Need a 1947 / 1963 / 1981 or 2010 winter , there are many more I could mention but anything a kin to those mention will be fine 

[quote=Gooner;1275268]

Need a 1947 / 1963 / 1981 or 2010 winter , there are many more I could mention but anything a kin to those mention will be fine 

78/79 would be nice....that started with a very mild November to start...all changed the last week...warmed up for Christmas...the rest is history..

I've had two mozzy bites in the last fortnight.

Screw the wildlife.

GEFS have a few mid Atlantic ridges showing far out, maybe the chance of a long ter trend as per the control run. Tick rock, time will tell 😃

As we know the synoptic pattern can flip very quickly. I posted that chart from mid-December 1962 which had no hint of what was to come. What is certain is that we are at the ideal part of the solar cycle and have a favourable El Niño pattern; the dice are loaded in our favour but that's as far as it goes. If other pieces of the jigsaw fall favourably as well that backdrop will help.

16-dayer showing enough cold air moving into E Europe to bring temps below seasonal average for the first time for weeks, Scandi still well above norm but likely to drop in week 2. UK remaining close to norm or a little above. Wet in NW Europe incl UK week 1, dry over all W Europe week 2, rain/snow has moved to N Scandi & E Baltic. Eurasian snow cover still well out to east but this should change.

GFS continues with HP over Europe and LP over Atlantic, with UK sandwiched between, though UK looks more likely to be affected by Atlantic troughs than previously forecast. HP also breaks down more quickly to give W-lies by weekend with LP 970mb Faeroes by Sun 15th. New HP cell arising, first over Holland, then centred on UK 1045mb Thu 19th and staying though weakening to Thu 26th, fog and frost alert! (some N-ly gales over the Baltic)

GEFS temps well above average, peaks up to 10C above norm Wed 18th and Sun 22nd, but with dips before, between and after and (personal opinion, not GEFS) areas prone to fog may be locally much lower. Small amounts of rain around Thu 12th and Sun 15th, otherwise rather dry and nothing consistent.

ECM like GFS at first but holds HP further to SW Thu 19th with brisk W-lies/NW-lies across UK - no fog or frost in that scenario

Everything has a December 1970 look to it.....

That was before I was born. Please elucidate.

Just going through the archives of   that month...almost identical in the pre cold phase....was my first memory of snow ....everything fell right for SE England Xmas day...not been a proper white xmas here since 50 years wait crazy!!!.

Looked at the  archives of the mother of all mild winters 74/75 also ...even that in December showed big potential cold build up to the NE but it just didnt go UKS way.Every winter mild or cold is finely balanced ready to make a mug of you.....just keeps falling on wrong side of knife edge....UK has had dreadful luck for cold past half century. 

You could argue that global warming has reduced our chances of getting a cold winter. However, another way of looking at it would be that GW increases the chances of extreme weather even severe cold spells events though they are more likely to be cold snaps ala Jan '87 rather than month long freezes ala Feb '86. 

It is not winter though,  and few months have ended 'way' above normal, as has been noted. Most seeming to get a dose of extra cold periods lately. 

I particularly mentioned garden plants as they tend to be 'exotics', mostly from warmer climbs with extended summers.  They are loving it. 

Ah yes.  They years the UK almost became devoid of our most beautiful bird:

Kingfisher Threats - The RSPB

Once every 20 years or so sounds like an anomaly to me  ;)

End of Feb into March 2018 

2013

2012

2009

2008

2007

All recent cold spells with plant killing cold temperatures  and disruptive snowfall , so anomalies probably not 

I could have looked for more but got bored 

Talk about long fetch

Its not often you see a south westerly that out runs the actual chart.  

ECM 10 days out and has BAGS of potential , but where have we heard that before 

Bear in mind I live on the edge of London. I grow exotic plants and have  done since 1984.  No real damage in any of those years.   Only  2009-2010.  

Snow does not damage plants so much as protect them. That is why they spray the orange orchards with water in Florida when a severe frost is predicted.

Getting back to  1947 / 1963 / 1981 or 2010 winter    All exceptional anomalies.  According to folklore and the records.

Big flip in 16-dayer for week 2 - much colder over Scandi and much wetter over UK, the latter going from absolutely dry  to heavy rain esp ffor NW (the SE gets its rain in week 1)

GFS - current HP to E and LP to W collapses to general SW-lies by Sat 14th. For the following week LPs brush N Scotland while HP sits over Biscay (looking much more like yesterday's ECM) Pattern shifts from Mon 23rd with LP from NW running down into N Sea then, and again on Fri 27th, introducing colder N/NW-lies

GEFS - still peaks of warmth Sun 15th and Wed 18th but after that much closer to norm. Rain more likely ithan yesterday's forecast, in S around Sun 15th and Fri 20th, in W Scotland pretty well non-stop 9Other areas in the N & W also continual but not as heavy).

ECM - like GFS but more positive towards end of run Sat 21st with HP moving up from Biscay to Scilly.

True, but we had two winters in succession which had notable month-long freezes only a decade ago and that was after many of us here had been disussing for a while as to whether that could still happen in this country because of GW. We also had an unusually cold March in 2013 although that technically isn't a winter month.

For me anyway, the answer is still very much yes, if we get the right synoptics as we did at the end of 2009/start of 2010 and towards the end of 2010.

Different looking GFS charts this morning.

More mobile looking and less HP directly influenced, more a case of ridges of HP than specific cells.

Though i dont think this is done yet, more colder incursions are present this morning, and it could be we are starting to see a trend emerge to either zonal, or maybe more dominant northerly plunges.

Air being sourced from Bermuda

What an odd chart

Jetstream: waving about as it crosses the Atlantic but often affecting the UK from the west; weak for the remainder of this week, stronger next week, with a real blast Thu/Fri 19th/20th. Continues strong through to Sat 28th, mostly dipping south after leaving the UK, only at the end does it move into N Europe. Scandi should be quiet but increasingly cold but unsettled here.

GFS: A more or less continuous batch of W-lies for the next fortnight, with LPs running between Scotland and Iceland and only occasional passing deviations from this theme. HP ridge Brittany - Iceland at very end of run on Sat 28th

GEFS: temp peaks as yesterday around Sun 15th and Wed 18th after which an 'egg-beater' has been at work. More ain than forecast yesterday for S, more or less continuous everywhere bar a small gap around Tue 17th. The Atlantic rides again!

ECM: agrees generally though LPs not as deep and allowing HP to intrude from the S occasionally e.g. Tue 17th and again more strongly Sat 21st 

It was our turn in 2009/10. No doubt that set up will occur again.

Hello hello....

You are forgetting  a few of the years after December 2010 , that certainly wasn't the be all and end all in terms of snow , we have had several falls since then .