Looking at the overall theme - over several days/models'/runs and ensembles - the bulk of June looks to be less settled than much of the spring but still with some warm/dry interludes - especially towards the south and east. Further north, some occasional Atlantic ingress may bring some cloudier interludes with some rain at times but even here intervening ridges bring some periods of fair weather. In other words what I'm seeing is broadly climatology for the UK in June.

I rather doubt that what you are seeing will be vastly, if indeed much or any different at all, to what both myself and most other members here are seeing Kieren, if we are all looking at the same model output that is.

The regular review this morning a bit delayed due to unforeseen circs but at least ECM 0z has had time to download.

Jetstream currently running from NW all the way down to the Med but then forming broad lop over N Sea by Sat 6th. Then for week beginning Mon 9th it curls around the Azores HP with a N-ly flow over the UK followed by a messy interlude before a reset around Mon 16th sees a W/NW-ly flow across the UK eventually moving to across Shetland at end of that week.

Rainfall charts show showers everywhere except the SW ; Arpege favours the heavisest rain in the SE on Sun but Hirlam concentrates on Scotland on Fri.

GFS has deep LP off NE England Sat 6th with gales to west of it but it moves off fairly quickly and Azores HP moves in reaching max extent on Fri 12th after which it backs off and allows weak LP in from N on Tue 16th. More HP coming up from S on Tue 20th.

ECM starts off similar to GFS but has the Azores HP max a day earlier and likewise its decay earlier with a trailing trough from the N on Sat 13th

GEFS cool to about Thu 11th then a spell slightly above average to Tue 16th before dropping back to average. Bits and pieces of rain throughout but distinctly less than shown yesterday; a few runs with isolated big spikes in Midlands and SE

Yep still waiting for rain here as well and not much forecast either.

I hope that's the case Joe. Good old 'changeable' seems to have gone out of fashion with the UK climate, instead we seem to get stuck in patterns for weeks. 

As you say not much noteworthy in the models after Saturday but I'm pleased we'll be getting some rain in Leeds over the next few days at least.

Imagine being stupid enough to write off an entire month a few days ago. Next week looking better

Latest Arpege has really reduced the rain totals compared to the previous run. Less than 5mm here out to Monday, when the previous run was showing close to 20mm.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=102&mode=25&map=330

Parts of Hampshire and Dorset get barely 1mm on this run.

Yes, so much for the serious rain which has been ramped yet again on TWO. When will we ever learn?

I was out with the hosepipe – again – last night and the garden remains parched. 

This sort of cool-dry weather does little for anyone, except the c-suite of Thames Water, who can expect even bigger bonuses than usual. 

The chase for gardeners' rain in what is still astronomically late Spring has become like the chase for meaningful snow in winter, or unicorns in Epping Forest.

Exciting – but ultimately fruitless. 

As the rain has failed to materialise so the predicted temps have been upgraded. Originally 14c was the predicted maximum for London today - this morning it's shot up to 18c. I expect a similar pattern to occur over the weekend.

He could yet prove to be correct of course, but the time to verify that is July 1st :)

I think this just demonstrates the perils on basing your predictions on run to run output, especially the GFS with 4 runs a day and goes out further than anything else.

Indeed I  think 12c was forecast for Saturday at one stage? 

That looks impossible now. 

Never ever change Matty, I need you to keep challenging me and calling me out. Seriously, I do. Despite everything, I have enormous respect for you....you (and I) go back a long way on here.

Imagine being stupid enough to repeat it year on year and never learn.

My phone app is still saying 14C here for Saturday, which broadly agrees with GFS raw output. GEFS spread for Saturday max is from 13C to 17C.

I've just added in GEFS 2m temperature anomaly charts. These show the anomaly between the GEFS mean (so all 20 runs averaged) vs the 1981 - 2010 climatology average. 

All can be selected from the GEFS chart viewer:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx

Direct links are in the Tweet below.

GEFS mean 1981 - 2010 anomaly charts for 2m temperatures are now available on TWO. (5 day https://t.co/U9pWaI8UuC 10 day https://t.co/9Sofgc6jnk 15 day https://t.co/Qyi1AHR3id) All steps from 6 hrs to 384 hrs https://t.co/UX5R2YE3xt] pic.twitter.com/vOfyw28tCj

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) June 4, 2020

12z GFS op very HP dominated. 

Still a consistent trend for the door to open to very warm air from the east by mid-month. In the interim it looks increasingly settled next week with high pressure ridging in more assertively from the SW 

edit: having done some comparison with the 06z, there are quite a few differences that develop by midweek and therefore a lot to be determined. The 12z will sit more towards the mean in the ensembles later IMO, maybe towards the top end slightly.

Global Icon 12. Sometimes a curtain raiser for the ECM, so not looking great.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/icon-global.aspx

Warmest GEFS of the year. Hopefully it verifies very autumnal today

Looks very dry in reality... sure, the Op is pretty much top of the pack in FI with a few days around 5mm, but the very few P's with high levels of 5mm+ are really elevating the mean to 1 or 2mm. Very warm as you say APS.