No closer to resolving anything again this morning. The only certainty is we’re another day closer to Spring 😎
ECM is not toeing the line with it’s cousin the GEM and although the control and a few GEFS go down the NE block route there’s still too much variety to make a call on the outlook.
There’s a possible general snowfall this weekend and that will no doubt keep the pundits happy for a while.
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
FWIW I'd say the ECM ens this morning are a reasonable match for the GFS ens - so mild blip incoming, then a cool down to below average for a couple of days, another little milder blip in early Feb and then cooling down again. There's presumably competing signals the further out you go (as usual) as whilst the mean is -2/-3* by the end there's a noticeable amount that go milder.
*I know means are a bit pointless in many cases but from looking at the ens in that format it does usually correspond to a decent chance of colder than average.
When you look at a lot of the near misses on the main models how much strength the Atlantic has and the track the LPs take is clearly more important to the outcome than usual. History suggests the Atlantic will push any block away so that the South at least stays milder but it wouldn't take much to move the outcome to a more widespread cold one, as a reasonable chunk of both the GFS and ECM ens show. I don't know if the expected reduction in the jet courtesy of the latest warming has taken place or is still expected to, but maybe as we get closer to the reliable the jet strength will have been overplayed and it'll be 'game on'.
(South centric view as usual. A quick look at the ens in the North suggests a much greater chance of it being generally cold up there, imminent milder blip aside. As has been the case for quite a while now I guess).
In the nearer term there's still some snow chances around as the Atlantic pushes in to the colder air although consensus looks to me to be fairly fleeting over higher ground in Northern England (maybe to lower levels for a brief time too) and more chance of snow for the higher parts of Scotland, away from the coasts. Again though it wouldn't take much to change the balance on that, both to more rain or more snow although the latter would need the HP ridge coming up from the SW to be less prominent or to be shoved southwards by the encroaching LPs IMO and that looks unlikely to me
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