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Quantum
13 April 2020 18:29:52


 


If other countries implement this policy, based on what we’ve seen so far, I think the UK would sit within Category C as far as many nations are concerned. 


Obviously things can change. 


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


To be honest I'm not sure any country would be in Catogary A right now and definitely not the UK (which as you say is in C).


Its a hypothetical that in a few months lets say there are no locally obtained cases. I think something like this CCU would be necessary if we wanted to return to normal life.


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
13 April 2020 18:30:48


 


The 3 strains thing has been debunked by epidemiologists. It was poor reporting here. The strains are not meaningfully different at all. This type of virus mutates very slowly, and nothing is out there currently to counter that. What we're seeing with regard to 'strains' is entirely expected.


 


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Is there any explanation as to why New York and Lombardy were so disproportionately affected compared with the rest of their respective countries? I thought there might be a stronger strain here?


 


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
13 April 2020 18:35:14


 


In short, I worry that this is the ‘big one’ but that it is coming at us more slowly and more subtly than we could have imagined.


Originally Posted by: Justin W 


No, this is good preparation for a no deal Brexit on Dec 31. Its written into law that we cannot extend transition, just as Maunder and Q wanted


We will be back to fighting in supermarkets over loo roll again, but this time the foreign nurses will be blamed and Priti will kick them out


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
13 April 2020 18:39:51


 


We're running behind France so I'd expect the date we go into the next phase to be later.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Sorry - I meant expect us to carry on for a month 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Bugglesgate
13 April 2020 18:40:43


Is there any explanation as to why New York and Lombardy were so disproportionately affected compared with the rest of their respective countries? I thought there might be a stronger strain here?


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


I have heard no one with any scientific credence suggest  there are virulent and non virulent strains. The variations in strains appear to  be fairly trivial.  So far this thing seems to be remarkable  stable, which is damned good news for a vaccine.Long may this continue


I would hazard a guess that the badly hit areas are merely areas where the virus was allowed to run rampant before  lock-down was attempted.  Demographics also play a part in Italy for sure.


Chris (It,its)
Between Newbury and Basingstoke
"When they are giving you their all, some stagger and fall, after all it's not easy banging your heart against some mad buggers wall"
NickR
13 April 2020 18:40:45


 


Is there any explanation as to why New York and Lombardy were so disproportionately affected compared with the rest of their respective countries? I thought there might be a stronger strain here?


 


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I think you need to look to testing policies,demographics, and small area concentration. The problem here is that the "well it MUST be because it's a worse strain", down the pub, "commonsenseinit" logic is, as usual, based on no actual expertise or research. And is usually wrong.


As to those who are bleating that it's the economy vs lives, and that the best thing for the economy is to loosen up lockdown, no surprises for guessing it's not that simple. The economy would be tanked far more from loosening resulting in infection sky rocketing:


https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1249728401574944774?s=19


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gooner
13 April 2020 18:40:52

France have announced a phased re-opening of schools from May 11th

Restaurants and bars won't reopen to start with

Mass-gathering events won't resume until at least mid-July

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


British journalist in France was surprised about giving specifics post lockdown 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


NickR
13 April 2020 18:41:41


 


 


I have heard no one with any scientific credence sugegst there were virulent and non virulent strains.  I would hazard a guess that the badly hit areas are merely areas where the virus was allowed to run rampant before  lock-down was attempted.


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


๐Ÿ‘


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Northern Sky
13 April 2020 18:48:54


 


I think you need to look to testing policies,demographics, and small area concentration. The problem here is that the "well it MUST be because it's a worse strain", down the pub, "commonsenseinit" logic is, as usual, based on no actual expertise or research. And is usually wrong.


As to those who are bleating that it's the economy vs lives, and that the best thing for the economy is to loosen up lockdown, no surprises for guessing it's not that simple. The economy would be tanked far more from loosening resulting in infection sky rocketing:


https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1249728401574944774?s=19


Originally Posted by: NickR 


Spot on that Nick ๐Ÿ‘

Quantum
13 April 2020 18:49:12


 


No, this is good preparation for a no deal Brexit on Dec 31. Its written into law that we cannot extend transition, just as Maunder and Q wanted


We will be back to fighting in supermarkets over loo roll again, but this time the foreign nurses will be blamed and Priti will kick them out


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


You should be glad about brexit


We would actually be in a worse situation if we hadn't stockpilled in preparation for no deal. Some of the PPE is actually coming directly from no deal stockpiles.


Everyone laughed at my millenium bug analogies but it turned out to be extra preciant. In the same way Y2K lessened the impact of 9/11 so does brexit lessen the impact (albeit in a small way) of COVID.


 


And before you ask, no I don't expect the transition period to end this year. It will get extended at the last minute in june.


 


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
The Beast from the East
13 April 2020 18:50:47


 


This is terrifying as it implies 1000+ per day for the next month (coming down from the peak won’t be instant).  We could be looking at over 50,000 deaths by June quite easily ๐Ÿ˜Ÿ


Originally Posted by: John p 


Funny how 700 deaths a day is considered "good" when a month ago some media commentators and journalists were pointing and finger wagging at Italy about how badly they had handled it


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
13 April 2020 18:55:28


 


 


I have heard no one with any scientific credence suggest  there are virulent and non virulent strains. The variations in strains appear to  be fairly trivial.  So far this thing seems to be remarkable  stable, which is damned good news for a vaccine.Long may this continue


I would hazard a guess that the badly hit areas are merely areas where the virus was allowed to run rampant before  lock-down was attempted.  Demographics also play a part in Italy for sure.


Originally Posted by: Bugglesgate 


And Birmingham and London with a high number of BAME deaths


Interesting how Handjob only got a sore throat but Boris got it bad. I assume some people are better at making antibodies? 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
13 April 2020 18:56:36

I thought Fauci's comments reported earlier were a suicide note.


Coronavirus: Trump retweets call to fire gov't expert Fauci


The apparent condemnation comes after Dr Fauci said more lives could have been saved with a stronger initial response.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-trump-retweets-call-fire-gov-expert-fauci-200413071754443.html


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Gandalf The White
13 April 2020 19:03:53


 


Funny how 700 deaths a day is considered "good" when a month ago some media commentators and journalists were pointing and finger wagging at Italy about how badly they had handled it


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


You'll have to post a link to where anyone has said that 700 deaths a day is considered 'good'.


Assuming you're just making it up again then this is in very poor taste.


๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
13 April 2020 19:05:19


I thought Fauci's comments reported earlier were a suicide note.


Coronavirus: Trump retweets call to fire gov't expert Fauci


The apparent condemnation comes after Dr Fauci said more lives could have been saved with a stronger initial response.


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/coronavirus-trump-retweets-call-fire-gov-expert-fauci-200413071754443.html


Originally Posted by: RobN 


Yes, Trump doesn't like to be confronted with the truth.


But he'd be even more of an idiot than usual to kick Fauci out in the middle of the crisis.


I posted this in the Social Distancing thread earlier - it seems singularly appropriate



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Heavy Weather 2013
13 April 2020 19:07:37

Macron was very frank with the french people. He admitted there had been issues with PPE and their logistics hadn’t been good.

I have to say reading through some of the quotes he has been very clear.


Other Key Points 


Lockdown extended by 4 weeks to 11 May
Phased Opening of Schools thereafter and only if appropriate
Restaurants, Bars etc, will remain closed even after 11 May
External borders closed until further notice
No gatherings or cultural events until at least mid July


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
13 April 2020 19:18:32


 I thought they were up by a small amount today? (1%?). Yesterday was the first day when a genuine fall (0.5%?) was recorded I think.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I can’t find the info now but you could be right!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
NickR
13 April 2020 19:18:42


 


You should be glad about brexit


We would actually be in a worse situation if we hadn't stockpilled in preparation for no deal. Some of the PPE is actually coming directly from no deal stockpiles.


Everyone laughed at my millenium bug analogies but it turned out to be extra preciant. In the same way Y2K lessened the impact of 9/11 so does brexit lessen the impact (albeit in a small way) of COVID.


 


And before you ask, no I don't expect the transition period to end this year. It will get extended at the last minute in june.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


So, no so much glad about Brexit as glad people could see what a fcking disaster Brexit would be - rather than the sunny uplands that were promised - and stockpiled accordingly. In short, we should be glad so many people understood what a calamity Brexit would be.


Nick
Durham
[email protected]
The Beast from the East
13 April 2020 19:21:54


 


You'll have to post a link to where anyone has said that 700 deaths a day is considered 'good'.


Assuming you're just making it up again then this is in very poor taste.


๐Ÿ‘Ž๐Ÿ‘Ž


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The press conference today for example,  a positive spin put on numbers of dead that were considered shocking when they happened in Italy 


"We are flattening the curve" is now the default setting. 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
13 April 2020 19:25:08


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
13 April 2020 19:35:06

Vallance has just been interviewed by ITV and has said PHE got off to a good start in regards to testing by catching people who had it coming into the country?

Did they? I don’t remember being tested after I go back from Romania end of February.


https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-13/coronavirus-testing-in-uk-not-ramped-up-as-quickly-as-it-should-have-been-government-s-chief-scientific-advisor-admits/


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Quantum
13 April 2020 19:50:48


 


So, no so much glad about Brexit as glad people could see what a fcking disaster Brexit would be - rather than the sunny uplands that were promised - and stockpiled accordingly. In short, we should be glad so many people understood what a calamity Brexit would be.


Originally Posted by: NickR 


People panicked about brexit unnecessarily, people didn't panic enough about COVID.


Those who panicked about at least 1 of them are going to be in a better position now. It turned out there was a disaster, just not the one people thought there would be.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
13 April 2020 19:53:33

The odd thing is though, most of the predictions about Brexit did turn out to be right when it came to COVID. Planes no longer flying, economic devastation, thousands of people dying ect.


And if it wasn't for brexit and some preparations for December then we would be in a worse position now. In an odd sort of way, brexit couldn't have come at a better possible time.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
13 April 2020 20:16:31


The odd thing is though, most of the predictions about Brexit did turn out to be right when it came to COVID. Planes no longer flying, economic devastation, thousands of people dying ect.


And if it wasn't for brexit and some preparations for December then we would be in a worse position now. In an odd sort of way, brexit couldn't have come at a better possible time.


 


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


You are delusional - brexit has left us with a shortage of nurses just when we need them most


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/24/nhs-winter-crisis-thousands-eu-staff-quit


Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Whether Idle
13 April 2020 20:24:15


 


You are delusional - brexit has left us with a shortage of nurses just when we need them most


https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/24/nhs-winter-crisis-thousands-eu-staff-quit


Originally Posted by: RobN 


He is in denial.  Would be laughable if it wasn't so tragic.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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