Can't get that enthusiastic now about the ensemble mean. Briefly gets down to -7C. Not quite as bad as it looks as during that period the long term means drops to -2C so although close to that it is actually still -4C.
Originally Posted by: fairweather
I sort of get what you mean and I know you're talking about the mean but I'd settle for the 40+ hours of snowfall for MBY followed by very cold surface air that the Op brings, which has a reasonable level of support amongst the ens too (certainly the period of cold uppers and precip).
Of some interest too is the noticeable amount of colder members right to the end of the run compared with the last 3-4 runs - just one ens set of course but if that trend continues and strengthens we might end up in a cold spell rather than a blip down here.
ECM is interesting if somewhat alone in how it evolves things - I suspect if I lived in the Northern half of the country I'd stick the op run in the good pile though and it also looks good for continued cold for parts of the UK (not here sadly
) post T240 too.
IMO ECM needs to be looked at in the context of what the ENS show and it's inconsistency. Doesn't mean it's wrong but it'll need to pick a not nationwide cold evolution and stick to it before I view it as more than a potential spoiler rather than a definite one, assuming the other models stick to their guns. When you look at it's evolution in the critical T120/T144 range it's essentially by itself in how it develops the troughing. Also worth remembering that it moved from a poorer evolution in the last cold blip/spell too. A slight tweak to it's next op run and it'll show more widespread cold. ECM also took until very close to the onset of the last colder spell to reduce the uppers for down here, so it's not infallible.
All in all positive signs this evening for me particularly when you class ECM as a poor run, when in any other winter recently people would be drooling over the potential and the setup.
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