12Z is not quite as HP dominated but not bad for the most part.

GFS 12z op a cool outlier from mid next week onwards. Quite a marked outlier, no ENS support. But that's been the case (op much cooler than the pack) frequently throughout this summer.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Not very often you get to see the 22C isotherm over the UK!

(Crocodile Dundee voice on)

That’s not an outlier. This is an outlier. 

Not so keen - a bit Easterly and then the bubbling low moves in next week. 

Jetstream from the S at the moment but non-existent anywhere the UK from Saturday until Tue 18th when it resumes W-ly close to the N of Scotland

GFS - Ridge of HP from Azores to Norway persists with high temps until Tue 18th when the Norway end of it collapses, and the Azores end moves to become centred over the Low Countries Sat 22nd. Continental LP pushes up against the ridge from time to time affecting only the S, most notably Fri 14th.

GEFS - Temps in the S v.high to Fri 14th (7-8C above norm) then sharply dropping to close or even a bit below norm. Some rain irom Tue 11th onward, no clear pattern. Scotland and the N similar but slower to warm up, not reaching the high temps until Mon 10th.

ECM - also has ridge in place but like yesterday shows it as  more of a twin-centre feature with the UK under a col and the Continental LP more prominent

Arpege says close but no cigar. Still bloody awful heat though

Now looking like peak 850s could be around 12/13 Aug.

Yes I just mentioned in the record temps thread that it looks like the start of the heat has been moderated slightly but it maintains a blistering level for longer - a full week of 30C+ heat looks very likely, with maybe 5 days of 35C+.

It's hard to believe that as I look out at the dank grey cloud outside this morning though!

PS Brian have you had site problems this morning? I tried to access around 9am and couldn't get on the site.

Could be perfect weather week, it was hinted at a long time back as well

Is the 06z GFS the hottest operational run in the history of TWO?

Surely a contender?

Probably level with 2003 I think.

I wonder if a Level 4 Heatwave warning will be issued?

BBC website forecast for here next week shows a total washout most days. 

Last few GFS runs have been characterised by a lot of PPN in UK/France during the next 7-10 days despite high pressure over much of NW Europe. From the midpoint in the runs, that PPN risk expands into the rest of western/central Europe whilst diminishing over the UK from the north to the south.

There was a problem with one of the servers this morning for about 30 minutes.

My experience with that is wait a few hours and you might get something that looks rather more promising, it chops & changes around so much. It's fine for the broader picture and trends but for the weather on any specific day, it's pretty useless.

Looks like you were right here about Met- but GEFS have also had a change of heart, so both.

This illustrates for all to see, just what a difference a week makes- underlying signals are larger scale than those which can predict regional weather. A reminder not to write off, or write on, anything too early (not meaning you here Pictures!)

That is an excellent image to back up what I posted yesterday (in support of Retron) in the Regional Climate Shift thread about the continental influence on the climate of the far SE, especially Kent, Essex, and Sussex, and generally SE of the Chilterns.