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Downpour
16 June 2020 15:04:15


 


Yes, that annoying "Azores High" keeps hanging around the Azores because of the pesky "Icelandic Low" which persistently loiters around Iceland.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


 



Chingford
London E4
147ft
Saint Snow
16 June 2020 15:29:33

Yes it’s proper British summer weather.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


And that's half of why our climate is so utterly ****ing s***e.


 


(the other half being the tepid & damp winters)



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Rob K
16 June 2020 16:10:01


 


 


And that's half of why our climate is so utterly ****ing s***e.


 


(the other half being the tepid & damp winters)


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Really? Actually I love weather like this. Proper muggy warmth with really intense sun, and interesting cloudscapes too. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2020 17:27:17

Thing is it's not proper British summer weather. It's proper continental European (Central France, Germany and the Alps) summer weather. Warm with sunshine and convective showers.


Proper average British summer weather is cloudy but dry, basically. At least here in the SE.


 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
16 June 2020 17:37:24

Growing signs of the blowtorch next week. Not certain by any means but it increasingly seems like an annual occurrence these days. 



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
tierradelfuego
16 June 2020 18:14:17


Growing signs of the blowtorch next week. Not certain by any means but it increasingly seems like an annual occurrence these days. 



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Few more rainfall spikes in London Brian. Being IMBY in Berkshire and I'm sure Oxfordshire given the proximity, it really looks like drying out for the rest of the month. Back to watering the veg garden again...


Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2020 18:23:38
GFS op progged maxes from tomorrow onwards: 23,23,22,21,22,22,26,29,24,21,24,20,23,24,25,25

Generally warm (we can add 2 on to most of those) and with a short sharp plume topping out at around 31C.

Note GFS op is on the cool side vs ENS during the warm spell next week.

ECM marginally higher pressure than GFS up to 120hrs.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Downpour
16 June 2020 18:55:32


 


 


Few more rainfall spikes in London Brian. Being IMBY in Berkshire and I'm sure Oxfordshire given the proximity, it really looks like drying out for the rest of the month. Back to watering the veg garden again...


Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 


Correction: most of Oxfordshire.


Drive a few buckets to Witney if you want to save on your water bill. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2020 20:16:40
Another nice ECM, though later to the party and in a more roundabout way.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
16 June 2020 20:40:23

Another nice ECM, though later to the party and in a more roundabout way.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Hottest ECM of the year, or hottest I have seen anyway. Well into the 30s by the end. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Saint Snow
16 June 2020 20:41:55


 


Really? Actually I love weather like this. Proper muggy warmth with really intense sun, and interesting cloudscapes too. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


I'd rather have 2/3 months of knowing rain is a rare occurrence, so ond can plan domestic holidays, days out, parties, etc with some confidence. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
johncs2016
16 June 2020 20:59:21


Thing is it's not proper British summer weather. It's proper continental European (Central France, Germany and the Alps) summer weather. Warm with sunshine and convective showers.


Proper average British summer weather is cloudy but dry, basically. At least here in the SE.


 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


I know that you are probably referring to SE England here, but think we can say that this has increasingly become the case here in SE Scotland as well, hence the really boring and uninteresting start to this summer which we have had here in Edinburgh.


Looking at the latest model output as well, I can't see anything different coming up within the more reliable time, from that same old borefest with the weather continuing to be at least, be more interesting elsewhere in the UK as has been the case until now.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Crepuscular Ray
16 June 2020 21:54:10


 


I know that you are probably referring to SE England here, but think we can say that this has increasingly become the case here in SE Scotland as well, hence the really boring and uninteresting start to this summer which we have had here in Edinburgh.


Looking at the latest model output as well, I can't see anything different coming up within the more reliable time, from that same old borefest with the weather continuing to be at least, be more interesting elsewhere in the UK as has been the case until now.


 


Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Down in Yorkshire John and we've had 4 days of strong sun after a grey morning with thunder heard each day and amazing skies full of fantastic Cumulonimbus. Even funnel clouds on the Pennines to my west. This evenings forked lightning quite spectacular over the moors. Temperature 22 C. Glad to escape the Edinburgh haar!


Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
moomin75
17 June 2020 06:59:48
And once again the Azores high fails to build properly as it is forced back by the deep troughing to the north and west. A brief warm up only, but all models want to maintain the largely unsettled and changeable weather. This summer is going to remain in this pattern throughout in my view. In other words, a bog standard normal British summer, changeable.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
17 June 2020 07:12:49

And once again the Azores high fails to build properly as it is forced back by the deep troughing to the north and west. A brief warm up only, but all models want to maintain the largely unsettled and changeable weather. This summer is going to remain in this pattern throughout in my view. In other words, a bog standard normal British summer, changeable.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Good to see you are now going fir a standard normal British summer not the write of you mentioned over the last week or two. 


A decent outlook this morning. Generally warmer than average (maybe hit in the south for a time) with some very usable weather and some rain around. 


It could get toasty in the SE for a time next week https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPUK00_192_2.png 


moomin75
17 June 2020 07:19:12


 


Good to see you are now going fir a standard normal British summer not the write of you mentioned over the last week or two. 


A decent outlook this morning. Generally warmer than average (maybe hit in the south for a time) with some very usable weather and some rain around. 


It could get toasty in the SE for a time next week https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPUK00_192_2.png 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Pretty standard summers can still see flooding.


As I said 7 days ago, the weather will start making news headlines by mid to late month. I see that is now indeed the case and will be very impactful between now and the weekend.


 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
speckledjim
17 June 2020 07:23:34


Pretty standard summers can still see flooding.


As I said 7 days ago, the weather will start making news headlines by mid to late month. I see that is now indeed the case and will be very impactful between now and the weekend.


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


you also said temperatures would be 3-4c below average


Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2020 07:24:58

An interesting very active front shown on FAX for tomorrow (Thu) across southern counties - looks minimal on the FAx chart but rainfall predictions are enormous.


GFS - the current rather slack and thundery LP dissipates  and then Sun 21st rather deep atlantic depresssion to the NW tussling with high to the SE; eventually they cancel each other out Sun 28th and give quiet weather for a day or two before another LP centre develops over Shetland Wed 1st soon moving E-wards.


GEFS - In the S becoming v warm around Thu 25th before dropping back to norm. Little rain, even in the next day or two. Scotland, NI and NW England temps close to norm (NW England gets a brief taste of the warmth further S) and rain quite frequent


ECM - similar to GFS but LP approaches closer on Fri 19th before backing off


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2020 07:24:59
I’m plumping for p12 if this morning’s GEFS. That’ll do me. Or p1/p11 of GEM ensemble. Those dream runs rarely if ever actually transpire but they make for a good spectator sport every summer.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
17 June 2020 07:46:22


 


you also said temperatures would be 3-4c below average


Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

Um. They were last week. And I said they would be 3-4c below average the week before.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2020 08:01:15

Going by the ECM and it's mean this morning a decent very warm to hot spell for the SE and EA for 4 days from 24th to 27th. Temps 27c to 31c my punt .


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
David M Porter
17 June 2020 08:30:15


Pretty standard summers can still see flooding.


As I said 7 days ago, the weather will start making news headlines by mid to late month. I see that is now indeed the case and will be very impactful between now and the weekend.


 


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


In a good way or a bad way?



Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
17 June 2020 08:43:27
Slightly frustrating model watching at the moment as it’s on the verge of a fantastic spell but the LP influence is just too great to keep it totally settled. I’m hoping for a dry weekend, or at least Saturday night into Sunday morning as I am planning a night ride. It’s touch and go at the moment.

30C+ looking a fair bet for next week though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
17 June 2020 08:51:56

Slightly frustrating model watching at the moment as it’s on the verge of a fantastic spell but the LP influence is just too great to keep it totally settled. I’m hoping for a dry weekend, or at least Saturday night into Sunday morning as I am planning a night ride. It’s touch and go at the moment.

30C+ looking a fair bet for next week though.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Exactly this. Azores high desperately trying to settle things down but being thwarted by that deep low pressure out to our north west 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
David M Porter
17 June 2020 08:59:06

As has been mentioned previously, it looks like fairly standard British summer weather that is on offer from most of the output at the moment. No notable heatwaves, but at the same time no washouts either. That would be my summation of it anyway.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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