GFS blows the heat east by Saturday afternoon. But UKMO remains absolutely roasting until Sunday afternoon and by the looks much longer

Looks like Edinburgh and Inverness were two of the lucky places up here on Friday. We were forecast to reach about 27C in this area but in the event, I don't think we got higher than the low 20s. Not sunny enough!

Big model uncertainty for sure from Saturday onwards.

This happens so often: there's an extended heatwave modelled across the board, but always with one or two outliers that show it ending sooner. Then one of the models grabs hold of the ending sooner theme and starts to model it consistently, while others keep the heat going.

Then at some point 4 or 5 days before the event the other models fall into line and we get the cliff in 850s. Then it becomes a question about how soon that cliff arrives. The cliff always wins.

Looking at GEFS dripping out this evening it seems we have a cliff due sometime on Saturday or Sunday. GEFS mean down to average by early next week, even if a bit warmer than the op.

GEFS offers solid support for cooler air to return this weekend. Mean is reasonably representative.

Remember that that earlier this summer, the GFS and all 20 of its ensembles were wrong at T96!
GEM and ICON don’t agree with it, and neither does UKMO, which after a short cool off, look to reload the heat.

Kind of agree with this, but my instinct is that if GFS shows something less favourable, it's more often than not, near the mark.

ECM nearly loses the heat at 144hrs from the south and east, but at 168 it seems to build back in again. Still all to play for.

ECM is 40c run insane heat

They were very much the exceptions. It was a flop in NE Scotland away from the Moray Firth as a mass of unforecast cloud appeared in the middle of the day to peg back the temperatures.

It's been dire ever since and a prolonged settled spell is required rather than record or near record heat. Another cold and wet day tomorrow which will mean we have endured about a months worth of rain in just 10 days 

Then some better but unspectacular days, that won't be good enough to cancel out the appalling start to the month, before it goes downhill rapidly in time for the weekend. Yet another write-off weekend on the cards - virtual repeat of the last one by the looks of things. More drizzly, damp, cool and cloudy NW'ly rubbish here in New Shetland:

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2020/08/03/basis06/ukuk/pslv/20080815_0306.gif​

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2020/08/03/basis06/ukuk/prec/20080815_0306.gif

https://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/web/en/2020/08/03/basis06/ukuk/rart/20080912_0306.gif​

The following weekend I'm going to Glencoe and dread to think how bad it will be there 

It's showing 35c widely next Tuesday you can normally add 2or 3 to that. It was 5c too low last Friday.

Perhaps not quite 40C, but close to it and with heat index in the 40s as DPs are very high. 

It's a frighteningly hot run to be honest. I like extremes but I'd be struggling in that heat.

of course it can verify - we just had 37.8 from a 2 day blast Europe is hot it won’t take much. Don’t dismiss as you don’t believe, the foundation is there for it