Almost all posts are IMBY, Nick as you've just proved ! It's only natural as we know our own region best. Anyway when was the last time Durham went three years without a flake of snow? 

No, when they are entirely unsupported by all other evidence would be a better answer.

I fully understand why, given past experiences, it is sensible not to dismiss a milder option. It’s more justifiable to somewhat dismiss an unsupported option.

I would love the 06z GFS op run to come to fruition. That doesn’t make me think it is more likely.

And as basing comments on one op run (and ignoring the ensembles) is in fashion, have a look at the GFS(P), which is in effect an op run too. It shows the UK bathed in -8s by 168, with -10s soon to follow, plus that North Sea trough as shown in the ensemble mean.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1

GFS ens colder too 👍

Mean down to -9 😱👏

Op is at the mild end (phew). Mean down to -8.9C on the 7th. That's what I like - scope for some deterioration and still be good !

Furthermore the main cold cluster is below the mean at that point which is pushed up by the large blip in the op at that point and spurious others. If pattern remains unchanged we could see a -10C in the mean in the coming days.

Atlantic lows have deviated a great deal from the recent decadal normality in 'dragging their warm sectors NE'wards across the UK' and interestingly for me, from a climate point of view, into the Arctic Basin and as Brian noted last year? - allowing firm blocks to develop.

And that is what I just don't get , if the OP has little or no support from the rest why on earth would anyone say , the OP's have a better handle on it ? 

yes, the ensemble for Aberdeen show how far out the 06z gfs run was this morning. Just unbelievable or  trend setter but we will know in due course. Some very odd runs in the ops so frustrating indeed 

Martin

Can you tell me why ? ...........genuine question 

Higher resolution I would guess. However normally they would see some support.

Ever seen photos of the 1908 dump in this NE corner? Well, if memory serves correctly it came about off a similar set-up as shown 8-9 days out on the op run. As you say unlikely to come off given the uncertainty of where exactly the cold air is going to settle, but food for thought.

https://twitter.com/74frankfurt/status/968858869702250496/photo/1 

http://www.silvercityvault.org.uk/index.php?a=ZoomItem&i=97082&WINID=1612092850743 

Believe it or not, my intention was to write "here" - that was a genuine typo: I was being unashamedly IMBY!

How big is the difference between the Control and OP?

we can but dream! Or just head to Gartly moor!

I’m not sure of the exact difference in resolution but I know there is one (others will probably know). I believe the starting input data are the same.

Maybe, but in fact that LP isn't 'a little feature' is it? It's the remnants of the complex LP that is forming now and drifts into the British Isles later in the week. Therefore the ensemble mean is indeed a better represention of the likely placement of the centre.

I haven't had time to go through all posts but I don't get why the ECM 00z operational isn't going for anything cold -I mean zero cold - maybe one cooler day but how come? Seems to go very mild by 240z with exceptionally warm southerly's? 

ECM @ 240z@ - Long fetch southerly and uppers of +8c

GEM@ 240z: Long fetch northerly with uppers down to -10c

The GFS  / GEFS resolution has been discussed many times before.  

The current GEFS is running with the same FV3 core as the latest GFS. IME it is now an excellent model and comparable to ECM ENS. 

With the inclusion of the FV3 dynamical core, GEFS resolution has increased from approximately 33km to 25km, and the number of individual forecasts input into the ensemble has increased from 21 to 31. These changes will allow models to run at a higher resolution of detail and provide better accuracy. Additional upgrades include extending the forecast length from 16 to 35 days, along with improvements to the physics. GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by varying the known inputs to multiple forecasts, thereby generating a range of possible outcomes.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-global-ensemble-forecast-system

Edit: Also I'm not sure why so many people use the CFS for the month ahead when GEFS35 is now available. The latter has been performing VERY well this winter and has been offering a high degree of consistency.