Yep, sorta just gets blown away. I think we need to get it into the high res. I always find GFS just blows everything away so quickly. 

Fun times though

Two week summary: http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 .Much more widespread colder weather moving from the E into eastern Europe. For week 1 temps above average for whole of Europe, the colder weather in week 2 may do no more than restore temp to average. Dry across whole of Europe for 2 weeks with the UK on the edge of the dry area.

GFS: HP moving across UK to centre Romania 1030mb Sun 8th with shallow LP sitting in the SW approaches. HP first ridges N-wards then transfers centre to Baltic 1040mb Sun 15th while LP skirmishes off W Ireland. The HP centre then moves W-wards to 1030mb over the N Sea Thu 19th for an Atlantic battle with the LP generating  S-ly gales but end of run Sat 21st suggests the Atlantic LP will win.

GEFS: After a few days of mild weather, temps close to or a bit above average through to Sat 21st - the really cold outliers have disappeared. Distinctly more variability in the N. Rain appears in one run or other on most days after Sun 8th, more marked in SW England / N Ireland, very little in E Anglia, but nothing consistent as to actual dates. 

ECM: similar to GFS as far as Thu 12th but then HP over Scandi collapses allowing LP to move over Scotland the following day and setting up a SW-ly regime to follow

Cold anomaly still showing for early December but these 850s are incredible. The anomaly over 16 days would surely challenge records.

Theres bigger changes happening affoot to the east..  massive swathes of blue heading this way has to be a good thing - right?

Strong consensus for us to be on the western side of a block.

Would bring lovely weather in the summer, but has the risk of Damp and wet at the moment... fingers crossed we just get the warm breeze

Just think what we had in 2010. That was incredible.

Any shade of blue anywhere on that map would cheer me up! But, yes, change could well be afoot. Let's hope so anyway.

GEFS data tables can now be viewed on TWO. Probably not everyone's cup of tea but the colour coding makes it easy IMO to spot trends.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx

Great new feature added to TWO which displays the selected forecast variable from all of the GEFS runs in a colour coded table form. You can quickly spot trends, e.g. pressure or temperature out to 384 hours. Updates every 6 hours https://t.co/8NOLQLncYQ pic.twitter.com/1BLGurAUpP

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 5, 2020

I think there's a problem with the Aberdeen ones. Shouldn't they be just varying shades of grey?

I like that Brian

Good addition 

Looking above average and dull for the rest of November today.
Typically all the hints of HP over Scandy have evaporated like a puddle of urine in the doorway of weatherspoons.

Jetstream currently N of the UK (with some fragments around Iberia). Loop developing on the Atlantic affecting UK on its leading edge Wed 11th and staying around irregularly for the following week. More conventional W-ly flow Thu 19th to S of UK which after a wriggle moves to N of UK Sun 21st.

GFS shows HP over Romania by Sun 8th with LP in SW approaches, the LP soon incorporated into general Atlantic circulation, the HP ridging N to the Baltic and staying there to Wed 18th. For that week (11th-18th) Atlantic LP brushing the W of the UK, closest approach Thu 12th. HP centre re-positions over UK 1030mb Sat 21st. Hint of a TS moving towards Portugal on the following day.

FAX makes a lot more of the LP Mon 9th with centre W of Ireland projecting a trough across UK

GEFS mild at first, down to norm Wed 11th in S, otherwise mean of runs staying on the mild side through to Sun 22nd but with significantly less agreement further N. (contrast mild UK with large mass of cold air moving into SE Europe). Possibility of rain of most days but not much and not consistent between runs.

ECM similar to GFS

I don't bother with the MO in winter any more - the heady days of 2010 are a distant memory.

Too depressing looking at the relentless dross (in reliable) and sceuro/barlett HPs. Getting the occasional exciting chart in deep FI does not cut the mustard I am afraid.

Let's look at the teleconnections this season - there is nothing which promotes winter festive cheer (again!) - QBO/MJO/ENSO/Indian Ocean Dipole -  all conspire against NW Europe getting a decent winter, every goddam winter!

If you want something other than a borefest in winter, move to Canada.

I agree it is somewhat bleak and depressing isn't it!?

Exeter reached -1c last night with a frost - I guess this could be the coldest night time min temp for the rest of the month..!?

We are coming out of solar minimum and should now have greater chances of a colder winter, we should be in an easterly QBO as well and a weak La Nina not a super strong La Nina, The IOD should go negative this winter NOT positive - the NE pacific SST's should cool down NOT warm up! Temperatures at 10hpa as well as 30hpa are colder than average as always which will help power up the PV and increase strength of zonal winds as is evident!? Everything is going against the chances of a cold winter sadly. Again! 

Seasonal festive events cancelled including outdoor ones. - Very sad!! Where do we go from here!?

To see only a couple ENS go at or below -5c at 850hpa (even in FI range) is quite remarkable really given we are heading towards the end of November! - Things could change but I remember from the past that history can repeat itself:

I anticipate temps to be mild and damp and mild nights! Drizzle and just gloomy dross! Quite boring in all honesty. At least it's only November and we're not in a winter month and we still have DEC, JAN & FEBRUARY but I said this last year and the year before and we all know what happened then!?

The AO is forecast to crash in the middle of November though , which could well help Northern blocking 

Really?

I don't put interpretation into the daily report, but only what the charts say.

However, I like the look of the next couple of weeks with fairly dry air coming up from the south on a reasonable breeze, so a good chance of dry, mild and sunny with not much fog and frost. Seriously cold weather can wait until Christmas, when there's a much better chance of crisp white frosts lasting well into the day, and if so be as weget snow, of that lying,not thawing by the next day.

"If there's ice in November will bear a duck, there's nothing thereafter but slush and muck"  - let's avoid that as  i for one don't want the winter to go off at half-cock    

Changed slightly since the last one I looked at a couple of days ago , but that still shows a falling trend , obviously can change again tomorrow ,

Oh I'm with you , just how many times have we said " far too early , needs to be in 8 weeks time "

Our biggest enemy is the PV , if can be displaced or fragmented then we always have a chance , if it sits solid such as it did last year then forget it......IMO