Not a bad GFS 6z for here although in the reliable range it's just wet/unsettled and I imagine localised flooding would be a given at points. Areas further North (and frustratingly not even very much further North) fair better and Scotland in particular is cold pretty much from T0 to T270 or so.

If the pattern came close to verifying and we had a couple of days of snow as shown before a cold crisp HP for a few days I'd take that and the latter part of the run is HP dominated down here so we'd hopefully dry out a bit. We're also rapidly approaching that time of year where you can feel the sun quite strongly and a quiet HP spell with not cold uppers as shown at the end of the run would be a very acceptable end result if we miss out on a proper cold spell

In the nearer term and there's plenty of interest away from the far south/south east with snow opportunities for Wales, parts of the Midlands, Northern England and parts of Scotland, albeit for the most part it's transitory away from Scotland and/or high ground in Northern England.

 

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On the positive side the GFSP is trying its best to fly the flag.

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06z Operational goes from the mildest option on 5th to the coldest option on 9th and meanwhile the ENS are still cold for the 7th - the ENS AVG mean is -7.4c and hasn't changed for the 7th February. I don't care what happens after really. The only difference is that we could only be looking at a few days of cold (6th and 9th).

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It'll be a third reversal in a couple of days.

https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f72&lng=eng&hem=nh

FWIW the short 6z GEFS for London have the highest number of sub -10s this winter. GEFS as a suite (as opposed to GFS as a single run) is sticking to its guns, it seems.

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Global warming has certainly taken its toll on our winter.

The BBC program recently covered lots of the effects. An average global temperature rise of 1c has caused places like Africa to literally bake. This in my view has fueled highs to our south, making the Azors high a winter pest, and also drives mild air up and around any sliding LP's  causing flooding for Southern England instead af drifting.

A classic example of this shown on the 06z op at t180, a mild plume going up the Eastern side of the LP killing off any cold flow. In the past that "plume" probably wouldn't have been there, and we would all be jumping for joy with excitement in here.

Just my thought's, sorry if a bit OT.

Some impressive temperature graideints at the 850 level on the 06z op at t180. IMBY 0c, and parts of Southwest England -9c. That would be a recipe for something you would have thought.

We have had an above average temperature in the strat for a while now after the SSW and a weakened PV, on top of the -NAO/-AO and what appears to be 2 or even 3 SSW's and a 3rd reversal of zonal flow and I am sorry to sound like Moomin but if all we can get is pathetic transient snow (i.e rain to snow/snow to rain and drip drip or even worse more cold rain - tomorrow being another cold rain day) then what are the chances of us having any sustained HLB given the fact we have had all the 'ingredients' for cold blocked weather with snow. 

Sorry Retron - please remind me what FWIW means?

Again in the medium range time frame the 7th February is the day to watch out for. 

Para keeps our hopes alive:

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The parallel also brings mild southerlies in fairly quickly.

Unfortunately we are finally starting to see some model consensus but it’s not the consensus I want to see: a 5 day cold spell before the high gets pushed southwards and eventually retreats S or SE into Europe and letting the jet cross the UK. Looking like 10th to 12th Feb as the end point with 5th to 6th the start point (from a southern perspective; northerners get a couple of bonus days at either end).

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We had a consensus at day 9/10 a day or two ago, for a completely different scenario.

Now the three main operational models that go out to day 10 (ECM, GFS and GEM) show three different scenarios at day 10.

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For what it's worth.

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Just to add I don't think the cold weather/Nor easter in NE States and E Canada is helping at all - it's just blasting up our jet and flattening any GH, SCANDI High or Mid Atlantic ridge. - We saw this after the SSW on 1st January of 2019.

Back to the Models - the positive is that there is a colder cluster of ENS appearing around the 7th February - last night's 18z we had 7 ENS members going down below -10c on 7th February, this morning 00z ENS we had 8 ENS members going down below -10c on 7th February with an ENS Average of -7.2c. The latest 06z ENS has 10 ENS members going down below -10c on 7th February with an ENS average of -7.4c - this includes the GFS Control run.

Bottom like is that it will still be cold around 7th. But how cold and for how long is to be seen:

 

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Far from nailed on though, with all that scatter even in the mid term.

Highlights again the massive temperature differences between air to the North & South. A slight change in synoptics can give a huge difference at the 850 hpa level at the moment. With that I mind I guess the mean is not really worth looking at, as its just a mathematical average of temperature.

Thanks   -I thought it was some model or something he was referring to. 

And fair point Hobensotwa

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It's seems like it's around the 4th Feb that Murray Walker comes out of retirement (love that one).

I'll be on board when Murray Walker goes, and solid cluster at -8 to -10 shows its hand. Failing that its Kenneth Wolstenholme territory.

I don’t suppose this helps? 

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GEFS 6Z shows the roller coaster returns, but the depths and clusters are retained for a few days in the medium term. I’m still positive for a cold spell next weekend into the week after for a few days at least.

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It would if that was for my location. Looks like solid support for your area. Parts of rural Scotland must look amazing in the snow.  Not to jealous honest!! 😔👍

Apologies for being off-topic but the nearest ski centres to here are looking glorious in the afternoon sunshine currently.

https://www.ski-glenshee.co.uk/Webcam

https://m.webcam-hd.com/ski-scotland/the-lecht 

 

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I can see where you are coming from to a degree, Brian. That said, background warmth and generally higher heights to the south of the UK didn't prevent memorable & long-lasting severe spells in two successive winters only just over a decade ago, plus the cold of early 2013 (March especially) and the Beast from the East right at the end of the 2017/18 winter.

The chances of severe sustained cold have reduced in recent times for sure. Having said that, I think that it is sometimes easy for people to forget that we don't have to go back decades to find the last instance of sustained and severe winter weather in this country, far from it.

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Thanks for sharing Doc! Looks lovely there as does the sun - what a shame we are all in lockdown and can't visit these beauty spots - i bet this is a really good ski season for Scottish ski resorts too.

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Fair point. It's not completely removed the possibility of cold in the far South its just shortened the odds.

For my locale cold spells, such as the ones you have mentioned in your post occur just once possibility twice a decade. Where as back in the day (pre mid 90's) it was probabily every other year.

Indeed I was reading the Current Conditions thread from the BTFE in 2018 yesterday; heavy snow with temperatures of -4C right at the end of Feb!

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Agreed 👍 looks beautiful. Who needs the Alps when the UK has stunning places like that. I will certainly consider that for my next ski trip.

You know I can come to terms with the fact that I don't see much snow down here anymore, because its almost expected. But it would be a sad day if (when) resorts like that fail to get any snow in the winter months. The world needs to wake up and deal with climate change.

Indeed and it's sods law the very year many ski resorts esp Scottish ski resorts get perfect snowy conditions for skiing is the very year no one can go skiing and or visit due to lockdown. Sad really.

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Expectations are always quite high when cold is forecast, this looks like it could be a decent 2/3 days and for those that haven’t seen snow it’s definitely something to look forward to. If it goes wrong then so be it! By next weekend we should know for certain