On the GEFS data tables I've not added a percentage breakdown of the runs to show how many fall into each group for a given forecast variable (e.g. 2m max temps, MSLP etc). It is automatically displayed below the main table.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx

The new GEFS data tables now also have a percentage breakdown showing how many runs fall into each category for the selected forecast variable https://t.co/cWraMTHdt6 pic.twitter.com/WOGA6kpEt5

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 6, 2020

Very good, Brian.

Can't blame you for what it shows.....

😉

Actually at the top levels of stratosphere it's very easterly, but will this infiltrate down into lower levels of the stratosphere at 30hpa? - Maybe, just maybe it could!?

GFS: broad HP settling over C/E Europe 1025 mb Mon 9th while UK plagued by shallow LP moving up the W coast before being swallowed by the Atlantic circulation. The Euro HP remains in place or a little further N until Thu 19th leaving UK sandwiched between it and large depression out on Atlantic, the latter throwing occasional troughs in our direction (Fri 13th, Mon 16th bear watching). The HP then collapses in the face of a strong W-ly flow eventually bringing LP close to N Scotland Mon 23rd.

GEFS: Mean of temp runs returning to seasonal norm with good agreement to Sat 14th, thereafter a degree or two above norm with increasing uncertainty. More rainfall spikes than yesterday,  and extra on several days for SW England/N Ireland. No good agreement between runs on timing of rainfall but some suggestion that Mon 16th/ Wed 18th may be wettest.

ECM: similar to GFS; trough on Mon 16th is more developed

Jetstream weak in the area of the UK until a trough moves in from the Atlantic  Wed 11th , which then resolves into a weak W-ly flow until Sat 14th. Then a stronger W-ly flow for a few days until another loop flips the main flow well to the N of the UK where it stays through to Tue 24th.

GFS shows HP over Baltic and LP over Atlantic with S-ly winds over UK; occasional troughs embedded in the flow affecting mostly the northwest, notably Thu 12th and Sun 15th. The HP moves W-wards and links to the Azores high Thu 19th, resolving into its centre sitting over the UK Tue 24th. To start with (the 19th), the source of the air is from the SE so dry and sunny but later from the SW so fog more likely.

GEFS mean of runs keeps temps mostly at or a little above normal throughout, with the usual increasing scatter from  a week ahead. Some chance of rain Thu 12th - Thu 19th in England (and continuing after that in Scotland) but rather more definite for N Ireland and NW Scotland, minimal for E Anglia

ECM similar to GFS but with LP encroaching on NW Scotland Wed 18th while HP develops more to the SE rather than over the UK

Pretty depressing charts if it's cold weather you are hoping for., more so if this was between Dec 1-14  which is a very crucial period on how our winter could pan out.Saying that though living in Kent seeing a snowflake come out the sky at some stage in November has been as reliable a gauge to snow through the winter months than any model or forecast so prospects could be bleak.

Bleak and depressing doesn't even begin to describe the current situation if you live here. Should be much colder than Devon but haven't even come close to recording a frost. Only two nights of this autumn have been colder than the coldest night of summer: +1.9C in October and +2.2C this month. Coldest max just 8.8C.

Nothing colder on the cards with just about the worst outlook imaginable. It's grim without precedent. All we have to look forward to are days on end of the revolting, repellent muck we have today. Stupidly mild nights with almost no diurnal range. The third vile November on the trot.

That this autumn could be worse than utter dross like 2006, 2011 and 2014 should serve as a warning for those who think the coming winter couldn't be worse than last year. At the start of this year I made a prediction that December would be frost-free here and on the basis of this horror autumn the odds of that happening must surely never have been shorter.

There just isn't a floor on how how low things can sink any more 

Off topic but yes yesterday was absolutely glorious and felt wonderful in the sunshine.

GEFS 35 continues to show colder conditions in late November and early December. The anomaly across the European regions has been surprisingly consistent for a while now. 

(View charts here https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-europe.aspx )

PS: Remember with GEFS35 it is basically 24 hours old when published regardless of the website / app you view it on.

Last year at least brought us some cold weather in October and November. That didn't deliver us any snow, but that was a period where we actually did quite wewll in terms of the number of air frosts although as it turned out, that then ended up being "it" for our "winter".

However, we haven't even been able to get any of that during this autumn, especially from October onwards. October failed to deliver a single air frost to this part of the world and we haven't even come close to getting a frost during this month either, up until now.

Once again, we have that same old story of a strongly positive AO/NAO and very cold stratospheric temperatures over the North Pole, all things which drive a strong polar vortex with strong westerlies and mild temperatures, with the only difference being that all of this has arrived much earlier this year instead of being delayed until the start of the actual winter as it was last year.

Finally, the models after playing around with easterly winds and northern blocking for a while,are now offering us virtually no hope whatsoever, of any cold weather within the foreseeable future so from that perspective, I have to say that it is all looking a bit grim just now.

GFS - HP over Europe and LP over Atlantic with UK sandwiched between the two. Atlantic more prominent than forecast yesterday, esp Thu 12th with small trough moving in; by Mon 16th the HP has collapsed and a depression is sitting over Shetland 980mb. HP then sets up over France Wed 18th and its centre moves around  in the region of the southern UK through to Wed 25th. LP never far from the NW and strong pressure gradient will give SW gales from time to time.

GEFS - a less steady temp profile than yesterday, swinging between seasonal norm and very mild (oxymoron there?), the mild peaks on Fri 13th (only in S), Sun 15th, Wed 18th after which everything from 8C above norm to 5C below appears in various runs. Not much rain for the most part towards the SE though there could be something around Mon 16th in S, in E Scotland more likely 15th and 17th. A lot more rain generally in the W and esp NW

ECM similar to GFS, if anything positions HP/LP for more of a W-ly than SW-ly aspect

Looking at the latest model output, I can't help thinking that there is a bit of an "if only it were summer" element in all of this just now, with mild or very mild winds from the south playing such a major part in the proceedings.

Those winds from the south or SW are after all, the very same winds which in around July, normally brings us our highest temperatures of the year (the upper 20s°C even here in Edinburgh with that same setup producing our hottest day on record in 2019 with a temperature of 31.6°C at Edinburgh Gogarbank).

It would therefore be interesting to see just how hot it got if we had this sort of setup during the summer. My guess is that the temperatures would probably easily get into the upper 30s°C in places such as SE England with a lot of comment on forums such as this one, about a possibility a temperature of 40°C or above being reached somewhere within the UK.

That is certainly not the sort of setup which we want to be seeing at this time of the year, which is supposed to be a "cooling" period after all. Yet this is the sort of setup which occurs all too often during the winter half of the year whilst only ever really coming in very short bursts during the summer, with our weather at that time of year being dominated more by cooler and often we conditions, especially here in the northern half of the UK.

This is what I'm looking for HP to sit over the UK 

Hopefully we can then get it into a favourable position 

Not quite but you get the idea 

The heights over France and Spain could spoil our opportunities again this winter!

Does anyone know what the charts looked like this time in 1981? That was a lovely December/ January... spoilt by February..

Gavs Weather has a video on that winter - worth a watch 

The theme continues from GFS , HP sitting over the UK 

Just to get a quick one in for the majority of the population, the wildlife and our garden plants.

Thank goodness it is not freezing cold and will not be for the foreseeable and is just fairly standard 'British' weather.

+5c on average temperatures for the time of year is surely/hopefully not standard 'British' weather, as much as recent winters may make us think it is?

Some things (garden plants especially), and not just some of us in our desire, do need cold weather to recuperate, regenerate and thrive in following seasons. 

GFS 12z Control starts to show something interesting late on