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fairweather
31 January 2021 11:00:53

Derailment, what derailment? 😃 OK... slight IMBY post there! 55cm of lying snow at 240 here, more higher up.

Originally Posted by: NickR 


Almost all posts are IMBY, Nick as you've just proved ! It's only natural as we know our own region best. Anyway when was the last time Durham went three years without a flake of snow? 

S.Essex, 42m ASL
doctormog
31 January 2021 11:01:24


 


I've been here long enough to know the answer to that - when they don't show what we want !


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


No, when they are entirely unsupported by all other evidence would be a better answer.


I fully understand why, given past experiences, it is sensible not to dismiss a milder option. It’s more justifiable to somewhat dismiss an unsupported option.


I would love the 06z GFS op run to come to fruition. That doesn’t make me think it is more likely.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
31 January 2021 11:01:43

And as basing comments on one op run (and ignoring the ensembles) is in fashion, have a look at the GFS(P), which is in effect an op run too. It shows the UK bathed in -8s by 168, with -10s soon to follow, plus that North Sea trough as shown in the ensemble mean.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1


 

Leysdown, north Kent
Whiteout
31 January 2021 11:03:50

GFS ens colder too 👍

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Whiteout
31 January 2021 11:05:07

Mean down to -9 😱👏

Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Brian Gaze
31 January 2021 11:05:28
Ops will generally be marginally better but not much better. The ENS are usually just a release or two behind. It would be like saying the next release of GFS will be a big improvement. It won't, the change is incremental. In fact I'm beginning to wonder if the next breakthrough will come from Google with machine learning.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Snow Hoper
31 January 2021 11:09:32
The GFS 168hr mean chart is very similar to the Para at the same timeframe.
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
fairweather
31 January 2021 11:13:33

Op is at the mild end (phew). Mean down to -8.9C on the 7th. That's what I like - scope for some deterioration and still be good !

S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
31 January 2021 11:17:34


Op is at the mild end (phew). Mean down to -8.9C on the 7th. That's what I like - scope for some deterioration and still be good !


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Furthermore the main cold cluster is below the mean at that point which is pushed up by the large blip in the op at that point and spurious others. If pattern remains unchanged we could see a -10C in the mean in the coming days.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
polarwind
31 January 2021 11:17:55


 


Not just inland, you get a dumping before it turns back to rain.


And to answer the question in my earlier post, in this run at least the Svalbard high migrates SW'wards... which is what you'd expect, given what's happening in the higher layers of our atmosphere. It also provides a firm block against Atlantic lows going where they normally would (NE'wards, dragging their warm sectors across the UK).


 


I think it was late 96, just before the easterly of Jan 97.


Originally Posted by: Retron 

Over the last many weeks there's been nothing normal about the synoptics, - firm block or not.


Atlantic lows have deviated a great deal from the recent decadal normality in 'dragging their warm sectors NE'wards across the UK' and interestingly for me, from a climate point of view, into the Arctic Basin and as Brian noted last year? - allowing firm blocks to develop.

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Dave,Derby
Gooner
31 January 2021 11:18:15


 


Since 1998 or so, when I first got into this hobby?


(Ensembles. It's what they're for. If the op isn't well supported, as per the 0z ECM in this case, then you note that fact.)


Originally Posted by: Retron 


And that is what I just don't get , if the OP has little or no support from the rest why on earth would anyone say , the OP's have a better handle on it ? 


 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


marting
31 January 2021 11:19:10


And as basing comments on one op run (and ignoring the ensembles) is in fashion, have a look at the GFS(P), which is in effect an op run too. It shows the UK bathed in -8s by 168, with -10s soon to follow, plus that North Sea trough as shown in the ensemble mean.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=168&code=0&mode=1&runpara=1


 


Originally Posted by: Retron 


yes, the ensemble for Aberdeen show how far out the 06z gfs run was this morning. Just unbelievable or  trend setter but we will know in due course. Some very odd runs in the ops so frustrating indeed 


Martin

Martin
Greasby, Wirral.
Gooner
31 January 2021 11:19:16


 


But OPs are going to be far better at handling little features like this than ensemble members.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Can you tell me why ? ...........genuine question 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


hobensotwo
31 January 2021 11:19:59
What's the betting, for the gfs & ecm 12z op's to go the cold route, just as the ens flip milder!!

All that compute & AI, and the weather for a week off is still pretty much best guess, unless it's a flat zonal pattern.

It's a good job I don't take it too seriously otherwise I would loose my sanity.
doctormog
31 January 2021 11:22:26


 


Can you tell me why ? ...........genuine question 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Higher resolution I would guess. However normally they would see some support.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
nsrobins
31 January 2021 11:26:59
FWIW I also use sigma or SD on the ensembles to see where the greatest deviations are. If interest at 204hrs the greatest spread is on the strength and position of high pressure in the Atlantic, with much tighter agreement on the AH and euro low.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
bowser
31 January 2021 11:32:43


 


No, when they are entirely unsupported by all other evidence would be a better answer.


I fully understand why, given past experiences, it is sensible not to dismiss a milder option. It’s more justifiable to somewhat dismiss an unsupported option.


I would love the 06z GFS op run to come to fruition. That doesn’t make me think it is more likely.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Ever seen photos of the 1908 dump in this NE corner? Well, if memory serves correctly it came about off a similar set-up as shown 8-9 days out on the op run. As you say unlikely to come off given the uncertainty of where exactly the cold air is going to settle, but food for thought.

doctormog
31 January 2021 11:36:32


 


Ever seen photos of the 1908 dump in this NE corner? Well, if memory serves correctly it came about off a similar set-up as shown 8-9 days out on the op run. As you say unlikely to come off given the uncertainty of where exactly the cold air is going to settle, but food for thought.


Originally Posted by: bowser 


https://twitter.com/74frankfurt/status/968858869702250496/photo/1 


http://www.silvercityvault.org.uk/index.php?a=ZoomItem&i=97082&WINID=1612092850743 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
NickR
31 January 2021 11:36:51


 


Almost all posts are IMBY, Nick as you've just proved ! It's only natural as we know our own region best. Anyway when was the last time Durham went three years without a flake of snow? 


Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Believe it or not, my intention was to write "here" - that was a genuine typo: I was being unashamedly IMBY!

Nick
Durham
[email protected]
Gooner
31 January 2021 11:37:51


 


Higher resolution I would guess. However normally they would see some support.


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


How big is the difference between the Control and OP?

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


bowser
31 January 2021 11:42:45
doctormog
31 January 2021 11:49:02


 


How big is the difference between the Control and OP?


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


I’m not sure of the exact difference in resolution but I know there is one (others will probably know). I believe the starting input data are the same.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
31 January 2021 11:49:41


 


But OPs are going to be far better at handling little features like this than ensemble members.


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Maybe, but in fact that LP isn't 'a little feature' is it? It's the remnants of the complex LP that is forming now and drifts into the British Isles later in the week. Therefore the ensemble mean is indeed a better represention of the likely placement of the centre.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


tallyho_83
31 January 2021 11:51:03

Always a worry when the ECM doesn't play ball. Even if its ensembles are ok, it still leaves a nagging doubt that its assumed high resolution op is picking up something the members aren't. GEM is good and a model that's been performing well recently. GFS for me, has always been Vyvyan (young ones) of the group. In isolation, the op briefly flirts with cold before jumping back up again. A sign similar to ECM finding something not right? Maybe. The Para has been consistently showing large northern blocks in various places, its supposed to replace the op in the future so you'd consider it to be of a better standard.

With all the information at hand you'd think cold was favoured, but until the creases get ironed out I'm not overly confident. I'm going to continue to read what the pros take on it is and go from there.

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper 


I haven't had time to go through all posts but I don't get why the ECM 00z operational isn't going for anything cold -I mean zero cold - maybe one cooler day but how come? Seems to go very mild by 240z with exceptionally warm southerly's? 


ECM @ 240z@ - Long fetch southerly and uppers of +8c



GEM@ 240z: Long fetch northerly with uppers down to -10c


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Brian Gaze
31 January 2021 11:53:18

The GFS  / GEFS resolution has been discussed many times before.  


The current GEFS is running with the same FV3 core as the latest GFS. IME it is now an excellent model and comparable to ECM ENS. 


With the inclusion of the FV3 dynamical core, GEFS resolution has increased from approximately 33km to 25km, and the number of individual forecasts input into the ensemble has increased from 21 to 31. These changes will allow models to run at a higher resolution of detail and provide better accuracy. Additional upgrades include extending the forecast length from 16 to 35 days, along with improvements to the physics. GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by varying the known inputs to multiple forecasts, thereby generating a range of possible outcomes.


https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-upgrades-global-ensemble-forecast-system


 


Edit: Also I'm not sure why so many people use the CFS for the month ahead when GEFS35 is now available. The latter has been performing VERY well this winter and has been offering a high degree of consistency. 


 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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