In terms of reopening schools that's the crucial question. If children are immune and can't spread the virus then that would make things a hell of a lot easier.

We don't know enough about the virus yet to know if that's the case. Until we do I think it would be reckless to reopen.

 

Can't argue with that - although a rigorous 'test-trace-isolate' programme will hugely assist it. It's been very effective in certain other countries that have deployed this.

The problem is that this Govt appears to have no inclination to impose such a programme.

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Plus WFH if at all possible.

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  My thoughts too!  See post above. 

Out of interest, does anyone know the reason for flu season being in winter?  Is it because of the weather, or because we tend to have more social gatherings indoors around Christmas?  I’m thinking we’d do better to get this pandemic over before next winter.  That would mean releasing lockdown and exposing more of us to it in the near future. 

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Yes. That’s imperative to prevent overcrowding on public transport. 

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Sounds a stupid question , when is a child at the same level of risk as an adult 

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I'm beginning to wonder whether we have the necessary resources and competencies to do it in the UK. It certainly isn't being pushed up the agenda by the government in the same way that it was a few weeks ago. Hope I'm wrong.

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If you want to get more depressed, watch "The Plague" on History Channel on demand. Fantastic documentary

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A cursory reading of that graph suggests that doing nothing would have been the best option. The second wave looks as bad if not worse than the first wave we would have had when doing nothing.

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If recent reports are correct, testing isn’t yet reliable enough to be rolled out nationally, so I think we’re a while off that yet.  Then there are the logistics, the distribution, recording results etc, as we’re much further down the line than other countries that used this method. 

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Times editorial backing Starmer:

However, other European nations are starting to set out the initial details of their plans to emerge from complete lockdown and it is time, as the leader of the opposition, Sir Keir Starmer, has been arguing, that the British government did the same. President Macron has announced that some restrictions will be lifted in France on May 11. Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Norway have all announced their intention to relax the lockdown laws by the end of this month. Even Spain and Italy, the hardest-hit countries until Britain began to contest that unwanted title, will soon begin to ease restrictions.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-easing-britains-coronavirus-lockdown-exit-plan-jxz9btckc

 

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I believe it is thought to be a combination of factors Caz (including the ones you mention). Essentially people spending more time indoors in close proximity to each other, in some countries at least less humid conditions and possibly even a lack of vitamin D leaving people’s immune systems less effective than at sunnier times of the year. 

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This caller broke down in tears as he told James O'Brien how difficult it is living on his own during the coronavirus lockdown.

Please listen to this and then call a friend to see if they are ok.@mrjamesob | #LockdownLonelinesshttps://t.co/FyFvg2A7a4

— LBC (@LBC) April 15, 2020

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There have been various reports (including a whistleblower on Channel 4 news) that this number is underestimated as some GPs haven't seen the deceased in the previous 28 days and sometimes they are not seeing their bodies either. 

The forms used by care homes also didn't have an entry for CV19 until the end of last week.

 

Yes, from what I've read the main factors are:

• cold and dry conditions


• more time indoors with windows closed (surrounded by others)


• lower levels of sunlight contributing to lower intake of Vit D and melatonin

The government must provide some detail on what restrictions will be lifted and when. Psychologically we need something to look forward to/aim for. Merkel got it spot on yesterday when she said that small shops would open next week and schools will start to reopen from early May.

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This is where Labour needs to step up too, they have been too soft with the govt. Asking difficult questions, making constructive criticism and proposals can help to avoid new mistakes and save lives.

 

Interesting figures from Belgium where care home deaths are included in the figures.

 

For 1st time Belgian figures show more people have died of CV19 in care homes (2,387) than in hospital (2,379)
There will be a reckoning and soul searching has begun - see previous
Otherwise, hospitals discharges are out numbering admissions, bed occupation is falling sharply pic.twitter.com/pZikWhLD5a

— Bruno Waterfield (@BrunoBrussels) April 16, 2020

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I hope I am badly wrong on this, but I expect a very high number of hospital deaths reported today due to the 4-day weekend, my guess is ~1200.

Also looks like it’s going to be a pretty miserable Christmas! 😒

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We had the strategy correct in the first place, but the NHS was not up to speed and capacity so the lockdown had to be imposed. I think a huge second wave is inevitable, but we have brought time to get the NHS up to capacity now. Remember Spanish flu started in March that year, but the real killer wave was during the Autumn. The initial strategy (and HMG can say what they like now but it was obvious what they were trying to do) was to let it rip, but when they realised there were people that could be saved but would be lost because of lack of care beds and equipment they had to act.

I know this sounds horrible, but we never seem to learn from history.

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Yes except the body count would have been horrific. The current lockdown is only buying time while we think of stage 2. Unless our policy is to be driven by dogma rather than rational thinking then we need some much more sophisticated modelling to explore various "what-ifs". At some point we will have to trade lives against economic damage, but without some modelling we have no idea how to balance these. The counties who find the right balance will come out of this better than others.

The only papers I can find suggest that lockdown in some form is going to have to continue for the best part of a year to prevent health care demand at some point vastly exceeding supply as suggested in those graphs.

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/uk-scenario-modelling.html

Findings: We found that mitigation measures aimed at reducing transmission would likely have decreased the reproduction number, but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding NHS availability. To keep ICU bed demand below capacity in the model, more extreme restrictions were necessary. In a scenario where “lockdown”-type interventions were put in place to reduce transmission, these interventions would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year in order to prevent healthcare demand exceeding availability.

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This is an alarming anomaly and we don't know what has caused it, but it's more likely to be a combination of unreported CV19 deaths and other deaths from people who were scared to go the hospital (A&E departments are deserted) or even GP surgeries. Mortality this winter has been running below the 5-yr average due to the very mild winter I guess (or/and a successful flu vaccine).

 

I would have thought that unless someone who had tested positive in hospital had died, the reporting would be the responsibility of the county coroners office, following post mortem examination.  Otherwise they wouldn’t know the deaths were from Covid 19, as we haven’t been testing in care homes. 

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ6kJ7GWtv0

 

 

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