't see how it could possibly work.  


Edit: Aren't you basically suggesting a global government? Soros has nothing on you! 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
fairweather
13 April 2020 17:53:44


 


This is terrifying as it implies 1000+ per day for the next month (coming down from the peak won’t be instant).  We could be looking at over 50,000 deaths by June quite easily 😟


Originally Posted by: John p 


Seems very unlikely - difficult to see how transmissions rates can be maintained within a month of lockdown to a month before which is what the current deaths now relate to, approximately. If he were right then surely it proves a lockdown makes no difference?


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
13 April 2020 17:57:17


 


Especially if there’s any mileage in this research


 




Originally Posted by: John p 


Presume it's the same source as what I'm posting here. No idea whether there is any truth in what is being reported. Any views Doc?


HONG KONG — The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 could kill the powerful immune cells that are supposed to kill the virus instead, scientists have warned.


The surprise discovery, made by a team of researchers from Shanghai and New York, coincided with frontline doctors' observation that Covid-19 could attack the human immune system and cause damages similar to that found in HIV patients.


https://www.todayonline.com/world/coronavirus-could-attack-immune-system-hiv-targeting-protective-cells-warn-scientists


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Quantum
13 April 2020 17:58:59


 


It would need to be monitored constantly as the situation in countries would be changing. However, due to the incubation period and the apparent large (I'm somewhat sceptical about this actually) number of asymptomatic cases even that may not be enough to prevent an outbreak being imported.


Also, what is to stop people flying from the UK (or another country) to a Cat A and then travelling on to a Cat B (or even C), returning to a Cat A and then back to the UK. Unless your system is fully implemented by all countries I don't see how it could possibly work.  


Edit: Aren't you basically suggesting a global government? Soros has nothing on you! 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 




Because a Cat A country is not allowed to be a member unless it enforces border control which means general travel is not allowed with non Catogary A countries. In other words the CCU would be designed such that this possibility cannot happen.


And yes it is a form of global government, but that's hardly new. WHO, WTO, UN, e.c.t. are all forms of global govt. The CCU is no different. To prevent it becoming overpowered or lasting too long the main thing would be to ensure that is function is singular and limited. So the CCU would have absolutely no say on anything other than border controls and travel. That way it remains relatively toothless like the other global organisations. The CCU would, notably, have no say on trade although it may ofc affect trade indirectly through its purpose of controlling movement.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 April 2020 17:59:45


Seems very unlikely - difficult to see how transmissions rates can be maintained within a month of lockdown to a month before which is what the current deaths now relate to, approximately. If he were right then surely it proves a lockdown makes no difference?


Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Yes, that’s a good point!  It certainly looks like hospital admissions are continuing to fall as a result of lockdown, so you’d expect death rates to follow. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Brian Gaze
13 April 2020 18:02:08

This about tests is interesting too. I've got no specialist knowledge in this field at all (obviously) but I've had a bad feel about the corona virus test for a while.  


 


Are coronavirus tests flawed?


There are deep concerns laboratory tests are incorrectly telling people they are free of the coronavirus.


Stories in several countries suggest people are having up to six negative results before finally being diagnosed.


Meanwhile, officials in the epicentre of the epidemic, Hubei province, China, have started counting people with symptoms rather than using the tests for final confirmation.


As a result, nearly 15,000 new cases were reported on a single day - a quarter of all cases in this epidemic.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51491763


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
13 April 2020 18:03:13


Yes, that’s a good point!  It certainly looks like hospital admissions are continuing to fall as a result of lockdown, so you’d expect death rates to follow. 


Originally Posted by: Caz 


I thought they were up by a small amount today? (1%?). Yesterday was the first day when a genuine fall (0.5%?) was recorded I think.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
fairweather
13 April 2020 18:05:33


I’m no scientist. Nor am I a doctor. Nor do I have any qualifications remotely useful at this terrible time.


All I have is my hunch. And that tells me that, yes, we are in this for the long haul. That restrictions will be part of our lives from now on. That a vaccine, when it comes, may not be the panacea we all hope for.


I worry about the inconclusive data on reinfections in Asia. I worry about the three distinct strains of CV19. I worry that it is going to keep coming back, sweeping through different groups and generations over time.


In short, I worry that this is the ‘big one’ but that it is coming at us more slowly and more subtly than we could have imagined.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


Well I'm not a doctor either. I share your worries but I think there is an optimistic hunch that may be as valid as your pessimistic one. A vaccine has been mooted as early as September. Historically we have overcome pandemics and although there are more challenges in modern society there there have also been massive developments in drug and vaccine development. It is believed this virus doesn't mutate much or for the worse. There is a much better than average chance this isn't "the big one". I believe there will be stricter worldwide controls on dubious practices and whilst there will likely be other viruses there could be another long gap and we will be more prepared I am sure.


I'm not saying my prediction is any more certain than yours but it is an alternative that probably has equal value. 


Edit - and what Nick R said above, just read, nice post.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
John p
13 April 2020 18:07:19


I know the meaning of the word John, but I think that the time frame he was suggesting is much shorter than you're interpreting


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


Not sure why this is so contentious, however Vallance said earlier it would be approx a week to reach peak, then 2-3 weeks on the  plateau. The only bit I added my own view on was that the numbers wouldn’t suddenly just drop off a cliff, but would drop slowly. 


Camberley, Surrey
Gooner
13 April 2020 18:13:10


I know the meaning of the word John, but I think that the time frame he was suggesting is much shorter than you're interpreting


Originally Posted by: llamedos 


As I said early Valance said he expects a rise in deaths in the next week , then a Plateau for some period of time before a slow decline - I take that as maybe 3 to 4 weeks , then I think some sort of VERY slow release


I think that's how you see it ?


 


France continue another Month of Lockdown - running to May 11th 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Joe Bloggs
13 April 2020 18:16:38


I think we need a new model for post COVID travel. Have a list of 'approved' countries that have got COVID under control (ofc this assumes we also get it under control) and shut the borders to any country outside of that. Perhaps you could have three catogaries.


Catogary A: Whitelisted. General travel approved


Catogary B: Greylisted. General travel denied. Exceptional limited travel approved.


Catogary C: Blacklisted. All travel denied.


 


Catogary B countries would also require enhanced screening and isolation for anyone that has arrived from them.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


If other countries implement this policy, based on what we’ve seen so far, I think the UK would sit within Category C as far as many nations are concerned. 


Obviously things can change. 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gavin D
13 April 2020 18:17:18
Breaking: French lockdown extended by 4-weeks until Monday 11th May.
Heavy Weather 2013
13 April 2020 18:18:16
France clearly faking no chances and has extended their lockdown until the 11 May
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Gooner
13 April 2020 18:19:14

Breaking: French lockdown extended by 4-weeks until Monday 11th May.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Expect us to follow 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gandalf The White
13 April 2020 18:25:19


 


This is terrifying as it implies 1000+ per day for the next month (coming down from the peak won’t be instant).  We could be looking at over 50,000 deaths by June quite easily 😟


Originally Posted by: John p 


Where do you get 1,000+ per day? 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gavin D
13 April 2020 18:26:44
France have announced a phased re-opening of schools from May 11th

Restaurants and bars won't reopen to start with

Mass-gathering events won't resume until at least mid-July
Gandalf The White
13 April 2020 18:26:45


 


Expect us to follow 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


We're running behind France so I'd expect the date we go into the next phase to be later.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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