The initial high collapses but the sliding low just promoted even stronger blocking down the line.

Look like a pretty decent set of GEFS so far with the mean 850mb temp down to -7C in London at T240.

P20 goes for a Jan 1987 redux (almost)

6z op run shows even our little bit of the UK to be in mostly sub zero 850s after the current warmer air moves through. There's a little spell of 12-14 hours around T120 where we go mild again but other than that 850s are average at best although I appreciate in a mostly westerly based flow as we are in for the reliable part of the run actual ground temps may be above average and nights may be quite mild due to wind and rain.

I suspect it'll feel mostly 'meh' down here, unless we get some quieter sunny spells. Sub zero 850s with wind and rain though just sounds like the same unpleasantness we've had for 5 weeks or so now, with occasional milder interludes. 

Trend wise though and the 6z op gets a thumbs up, will be interesting to see how much support a colder evolution has in the ens. Be nice to see a continuation of cool/cold gaining ground but I'd be entirely unsurprised to see the milder members gaining support again too.

I’m happy with the 06z ensembles.

Upgrades welcomed on the 12z please.

On a side note, to is hideously mild - very unwelcome interruption. 

Yes - LOOKS LIKE QUITE A Cold cluster developing from 4th /5th Feb:

Actually I just went outside to do a couple of jobs in the garden and it felt lovely in the brief spells of sunshine! The best cold spells often come with a warm blast just beforehand, to pump up the blocking.

I was thinking the very same thing on my walk just now!

This is different, imo, from what we've seen for many years.

FWIW the Aberdeen equivalent is up to 27 on the 06z GFS ensemble suite (with two of those sub -15).

I would expect things to moderate a bit on the 12z run however overall the ensembles are consistently chilly up here with good agreement in the coming 5 or 6 days and a robust sign for cold among the options beyond that:

Very chilly for you indeed.

Meanwhile....for the centre of England.......

I must be seeing these ensemble charts sooner than other people on Wetterzentrale judging by the earlier pessimism as against my unusual optimism this morning.  Glad to see people following suit now.

No, I'm still pessimistic, as they still show easterly muck and cold rain. 

Realistically something like some of the colder options from the 06z GFS suite (including the op run). You would have much less of a moderation effect in your location than there would be here, so would do better from many of the synoptics shown. I have seen rain here with t850's below -10ºC from the east. A northeast  source is a better prospect. With a SEly, hell could freeze over but we would still get drizzle here.

There is a glimmer of hope but we really need properly cold with no mixing like the grey cold muck here currently. Day after day of t850's of -7ºC or below is soul destroying when it brings persistent cool damp conditions.

Same here went up to 12C and quite a bit of sunshine today with heating off since this morning.  Same in 1991 it was 8C before dropping to -5C 3 days later.  My apps had been stubborn showing snow at 100% 2C with -3C over night on Sat night on which model they use seem nailed on since last weekend without changing or removing it.  With the snow coming here early on Sat is good timing as it the coldest time of the day to start off with.

Op run gives a snow event to parts of the south next Thursday. Seems to be showing a sinking high again - will it reload after that as the last run did?

Parallel run a little slower to bring in the cold air but looks to be getting there.

There is - and D8 is probably far enough.

Havubg said that, the GFSP looks to be going down the route to Ragnarok again 😉

Have to say, despite the majority elation with the GFS 6z evolution I wasn't overly keen on it, as it delayed the cold and threw up an additional obstacle to get over. Even less keen with the 12z evolution to 240 as it could go badly wrong from there 

Mmm. You could be right, but I guess the trouble is that everything is pushed further back into deeper FI. The ENS will be of particular interest tonight. 

Well I guess that would be pretty normal but at least it isn't a wishy washy marginal set up so if it does ........