In the interests of being balanced....

The mildest run @300hrs...

Guaranteed to happen of course XD

But even this turns colder

Tells a story.......drier end with coldest nights of winter?

SW blizzard those mid month spikes?

 

---

Interesting ECM this morning the slightest of height rises to our north at 192h. Nearly gets us to the promised land by day 10.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

---

Jetstream strong and across mostly the S of UK until Sun 31st when it breaks up into loops which first drag it further S by Thu 4th and finally break it up chaotically before it resumes well to the S Mon 8th.

GFS generally shows a passage of LPs from the Atlantic, the occasional one hanging around long enough to introduce a brief but not very cold N-ly day or so (e.g. Sun 31st 975mb central England, Thu 4th 990mb N Sea) . Ridge of HP to the W on Sat 6th moves rapidly to become major high over Sweden 1055mb Mon 8th bringing E-lies from deep in Russia (but all the cold air which it could have drawn on has been pushed away by the preceding two weeks of W-lies)

GEFS cold to Wed 27th (even a snow row value of 23 spotted for Brighton), mild to Sun 31st, short-lived cold dip and recovery before most runs settle into a cold orientation with op and control leading the way to very cold from Thu 4th. Rain/snow around on most days but trend is to drier weather from Thu 4th. Scotland has a briefer mild spell, and once the temp has dipped on Sat 30th it stays that way (though hints of a milder end of run). Also rather drier in E Scotland than in England.

ECM agrees with GFS 

---

A very solid looking Scandi high at the end of the GFS run this morning but we have the same problem we had earlier in the winter with no cold air this side of the Urals to tap into.

---

Yep you couldn’t make it up. That’s probably the scenario we will end up with. Can you imagine all this waiting and we end up back at square one lol.

 

---

What's up with you guys..... Enjoy potential in the here and now ! 

---

Your right Steve. To be honest, I am hopeful for tomorrow. 

---

Generally a coolish outlook up here with a briefly more average blip in a few days time. Totally uninspiring and largely snow free with hints of easterly muck and FI promise.

Now the models show. Good consensus for conditions cold enough for snow it shows us being in completely dry conditions until the milder blip and rain moves in for a while.

---

Things have looked up and down since the turn of the year. But with every passing fail, perhaps we’ll all be dead by the time the last fading, feeble easterly meets these shores.

Models certainly picking up the signal for height rises to the north, but before that lots of rain! Oh dear

---

Tomas Schnnackerssnzzzznifkfkfkfkmehejer going with 10cm widely across the south first thing tomorrow morning

Looks like there might be more snow events especially for southern Scotland and northern England depending where any low pressures track. Cold air never too far away from Scotland.

That’s the spirit! 

---

I have been following SSW and effects on PV movement displacement for a couple of years (the 2018 beast, promoted that interest) and thought I could read this chart in a generic sense, well enough to see if what was going on in the Strat particularly during warming made it into the Trop. This current unusual event is apparently delaying the mixing of atmospheres into the Trop (like it’s being shoved back up), why, and what the actual outcome will be, is yet to be observed, but considering this information helps form opinion for events in the Trop, it’s no wonder models are struggling to cope. 

Have you seen the ECM control !

---

Steady as she goes this morning. Cold, milder and then very probably colder again during the early part of February. More emphasis on colder conditions in the north.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/premium/gefs-tables.aspx

 

---

Rise in Ensemble mean 850hPa(London) from minimum of -6.4C on last night's 18z to -3.9C on 00z this morning in later reaches of run. Hopefully back downward trend in 06z.

---

Yup, -12C 850s and not even an ice day from it.

(Other locations are available and may have better results. )

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/m0_temperature/20210123-1200z.html

is the link to play with it.

---

Quite a flip between 00z and 06z run from +300z 

 

The Scandinavian High turns into a Scandinavian low - just as well it's over 300z away:

00z run:

06z run

---

Hi Retron.... I was looking at the De Bildt set. -10c day maxes by end

---

Yes, even the mean is flipping 3C per run at that stage.

---

I hadn’t seen how cold the 18Z GFS ensembles were. The 6Z look very slightly colder than the 0Z but now where near the 18Z. Still looks like a cool down of some sort is likely around the 4th-5th of Feb.

---

Then London would be looking at -2 to -3 maxes while outside the city and away from cities should see -5C or so.   Feb was -2 and -7C in London while in West Ewell, Surrey was -5C and -11C over night.  I used to rely on Dutch weather forecasts to know the outcome for here during teletext days and no models before.  I prefer the past days which always come right unlike now most models had been wrong and resulted different on the ground condition.

I was watching him this morning and he seemed hungover. Absolutely woeful and could barely string a sentence together. 

But I still love him. :D 

---