Stop over using GFS it's nothing like any other output it's been a shambles the last 2 weeks. Only the 4th best model and going backwards.

I just did call the outlook here great after the next couple of days. Warm and dry is great for my location. I added that caveat, something that is missing in your post,  so yes I can call it great after the next couple of days. there is no torrential rain here, in fact very little rain based on the model to which you refer. The temperatures look like increasing to above average when the easterly influence drops off.

So apart from being drier and warmer than average it may not be good. 

Edit: In the interest of fairness the ECM 00z op run has up to 5mm of rain here in the coming week.

ECM, ECM Para, ECM mean, GEM and UKMO all have a big Azores high pushing in in about 6 days. Until then warm and showery for SE and EA. That's what I'd go with for now.

That’s a bit more accurate than your original post. Although the U.K. consists of more than England and Aberdeen. 

Must admit, I always fancied moving up to Scotland to experience the Aberdeen climate. Richard makes it sound so enticing....and not far from the highlands, so maybe I will start job hunting up there. 😊😊

Definitely more unsettled further south in the coming week but it does look like the op run was one of the wetter options (especially in the coming week) http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1 

Big outlier, almost certainly won't happen. Looks wet in the south for the next week though in what should be a reliable time frame.

At the moment the signal is about as good as you can get for a massive Azores high to build over the UK in about 6 days. All the big 4 showing it at day 6 and the ECM is the best of the lot. Hopefully we can get it to verify.

Fantastic summary.  Thanks Tim!

As before, Jetstream splits into N & S branches straddling the UK to Wed 17th, but instead of the cut-off loop in mid Atlantic which was a previous feature, it's  more a case of the UK getting a direct westerly flow from Sat 20th onwards - some looping but we seem to be lways on the stronger S side of the loop. Not  good sign - 10-day summary also shows current wamth over Scandi getting swept away from the west in week 2 with SE Britain holding on to a littlw warmth- just!

GFS for this week, current LP filling and eventually (Sat 20th) ending up as a col between vigorous-looking depression on Atlantic and generalised LP over Europe, weak ridge of HP  from Azores to Norway. That ridge hangs on for the following week. almost a decent HP on Tue 23rd, but the Atlantic wins out by Sat 27th and dictates a zonal pattern across the UK.

GEFS for the S - temps generally near seasonal norm though op & control go for a warm spell around Thu 25th; rain early on esp Thu 18th and a few days after, becoming drier later. For the N of UK, temps above seasonal norm at first, rain quite frequent in W, drier in E. Doesn't IMO match the synoptics well.

ECM - later predictions still 12z at time of posting - similar to GFS but much stronger HP around Tue 23rd. EDIT HP confirmed on 0z run

Still just about on course for Azores high glory this morning. In about 6 days ish. ECM is an absolute beauty this morning what summer dreams are made of.

Good summary although the comment about my weight was unescessary....

That would make a nice change.  But for the end of this week both GEFS and FAX charts show a good bit of rain for the far south of the country, including this corner, though Moomin's baleful prediction for those of us looking for more rain that we will get what we want "and then some" is awaiting the evidence to verify or discredit it.

The will we hit 30C question is an interesting one. I think there's paradoxically more chance of doing so in a Westerly regime than in the Easterly / blocking conditions we've seen in the last couple of months, because it only takes one ridge ahead of a frontal system and we get 15C 850s up from the continent.

I would say anything showing as 27C maxes on GFS, or 28-29C on the high res models like ICON or Arpege, gives a chance for 30C somewhere. On the 06z there are 3 or 4 days that have the potential to hit 30, including one where 30C itself is modelled for London, which probably means 32C at least.

However, any further incursion of the Atlantic low this weekend and we are close to running out of time in June for a 30C. There is still an unusual amount of scatter in the ENS from this Thursday onwards (another feature of Westerlies - more spread in the 850s than under Easterlies).

The NWP is near on perfect for here in the next week to 10 days.

Warm this week with largely unbroken sunshine near the coast but always with the chance of a decent thunderstorm or chase within a 30 minute drive or so. Chance of some imports wednesday night.

There will also be light winds and warm evenings which combined with the solstice daylength is simply awesome.

and of course we have the possibility of temperatures ramping up significantly next week.

Summers in Southern England these days rarely disappoint. 

Getting back to the here and now (well, almost), while doing my bi-weekly Cloud Master weather outlook, I noticed Thursday looking likely to be particularly wet at my end courtesy of a slow moving occluded front coming in from France. That could deliver a spell of appreciable rainfall which my lawn does need before it go all drier and more settled later on down the line.