Actually you're correct    I selected the 'latest run' but they use the CST time zone and I didn't notice it was still the 00z.

It is coming out on Weather.us and Meteociel now.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2021013012/europe/sea-level-pressure/20210130-1200z.html

After its major wobble 2 or 3 runs ago it is definitely edging back towards the easterly/more blocked scenario. If that trend continues it will be encouraging. If.

Can't get that enthusiastic now about the ensemble mean. Briefly gets down to -7C. Not quite as bad as it looks as during that period the long term means drops to -2C so although close to that it is actually still -4C.

Not unusual to see patterns like this reoccur, presumably the places that have received good falls from sliding fronts will continue to do so for the remainder of the Winter - Central areas up into Southern Scotland seem a good bet. Unless we get a decent Easterly fetch of course, although these often result in cool South Easterlies and an eventual half-heated retrogression to Greenland (toppler).

Having said that, GEM 12z is an absolute banger

Experience tells us this ain't happening if just one of the models is not on board.  

Indeed hard to bet against the ECM.  Tbh if it isn't going to snow can we have some extreme early warmth.

Very true Gusty. Perhaps the saving grace this time is that ECM is all over the place, so may be unreliable at present. 

I sort of get what you mean and I know you're talking about the mean but I'd settle for the 40+ hours of snowfall for MBY followed by very cold surface air that the Op brings, which has a reasonable level of support amongst the ens too (certainly the period of cold uppers and precip).

Of some interest too is the noticeable amount of colder members right to the end of the run compared with the last 3-4 runs - just one ens set of course but if that trend continues and strengthens we might end up in a cold spell rather than a blip down here. 

ECM is interesting if somewhat alone in how it evolves things - I suspect if I lived in the Northern half of the country I'd stick the op run in the good pile though and it also looks good for continued cold for parts of the UK (not here sadly) post T240 too. 

IMO ECM needs to be looked at in the context of what the ENS show and it's inconsistency. Doesn't mean it's wrong but it'll need to pick a not nationwide cold evolution and stick to it before I view it as more than a potential spoiler rather than a definite one, assuming the other models stick to their guns. When you look at it's evolution in the critical T120/T144 range it's essentially by itself in how it develops the troughing. Also worth remembering that it moved from a poorer evolution in the last cold blip/spell too. A slight tweak to it's next op run and it'll show more widespread cold. ECM also took until very close to the onset of the last colder spell to reduce the uppers for down here, so it's not infallible.

All in all positive signs this evening for me particularly when you class ECM as a poor run, when in any other winter recently people would be drooling over the potential and the setup.

Indeed. IMO, we are still a long way off the position to need to reach to come to a firm conclusion one way or another, i.e run-to-run consistency and cross-model agreement.

Yea, the GEFS ensembles turn this into a brief snap, as apose to an extended snap or spell. Which I will accept if it happens, as its better than nothing.

Plenty of time for things to change, but it's not ideal.

Yes since the 00Z this morning which had hardly any mild members from Feb 6th to 10th it has been a steady decline in excitement from the 6Z to now the 12Z. The uncertainty is growing and we know what that usually means - once a mild cluster starts to appear then it grows and becomes dominant over the space of three or four runs. By tomorrow's 0Z or 6Z you would expect the cold cluster to have vanished and we will be stuck with the mild cluster which make it a one-day wonder for the south.

Yep - clustersnap incoming. Imagine my surprise

..we don't need a calendar, we just need to look towards the central Med plume to tell us the clock is ticking and that Spring is starting the re-emerge to our south. 

I would so dearly love for us to get a swipe from the beast next weekend while we are still just about in the core of winter.

ECM right at the top of the ensembles this evening at day 6, so just wrong I suspect. The colder weather will arrive as per others is my best guess. The run stays warmer to the end, so a lot more colder options 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021013012,0,2021013012&epsgram=classical_10d&lat=53.2&lon=-2.91667&station_name=Chester,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=12

Martin

The second week of February is IMHO the top ticket, the optimum week of winter. The best combination of thermal lag and low insolation.  Im with you insofar as Id also quite like a visitation from The Beast, but feel this one is less than likely to materialise as per the Nirvana depicted by the GEM 12z, for example.  The rule with easterlies is "what can go wrong almost always does go wrong".

If the ecm 12z op has good agreement with its own ens members then I will agree with that comment, because the 12z gfs op was on the colder side of its peers at the crunch period.