GFS 18z very good for SE and very similar to the 12z.

I do worry with sinking nature of the high, but the pressure patterns do look bizzare 190+. Like it rinds out of ideas after the initially easterly.

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Not good from a snow POV: absolutely zero settling snow anywhere in the SE. 

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What i really need to know is....has the guy got his winter tyres on yet?? (Can't remember which member it was but sure he was connected to a climate or observation aircraft).

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..... but it doesn't really last and snow amounts are falling.

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Yes, the high seems to collapse and eventually disappear to a nothingness without any assistance from oncoming LP systems. Looks iffy. Data missing?

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I’m not sure if you’re using the precipitation charts for that conclusion but they are next to useless at modelling convective snow in the medium-long range. We forget this sometimes. 

You’re better off using the pressure charts and 850’s. 

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Good trends continue for the medium trend...
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49069 

Pointless looking any further than a week. Even 5 days.

It’s been a steady decline from the high water mark of the 00z runs. I think we all know the writing is on the wall now. It’s not happening this time. The Met updating their long range forecast was the final nail in the coffin. 

At least we got a decent day of snow last Sunday in this part of the south but I know many others weren’t so lucky. For whatever reason despite the promising charts the atmosphere just isn’t playing ball this year.

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Starting to look like another bake in the south to me. Things took a turn for the worse after the ELRF.

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You’re a bit keen to write this off Rob - IMO

GFSP still flying the flag.

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There's some baffling comments on here today. Is a cold snap in the south nailed on? Nope. Is it a strong possibility based on all available output? Yep. (By which I mean successive GFS ops and ens, GEM ops, ECM ens etc). Now it could go wrong and and all but even if it does it's extremely unlikely to go from a cold pattern to very mild. What's much more likely is it's chilly but not cold for the far south and colder elsewhere with some snow for some. At the moment and based on what all output is showing that's a reasonable possibility but not currently the favoured one IMO.

Here's the chart for just over 7 days away. It's cold and ignoring the precip charts there's a high possibility of snow around for the east coast.

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P07 please, for my birthday:

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP07EU18_246_2.png

Pretty please

18z GFS ensembles 850 hPa (London) are actually quite encouraging. Around the start the op is on the mild side (5th-7th Feb) and thereafter in its colder phase has strong support from a distinct cluster of Perts which look likely to pull the mean down from its current minimum of -6.9C. Although there indications it will be a 4 day affair there appears to be mild and a cold split from about the 11th.

Conclusion - all is not lost!

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Surprised there's not been more mention of GFS 18z para tonight. Cold easterly/NE winds over most of the UK from 120z right through to 384z.

More than likely it won't verify but shows what's possible.

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Even by the standards of the 18z FI was just extraordinary.  A large swathe of the country under 10-20cm of snow and still no end to the blocking and cold pattern.

Enjoy whilst it's there because it won't be like that in the morning....

 

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Parallel has been the most consistent as has the GEM(in terms of not backing away from easterly!)  - are you suggesting both could flip mild in the 00z?

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No, I’m just suggesting it’s unlikely to be as cold and snowy. 

But after years of model watching, and with the edge of reliability being 4-5 days, I’m past getting too carried away by eye candy over a week away.

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Fair point. I guess because this winter the models have been unreliable full stop and I recall that the slack easterly we had back in early January wasn't even forecast properly. Furthermore since the first SSW all we have seen are models flip flopping and as doc said that the only consistency is inconsistency - esp the ECM.

The Met Office have yet to forecast anything mild or milder - also the BBC outlook mentions cold weather easterly winds even through to the latter part of February.

Keeping fingers crossed. One thing for sure (if we can't get the snow/[proper cold) I would much rather frost and dry. Because we only seem to get transient snow of late i.e rain to snow and or snow to rain and drip drip not pure snow and lasting for more than a day.

The good news is that it's only January (just) but time is ticking.  

Out of curiosity in your opinion which model would you say is the most reliable? because I heard rumors many say the ECM- maybe because it only goes up to day 10, (240hrs). But the ECM has been the one that is flip flopping more...! 

BTW did the snow in south cambridge settle or was it more Transient sleety stuff?

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This morning's 0z GFS shows a snowy (and windy) end to next weekend for a large swathe of the SE... a perfect illustration of the potential if you're on the boundary between that deep cold and the milder stuff to the south. No, it almost certainly won't happen, but it shows why the MetO long-ranger is the way it is. The potential is there for somewhere in the UK (if not northern France!) to get a proper dumping of snow.

This is the snow depth chart for the Tuesday afterwards - a couple of days of snowfall by that point.

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Nice to see the colder trend continue this morning (with a serios amount of snow for higher inland parts up here midweek). The short range -10°C ensemble count here has now hit 30 and the mean has now dropped to -10.3°C. Very impressive for a t850hPa mean at 7 days out!

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I would be astonished if you don't see snow out of this.

-10C should be enough to overcome the heating effects of the North Sea, especially given wind to thoroughly mix out the warmed lower layer.

(Indeed, with SSTs around 7C where you are, that's a 17 degree difference... in theory at least, that should be plenty enough.)

 

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An eye-opening control run on the GEFS this morning - an easterly, followed by a low which brings snow across the UK, then a renewed easterly, followed by a 1050hPa high over the UK. If you want to break the UK cold record, that's the way to do it!

See it in all its glory here:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=144&code=0&mode=0&carte= 

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I hope so, and this time the model do support it possibly until the ECM comes out). I will be seriously grumpy if this now turns into va marginal rain fest.  Given the air source I think it looks decent enough. 

On a different note the GFSP 00z looks generally chilly with this being the picture at the end of the run without any big warmup before then  http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2021013100/gfsnh-0-384.png?0 

It is not deeply cold for its entirety but it is generally cold with no clear breakdown.

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It does worry me that the 850s are a mess. We seem to have lost that feed of -10 850s that were showing yesterday. 

After that is a complete mess. 

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Really disappointed with the GFS this morning. Yes, snow is being shown for the SE, but it’s over a week away, and the chart that shows it doesnt have the deep cold.

After the last easterly that delivered incessant cold rain, I won’t hold my breath.

It’s all abit meh. I suspect it will be the moaning thread that will be most busy this morning for those of us in the south.

I just can’t get excited about snow charts seven days away. We are reaching the point in the south at least where the we really need spectacular charts in the south to deliver to counter the effects of solar heating. 

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