A thoughtful and sensible post Nick!  It’s good to see you posting like this!  

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I dont use it and I always pay in cash. I hardly ever use my debit card for anything as I dont want to be tracked by anyone

Most of the punters in my pub dont use the app and the older ones dont have a smartphone anyway. It might work in a different part of London, but not here

 

 

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There are three distinct shoulders on that graph, all of which I believe are due to post weekend reporting. I fully expect to see a slight increase tomorrow followed by a steady but continuous fall as we get over the peak which should be around now, I think.

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But what about the brain wave scanners? How do you prevent the lizard people tracking you that way.

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I’m not entirely sure of why vaccine acquired immunity would be more effective than natural immunity for this virus when it is not usually.

There is so much we do not yet understand about this virus and the journey will be a long one with a lot to learn. Even the world’s leading experts don’t have the answers at the moment, so there’s not much chance for us.

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I think we need a new model for post COVID travel. Have a list of 'approved' countries that have got COVID under control (ofc this assumes we also get it under control) and shut the borders to any country outside of that. Perhaps you could have three catogaries.

Catogary A: Whitelisted. General travel approved

Catogary B: Greylisted. General travel denied. Exceptional limited travel approved.

Catogary C: Blacklisted. All travel denied.

 

Catogary B countries would also require enhanced screening and isolation for anyone that has arrived from them.

 

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Going back to pubs for a moment another serious problem would be the loos. How on earth would access to them be controlled? In most of the pubs here you would only be able to have one person going into the gents (or ladies from what I am told ) at a time if social distancing was to be enforced. Therein lies another problem. Getting to the loos would mean breaking social distancing rules too because in most cases you have to walk past people to get to them. We'd also have long queues forming with the one person at a time rule. The more I think about pubs the more issues I can see. 

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You could call it the COVID control union. Would have this structure.

Founding members: Catogary A, can only be kicked out by a supermajority of other founders.

Members: Must all be Catogary A to join. Can vote in new asociate members and full members (which needs founder approval)

Asociate Members: Prospective members who are currently Catogary B.

 

The CCU members are represented by the head of government of each country.

The constitution of the CCU would be simple and limited. Every member, though, would be expected to strictly enforce border controls according to the constitution or risk expulsion.

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It would need to be monitored constantly as the situation in countries would be changing. However, due to the incubation period and the apparent large (I'm somewhat sceptical about this actually) number of asymptomatic cases even that may not be enough to prevent an outbreak being imported.

Also, what is to stop people flying from the UK (or another country) to a Cat A and then travelling on to a Cat B (or even C), returning to a Cat A and then back to the UK. Unless your system is fully implemented by all countries I don't see how it could possibly work.  

Edit: Aren't you basically suggesting a global government? Soros has nothing on you! 

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Seems very unlikely - difficult to see how transmissions rates can be maintained within a month of lockdown to a month before which is what the current deaths now relate to, approximately. If he were right then surely it proves a lockdown makes no difference?

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Presume it's the same source as what I'm posting here. No idea whether there is any truth in what is being reported. Any views Doc?

HONG KONG — The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 could kill the powerful immune cells that are supposed to kill the virus instead, scientists have warned.

The surprise discovery, made by a team of researchers from Shanghai and New York, coincided with frontline doctors' observation that Covid-19 could attack the human immune system and cause damages similar to that found in HIV patients.

https://www.todayonline.com/world/coronavirus-could-attack-immune-system-hiv-targeting-protective-cells-warn-scientists

 

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Because a Cat A country is not allowed to be a member unless it enforces border control which means general travel is not allowed with non Catogary A countries. In other words the CCU would be designed such that this possibility cannot happen.

And yes it is a form of global government, but that's hardly new. WHO, WTO, UN, e.c.t. are all forms of global govt. The CCU is no different. To prevent it becoming overpowered or lasting too long the main thing would be to ensure that is function is singular and limited. So the CCU would have absolutely no say on anything other than border controls and travel. That way it remains relatively toothless like the other global organisations. The CCU would, notably, have no say on trade although it may ofc affect trade indirectly through its purpose of controlling movement.

 

 

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Yes, that’s a good point!  It certainly looks like hospital admissions are continuing to fall as a result of lockdown, so you’d expect death rates to follow. 

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This about tests is interesting too. I've got no specialist knowledge in this field at all (obviously) but I've had a bad feel about the corona virus test for a while.  

 

Are coronavirus tests flawed?

There are deep concerns laboratory tests are incorrectly telling people they are free of the coronavirus.

Stories in several countries suggest people are having up to six negative results before finally being diagnosed.

Meanwhile, officials in the epicentre of the epidemic, Hubei province, China, have started counting people with symptoms rather than using the tests for final confirmation.

As a result, nearly 15,000 new cases were reported on a single day - a quarter of all cases in this epidemic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51491763

 

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I thought they were up by a small amount today? (1%?). Yesterday was the first day when a genuine fall (0.5%?) was recorded I think.

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Well I'm not a doctor either. I share your worries but I think there is an optimistic hunch that may be as valid as your pessimistic one. A vaccine has been mooted as early as September. Historically we have overcome pandemics and although there are more challenges in modern society there there have also been massive developments in drug and vaccine development. It is believed this virus doesn't mutate much or for the worse. There is a much better than average chance this isn't "the big one". I believe there will be stricter worldwide controls on dubious practices and whilst there will likely be other viruses there could be another long gap and we will be more prepared I am sure.

I'm not saying my prediction is any more certain than yours but it is an alternative that probably has equal value. 

Edit - and what Nick R said above, just read, nice post.

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Not sure why this is so contentious, however Vallance said earlier it would be approx a week to reach peak, then 2-3 weeks on the  plateau. The only bit I added my own view on was that the numbers wouldn’t suddenly just drop off a cliff, but would drop slowly. 

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As I said early Valance said he expects a rise in deaths in the next week , then a Plateau for some period of time before a slow decline - I take that as maybe 3 to 4 weeks , then I think some sort of VERY slow release

I think that's how you see it ?

 

France continue another Month of Lockdown - running to May 11th 

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If other countries implement this policy, based on what we’ve seen so far, I think the UK would sit within Category C as far as many nations are concerned. 

Obviously things can change. 

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Breaking: French lockdown extended by 4-weeks until Monday 11th May.

France clearly faking no chances and has extended their lockdown until the 11 May

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Expect us to follow 

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Where do you get 1,000+ per day? 

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France have announced a phased re-opening of schools from May 11th

Restaurants and bars won't reopen to start with

Mass-gathering events won't resume until at least mid-July

We're running behind France so I'd expect the date we go into the next phase to be later.

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