GEFS still giving loads of optimism for a decent cold spell in a week or so’s time, and for quite a few days so the cold digs in.

I’m wondering if the ECM operational is a changeable outlier as the ECM ENS shows higher pressure to our north and east towards the end of its run, and stalling depressions further out in the Atlantic. 

 

I’m feeling more optimistic that we’re approaching a decent cold spell, hoping for more agreement in the models on its length as they become closer to the magical  T120 timeframe.

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ECM op did this also on the 00z this morning also. Very odd but cannot be totally dismissed as it’s often the leader of the pack with easterlies.

Ive always trusted the Chinese model.  reliable, steadfast, respected...

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=0

 

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ECM average at 168 and 192 are game on with decent average temps 👍

Martin

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Yesterday 00z ECM or day before showed a strong easterly and uppers of -10 to -12c covering the UK. 

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Comes back to the comment I made earlier re climate change and the warm African plume.

Really its nowhere near spring (early Feb) but yet we see signs of heat already building from the South.

ECM AVG @192 looks easterly:

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GEFS keep climbing after a 4 day cold plunge...still not buying a long term cold spell on this and subsequent runs...

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Yes the operational run (00z) yesterday showed that, the ensembles did not. In fact here is the ensemble mean for that time point from that run and the second chart is from today’s 12z suite (as close to the same time point as possible using these charts)

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I really should use less words to say stuff

A much more succinct way of saying what I was thinking

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Better  ECM mean this evening .  Easterly is back

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=314&y=141&run=12&type=0&runpara=0

 

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This is far more important than looking at the operational for sure. The GEFS actually shows a relatively short cold spell, but good to see ECM Ensembles trending downwards again.

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I will always pay attention to the operational in these types of situations. Time and time again a rogue operational becomes the reality. Having looked at that ECM operational I have to be honest and say that 'it feels right' and would certainly be in keeping with the winter pattern so far.

Eg. Cold and wintryish in the north throughout, a southerly tracking low bringing transitional snow from the Midlands northwards, a cold NW'ly in its wake with some frosts followed by more Atlantic fronts bringing rain with further sleet and snow across the east and north.

I would love to be proved wrong with this but I reckon something is distinctly off here and the ECM op is on the money.

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I think gfs has a very good set seem to be in rock agreement around the 6th maybe -10 London 

some go on for even colder conditions some don’t the key for me is no massive flip for the set

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0

Having said that and looking at the spreads I don’t think we can honestly say beyond 126 if you look in the panel

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=11&ech=126

 

It's definitely been one of those winters. I can't really recall a single period since December when we have seen cross model support for anything past around 72 hours, be that mild or cold. Sometimes I do wonder whether we are any further forward technology wise than we were 10-15 years ago when it comes to model watching. Upgrade after upgrade of the models, but they are still all as fallible as they ever were. 

I guess this just goes to show how chaotic the weather is, particularly in our part of the world.

It's an important point to note that given our position on the globe, there are so many variables than can spoil what appears a nailed-on scenario.

The simple fact is, because of our position, you can never reliably forecast more than 3 or 4 days ahead as we are not a continental climate.

That is why, I think, LRFs are more reliable in North America and across mainland Europe, because they are continental climates, where we are a chaotic maritime climate with a huge body of warm water to our west.

Perhaps the model upgrades will NEVER get to grips with the UK climate and we just have to accept, what will be will be in our small neck of the woods.

And yes, all of what I have said above probably puts into perspective my rants about long range prospects. The truth is, I just don't know, but the status quo is largely unsettled, westerly, zonal muck, with the occasional flirt with continental or polar maritime cold.

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Bring back Martin he loves means.

 

I was very close to throwing in the towel after the ECM, but I spoke to my mate and I climbed down from that. He wasn’t buying the ECM solution. He is being unusually bullish, and its him who usually has to tell me to stop being too bullish.

That being said. I’m on the edge, we’ve been here so many times before. I don’t like the GFS ensembles either, so much scatter again.

I wonder if the upstream pattern in the USA is causing issues. Their due a significant cold plunge, in fact yet another one of their pillar vortex specials. It beggars belief how lucky they are recently.

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Very little difference..?

If there wasn't going to be an easterly then other models would keep showing it and surely the Met would have removed it by now and the BBC forecast (which i do criticize) wouldn't have mentioned it several times.

I wonder when the ECM Op will wake up to 'reality?' 

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If ever a reminder was needed of the benefits of using the ensemble mean charts v the Op this is a perfect example.

👍

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I guess only if and when an easterly is the likely evolution.   As the models simply take the opening position and run a series of calculations there is no bias - and especially given that 'folk lore' has it that ECM tends to overdo easterlies.

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I’m getting more sense out of Deadpool 2 than some of the posts in here tonight 😎
I’ll get my coat - going to need it soon.

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Amended 

Are you saying they don't just put in the odd mild run in to wind up certain people on here 

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😂😷😷

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S.E' ners are going to love the 18z op at T+180 

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