Control is looking a bit better so far

So, the 6z is now out in FI and we've retained the overall pattern. Lots of blocking, an Atlantic with lows pinging off the Arctic high like pinballs pinging off a bumper, the UK in the firing range and a dumping of snow likely somewhere - in this case, Scotland, but with widespread lesser amounts of snow across much of the UK.

Let's see what the ensembles come up with!

A move to the ECM position by the 06z with regards to the position of the Low, key moment is here -

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2021013106/gfs-0-144.png?6?6

The ridging from the North is just strong enough to prevent the phasing of the Atlantic Low and 'our' Low, it's very close to producing what the ECM went onto show, uncomfortably so and for me it's not worth looking at how cold it gets or how long any easterly lasts for because that day 6 is the all or nothing moment.

By a whisker.

I’d be a little more reassured if the 06z GFS t850hPa mean was still down below -8°C here on Friday.

Agreed until the solution for next weekend is nailed on, its pretty pointless looking beyond.

It is.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=120&code=31&mode=1&carte=

That'll make a nice change 

Aviemore currently has 10cm snow cover which it has had for weeks bar the odd day and got to -10c last night with only better to come. What a cold spell up there. 

The GFS 6z op suggests to me that the derailment is well underway.

Talking of Friday, here's the op and the mean for 120 from GFS and GEFS 6z. Spot the difference!

(The answer, of course, is that little low gets smoothed out in the mean - as its position is still far from certain. The overall pattern remains solid, as it has done for days now.)

As I said a few pages back, I do sometimes wonder whether we are any further forward from a models perspective than we were 10-15 years ago. They all continue to flip around as they always did back in the early days.

These upgrades to the models never seem to cut the mustard for us.

I still remain positive though that we will see at least a brief wintry spell in February or March.

Definite slap in the face for those that dismissed the ECM OP run. It's all FI at the moment so doesn't really matter. 

I'm sure the ECM ensembles themselves flopped milder a few days ago (posted in here by someone) then the same person posted the link to them flipping colder again. 

Wait for the 06z ens to see what they think.....

The 00z ensembles were among the best to date with the mean being at -7C for the longest spell and coming in sooner on  the 5th giving at least a 5 day cold spell. The 06z op is awful in comparison but it is swinging cold/mild with each run. Hopefully the ensembles coming out now will show it to be on the mild side. It looks nailed on that it is going to be sensational for Scotland with mild air never reaching there even in the next few days. I predict a foot of snow for Aberdeen 

But OPs are going to be far better at handling little features like this than ensemble members.

At day ten the t850s here are only 18°C lower than at the same time point on the ECM run. 

I've been here long enough to understand the importance of taking into consideration the ensembles but since when did we start dismissing what the operational run's are telling us...asking for a friend ? 

Not always. That extra detail means nothing if a low blows up in the wrong location...

As I've said before, the important thing is the overall pattern and the ensembles are the best guide for that. While it's not impossible for an entire suite to flip - we have, of course, seen that before - more often than not they don't. I also don't think ANY of the models currently are showing where that low will be at 120.

For an example, here's the T+120 chart from five days ago, the 6z GFS. And on the right, the T+6 chart from today's 0z. Nothing more needs to be said regarding taking a 5-day chart from one op run as gospel, I hope!

I’m not dismissing the 06z op run, but I do think it is unlikely to that extreme. 

Since 1998 or so, when I first got into this hobby?

(Ensembles. It's what they're for. If the op isn't well supported, as per the 0z ECM in this case, then you note that fact.)

Moaners and doomsters, this is for you. Look, it's all gone off the rails and it's not going to happen!

For everyone else, the 6z GEFS paints a chilly old picture. Every other member has easterlies or NE'lies over the UK at that time and many of them have near gale force winds at that. One thing's for sure - at the moment, things are still looking good for a cold snap, if not spell, in a week's time.

The London mean is colder than on the 0z suite and this 168 mean chart is drool-worthy for snow fans down here at least.

(That comes with a -8C 850 mean, and note the mean trough over the North Sea. That's about as good as you'll see at this range!)

Control run is a thing of beauty 🙂

p 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 also look ok stopped at 9

I've been here long enough to know the answer to that - when they don't show what we want !