theweatheroutlook

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Gusty
30 January 2021 16:40:07


 You might get a few flakes from that Steve! 😀


Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Maybe a few Joe 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



doctormog
30 January 2021 16:43:43


 


Maybe a few Joe 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Confident? 


This is the GEM day 10 chart (following a pretty wintry spell before that) https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_240_1.png 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
hobensotwo
30 January 2021 16:46:09


I'm very happy with the GFS 12z. Although its into FI it is very nice to see -10's reaching the SE at 180 rather than 240.



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


That's a bit more like it.. Game on!!

nsrobins
30 January 2021 16:53:51


 


Confident? 


This is the GEM day 10 chart (following a pretty wintry spell before that) https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_240_1.png 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Make no mistake - GEM (apart from one wobble) has been very persistent.


It brings heavy and widespread snow in over the weekend. 
Will ECM spoil the love in? 😎

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Tim A
30 January 2021 16:54:45
I really hope the SE corner , and other lowland eastern and far southern parts get in on the action so that in years to come we can all agree this winter has been better than most!
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Whether Idle
30 January 2021 16:57:03
I don’t believe these charts. Period.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Polar Low
30 January 2021 16:57:43

Severe penetrating frost  wind chill approx -10


Wrong type of cold and snow for BR for sure


 


 


quote=Gusty;1309815]


 


Maybe a few Joe 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


doctormog
30 January 2021 17:02:40

Are people enjoying the rollercoaster ride? It will be interesting how mild the further reaches of the 12z GFS op get based on the last couple of runs.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


I guess that answers that question 


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_360_1.png 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
30 January 2021 17:08:38
Quite a mega easterly a few hundred miles north of the UK in the latter stages of the GFS. Eastern Iceland would feel pretty brisk.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
hobensotwo
30 January 2021 17:10:30


I'm very happy with the GFS 12z. Although its into FI it is very nice to see -10's reaching the SE at 180 rather than 240.



Originally Posted by: Gusty 


As good as that chart is for uk cold. Note the hot plume coming up from North Africa, up into the med, and Southern Europe. Signs of things to come in spring and summer possibly??


I agree with what Brian is saying. 30 years ago this winter probably would have been up there with some of the best. Even in this modern climate 20/21 has bucked the trend to some degree.

Rob K
30 January 2021 17:16:09


 


As good as that chart is for uk cold. Note the hot plume coming up from North Africa, up into the med, and Southern Europe. Signs of things to come in spring and summer possibly??


I agree with what Brian is saying. 30 years ago this winter probably would have been up there with some of the best. Even in this modern climate 20/21 has bucked the trend to some degree.


Originally Posted by: hobensotwo 


To some extent I would have thought this tropical air entering the mix could increase the snowfall amounts as it will be transporting lots of moisture up to northern latitudes. Where it hits the cold air it has to be a recipe for heavy snowfall. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
30 January 2021 17:19:49
The short stage (pre 192hr) -10°C t850hPa count here on the 12z GFS ensemble set was a noteworthy 28.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
JRobinson
30 January 2021 17:26:15

The GEM is also living up to its name for some on its op run this evening,

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Very much so...



BANK!!


Meanwhile on the GFS the op seems pretty good for cold, better than the 6z.


However an early glance at the ENS shows wide fluctuations at 192hrs. GEFS members will be throwing a great deal of doubt into the mix, and have me concerned more now than in the previous few days 

glenogle
30 January 2021 17:29:33


 


As good as that chart is for uk cold. Note the hot plume coming up from North Africa, up into the med, and Southern Europe. Signs of things to come in spring and summer possibly??


I agree with what Brian is saying. 30 years ago this winter probably would have been up there with some of the best. Even in this modern climate 20/21 has bucked the trend to some degree.


Originally Posted by: hobensotwo 


Surely the increased gradients just improve the chances of a severe/memorable weather event somewhere where they meet?

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
glenogle
30 January 2021 17:30:36

I really hope the SE corner , and other lowland eastern and far southern parts get in on the action so that in years to come we can all agree this winter has been better than most!

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Don't forget lowland scotland, we are still waiting too

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Retron
30 January 2021 17:32:00

Worthy of mention - GFS actually conjures up a blizzard here next weekend. It won't happen, but it's the first time in many a year I've seen one forecast. Image from xcweather.


Leysdown, north Kent
hobensotwo
30 January 2021 17:33:39


 


To some extent I would have thought this tropical air entering the mix could increase the snowfall amounts as it will be transporting lots of moisture up to northern latitudes. Where it hits the cold air it has to be a recipe for heavy snowfall. 


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I agree. All the factors have aligned perfectly in that chart to mean that the UK gets the dumping it deserves.


It's a fine line to tread though.


Are there examples of charts from "back in the day" that show warm plumes like that in early Feb?

fairweather
30 January 2021 17:36:15

I really hope the SE corner , and other lowland eastern and far southern parts get in on the action so that in years to come we can all agree this winter has been better than most!

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Yes I can understand that. You must be sick of us moaning 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Snow Hoper
30 January 2021 17:42:26
Size of that high on the GFS Para at 228hrs👀
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
Gandalf The White
30 January 2021 17:49:25

The short stage (pre 192hr) -10°C t850hPa count here on the 12z GFS ensemble set was a noteworthy 28.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


If the sea freezes off the coast of Aberdeen does that reduce your chances of just getting more cold rain and drizzle?



 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
30 January 2021 17:50:48


 


If the sea freezes off the coast of Aberdeen does that reduce your chances of just getting more cold rain and drizzle?



 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


We’d probably get freezing rain. 



I wonder if the ECM will be tonight’s party pooper.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 January 2021 17:55:59
Just dropping in this evening as although I’m more a heatwave person than a snow fan I do enjoy a good beast.

Looking reasonably positive I think. Let’s see what the Euro says. Will it let us have the snow we ordered or ban snow exports and demand we make best reasonable efforts to send it South into the continent while we get some cool dry high pressure?
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gandalf The White
30 January 2021 18:02:31


 


We’d probably get freezing rain. 



I wonder if the ECM will be tonight’s party pooper.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


A quick look on Weather.us shows the cold working SW but the high slides SE into Europe by Day 10 on the Op.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Arbroath 1320
30 January 2021 18:06:09


 


Very much so...



BANK!!


Meanwhile on the GFS the op seems pretty good for cold, better than the 6z.


However an early glance at the ENS shows wide fluctuations at 192hrs. GEFS members will be throwing a great deal of doubt into the mix, and have me concerned more now than in the previous few days 


Originally Posted by: JRobinson 


Spot on. Great set of 12zs so far. The only fly in the ointment is the 12z GEFS. They are all over the  place mid-run with only a small minority showing an Easterly. On the plus side the Op, control and para are fine.

GGTTH
Gary L
30 January 2021 18:07:16


 


A quick look on Weather.us shows the cold working SW but the high slides SE into Europe by Day 10 on the Op.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


It's not out yet is it?

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