Yep fair point 

BUT surely its a waste of time on air - start asking something with more substance 

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Lol - I'm pretty relaxed really - it's just therapeutic!

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This is terrifying as it implies 1000+ per day for the next month (coming down from the peak won’t be instant).  We could be looking at over 50,000 deaths by June quite easily 😟

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You would think so wouldn’t you. We can always hope Marcus and I sort of tune out at the questions too for the reasons you mention.

For some reason I have this image of Paul going through my head now  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aMFxWdoSGhA 

(On a seriously note open source software for their modelling would be good).

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I couldn't agree more Joe - I referenced the very same point a couple of days ago.

I've watched the briefing again today and I think what we've done in terms of these updates is so much more than other countries have achieved.

The problem we have is inviting questions from what is becoming an increasingly large number of journalists who are more concerned about getting a scoop to enhance their journalist value, than asking a relevant question. 

It's infuriating and devalues the purpose of the briefings. 

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These updates seem to be becoming part of this new life. A massive amount of TV time spent on them, but I think a number welcome kept being informed even if its the same message or questions being asked. I got more angry where the BBC left these for the news summary while the Q&A was still going on, after all the build update and special programme on it.

It would be good if they showed some different graphs. I am sure there is a lot more they could do on presentation, rather than something you could knock up easily in excel 20 years ago.

It seems with most things nowadays you get to know what people are going to say beforehand, so when the day actually comes when a relaxation strategy is announced, it'll be old news.

I genuinely feel today that we are in this for the long haul now.

I think that some European country’s will quickly regrets easing lockdowns so soon.

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I have a nasty feeling you are right.  We have  the advantage that we are behind Spain and Italy - we didn't take advantage of that fact  with the timing of our lock-down, but  their experiences with easing back should be useful - I trust we will learn this time from their example

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I agree with the second bit. It has to be brought down to manageable levels, a level where outbreaks can be tackled.

I think or rather hope if we can get those levels right down, we have a chance to relax most restrictions. It does need pain before the gain so the more we concentrate on getting those levels down, the sooner the better.

As regards to international travel however, whoever would trust people coming from and to countries. I would not be surprised to see international restrictions going on well into next year. 

I’m no scientist. Nor am I a doctor. Nor do I have any qualifications remotely useful at this terrible time.

All I have is my hunch. And that tells me that, yes, we are in this for the long haul. That restrictions will be part of our lives from now on. That a vaccine, when it comes, may not be the panacea we all hope for.

I worry about the inconclusive data on reinfections in Asia. I worry about the three distinct strains of CV19. I worry that it is going to keep coming back, sweeping through different groups and generations over time.

In short, I worry that this is the ‘big one’ but that it is coming at us more slowly and more subtly than we could have imagined.

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To be honest I would think Double-dip - if the easing of lockdown restrictions initially boosts activity but the effects of unemployment and corporate bankruptcies then start to filter through.

id put my Money on the W shape rather than V Or U recovery situations certainly not L, but emerging markets at at risk of the former as less able to engage big stimulus and often rely on commodity exports.

 

Especially if there’s any mileage in this research

 

🦠KILLING T CELLS: this could be extremely bad. Researchers in China and the US find that #SARSCoV2 virus that causes #Covid19 can destroy the T cells that are supposed to protect the body from harmful invaders. This was not true for SARS-1 or MERS. 🧵 https://t.co/Uld8u9BpDF

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) April 13, 2020

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I think so too but I hope we’re both wrong!

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I may be wrong, but I don't think that was what he was implying at all. 

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I think you’re right - we are in it for the long haul. On this basis HMG will do absolutely all they can to prepare the NHS, far more than has already been achieved. 

There will then, at some point, be an acceptance that we have to return to something resembling normal life. An acceptance also that many more people will become ill, and many will die.

I don’t think we are in it for the long haul in terms of a lockdown. 

Just my hunch also. 

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What does plateau mean to you?

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We need to "flatten the peak" which does seem to be happening. I get the impression that, over the long term, a large number of infections and deaths is accepted as being inevitable.

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As we all know, herd immunity is the only answer to this in the long term. We were following this path until the spread became to fast and HMG backed off.But in the long term covid19 is here to stay and natural immunity will be the only answer. So yes many more people are going to die unfortunately. And i also believe that there is an unwritten policy of letting the care homes go. BBC interviewed a care home owner who said out of the 9 that have already died and 14 that have symptoms only one has been admitted to hospital.

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Don’t despair Justin!  I don’t think the long haul will be that long, maybe another month.  Then possibly back to restrictions again at some point, to steady the number of cases in hospitals.  I don’t think whatever measures they take will stop this, or ever would have because, as you say, it’s more subtle than we ever imagined.

However, I do think life will return to normal and this virus will settle, either by immunity, or vaccine.  We really don’t know enough about it yet but we do know that most who get it, survive it.  We will adapt to whatever is thrown at us!  Take heart!  

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A further 158 patients have died in London. The deaths were between March 26th and April 12th they were all announced today.

• Royal Free London NHS Trust - 18 deaths (between April 1 and April 12)


• University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 18 deaths (between March 26 and April 11)


• King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust - 17 deaths (between April 10 and April 12)


• Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust - 15 deaths (between March 28 and April 11)


• Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust - 12 deaths (between April 8 and April 12)


• North Middlesex University Hospital NHS Trust - 12 deaths (between April 10 and April 11)


• London North West University Healthcare Trust - 8 deaths (between April 11 and April 12)


• Imperial College Healthcare Trust - 7 deaths (between April 9 and April 12)


• Croydon Health Services NHS Trust - 7 deaths (between April 11 and April 12)


• The Hillingdon Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 7 deaths between April 11 and April 12)


• Barts Health NHS Trust - 6 deaths (between April 9 and April 12)


• Kingston Hospital NHS Foundation Hospital - 5 deaths (between April 11 and April 12)


• Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust - 5 deaths (between April 7 and April 12)


• Homerton University Hospital Foundation Trust - 5 deaths (between April 8 and April 12)


• St George's University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust - 4 deaths (between April 10 and April 11)


• Royal Brompton and Harefield NHS Foundation Trust - 3 deaths (between April 9 and April 11)


• Whittington Health NHS Trust - 3 deaths (between April 11 and April 12)


• Central and North West London Foundation Trust - 2 deaths (between April 10 and 12)


• Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust - 2 deaths (April 9)


• East London NHS Foundation Trust - 1 death (April 5)


• Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust - 1 death (April 11)

The 3 strains thing has been debunked by epidemiologists. It was poor reporting here. The strains are not meaningfully different at all. This type of virus mutates very slowly, and nothing is out there currently to counter that. What we're seeing with regard to 'strains' is entirely expected.

From what I've seen, most epidemiologists are sceptical of the reinfection stories, with reactivation or faulty testing (either first or second time round) the most likely reasons - of course, not just faulty testing, but the margin of error in even very good testing.

I'm not saying your worries are without foundation - I share many of them, as you know. But if I focus purely on reading expert opinions right now, they are not at all downbeat on the chances of finding a working vaccine, and one which, given the nature of RNA viruses, will work even as the virus (slowly) mutates. I could worry (I usually do) about a vaccine not working or being as effective as we need, but I see no basis at the moment for thinking that is in any way likely.

I absolutely do think that varying levels of restriction are now here for the long term, and the shift in how we are as a social species will be changed by this for a very long time indeed.

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Yes.  That’s how I understand it! 

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I know the meaning of the word John, but I think that the time frame he was suggesting is much shorter than you're interpreting

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A vaccine, not natural immunity, will be the probable answer.

In any case, there are examples that prove herd immunity - however it is achieved - is not the only answer: SK and NZ. To put all your eggs in the herd immunity basket when we don't even know if having it gives you immunity or for how long is - and always has been - stupidly reckless.

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Short term we will have to get our house in order and infections down. As we learn to live with this disease however we will find better ways of managing it.

Further afield though, I do fear for international travel for quite some time. How on earth do you start to open borders up. Will there be testing there and then when you depart or arrive in countries. It takes just one person to have this on a plane to infect many. Cruises? I am sure a lot of confidence has been lost in these. I expect there will be less sailings as supply will outstrip demand.
Those countries that rely on overseas tourism will be very hard hit.
In this country, it could be our holiday destinations will receive a boost as people holiday at home, as they will have no choice!