theweatheroutlook

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Quantum
08 February 2021 16:55:19

Even the upper quartile of T850s is not terrible. Still cold at the surface.



This is the lower quartile:


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
08 February 2021 17:01:31

Wonder if the friday shortwave could throw a spanner into the mix. Wouldn't expect models to have a good handle on it.



 

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
08 February 2021 17:04:27

Zoomed out ARPEGE.



A baroclinic zone caused by the convergence of relatively warm air originating from the north sea, and frigid air from norway. I wouldn't be at all suprised if this is underdeveloped.

2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Gandalf The White
08 February 2021 17:09:53

There is not a single GEFS member at +168 that remotely resembles the GEM op at the same time. If anything they have consolidated around a standoff and the suggestion of undercutting. But time will tell. Sunday now looks like the first major battleground day if GEFS are right. If UKMO/ICON right it will be a slow drier warm up.

Originally Posted by: squish 


 


Re-UKMO, we're under a significant surge of WAA, triggered by the deep stalling LP in mid-Atlantic.   I wonder whether the UKMO T+168 chart would show that process initiating a renewed Scandi block. As it stands the high pressure is slipping south (yesterday's 12z had the centre over Norway; today it's over Germany).


Certainly as it stands the surge of WAA kills off any prospect of an undercut.

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
08 February 2021 17:16:18
Yes, the breakdown/warmup seems to be delayed with each new run. By 00z on the 16z the GEFS mean t850hPa value is -8.1ºC.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
doctormog
08 February 2021 17:21:14


Zoomed out ARPEGE.



A baroclinic zone caused by the convergence of relatively warm air originating from the north sea, and frigid air from norway. I wouldn't be at all suprised if this is underdeveloped.


Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Interesting...


http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax72s.gif?08-12 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gooner
08 February 2021 17:43:55

Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


Sod off Easterly , give me this any day over cold dry days , we can all move on rather than chase another ghost .....IMBYism of course 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Schnow in Peace
08 February 2021 17:48:22


 


 


Re-UKMO, we're under a significant surge of WAA, triggered by the deep stalling LP in mid-Atlantic.   I wonder whether the UKMO T+168 chart would show that process initiating a renewed Scandi block. As it stands the high pressure is slipping south (yesterday's 12z had the centre over Norway; today it's over Germany).


Certainly as it stands the surge of WAA kills off any prospect of an undercut.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


The angle of the surge on UK certainly looks more favourable for a new block to the East than the GEM at the same time frame(144)Though the orientation and centreing  is not as good as UKMO, GEM still looks like it might snatch victory from the jaws of defeat at this point but goes on to sink and be overridden. Though UKMO has slipped a bit, would hopefully still do the job. 


Following this spell with great interest. Used to live in Essex so getting good updates from there too

Saint Snow
08 February 2021 18:06:39


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


Chart image


Sod off Easterly , give me this any day over cold dry days , we can all move on rather than chase another ghost .....IMBYism of course 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Yeah, Monday looks great on GFS...


...Tuesday much less so  


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
08 February 2021 18:28:17

GEM ensembles have flipped to very progressive. This model has done well, so this is a concern


Dont like UKM, looks like slipping south and ECM perhaps the same way

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
08 February 2021 18:29:19

Atlantic winning, cold air gone, hard to say where we go from here


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
08 February 2021 18:36:48


Atlantic winning, cold air gone, hard to say where we go from here



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I could suggest you go to meteorology classes but that may be a bit harsh. 

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Rob K
08 February 2021 18:37:09


Atlantic winning, cold air gone, hard to say where we go from here



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Good old ECM always ready with a curve ball


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
08 February 2021 18:39:54


 


I could suggest you go to meteorology classes but that may be a bit harsh. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


the cold uppers had gone on that 144 chart. but we got an undercut so they came back. GEM has other ideas though


 

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
JRobinson
08 February 2021 18:40:25


 


I could suggest you go to meteorology classes but that may be a bit harsh. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


OUCH!

squish
08 February 2021 18:42:11
JMA and ECM hold firm to the east, although the current very low 850s are moderated for a while. Surface temps will stay low though
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
08 February 2021 18:43:41

Seems quite odd seeing traditional westerly charts 



GEM certainly not giving up on the Atlantic steamroller, in fact it is gathering pace.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
08 February 2021 18:44:22


 


the cold uppers had gone on that 144 chart. but we got an undercut so they came back. GEM has other ideas though


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


My point is that cold hasn’t really gone (at the surface) and the Atlantic looks far from winning on that chart.

Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
squish
08 February 2021 18:46:56
If the ecm 192 is near the mark ( similar to gefs mean ) the the Atlantic will have lost for a good while yet!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Rob K
08 February 2021 18:47:07
Intriguing battle not just between Atlantic and block but between ECM and GEM.

ECM looks like the risk of a proper snowfest into the SW Monday - Tuesday. Meanwhile GEM has fairly flat SWerlies, albeit still not exactly warm ones.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
The Beast from the East
08 February 2021 18:49:47

great but where has the cold air gone!


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Fargo
08 February 2021 18:53:59
GFS 12z has a biblical amount (80cm+) of snow accumulating by Valentines evening in County Wicklow. Somewhere on the knife edge with a bit of altitude could get 2-3 feet level snow based on recent output, quite extraordinary.
North Herefordshire 180m asl
Gandalf The White
08 February 2021 18:59:17


 


I could suggest you go to meteorology classes but that may be a bit harsh. 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


You put it very diplomatically.


I think we can say with reasonable certainty that Beast's grasp of meteorology is on a par with his grasp of US politics.... 



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
08 February 2021 19:03:52

GEFS. Definite signs of a warm-up to about average from around 18th-19th. https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2021020812/graphe6_10000_288_151___.gif



 


I would like just once to see a proper blizzardy breakdown though. I don't think that has ever occurred in my part of the world in my memory (so early 1980s onwards).

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
jhall
08 February 2021 19:16:08


GEFS. Definite signs of a warm-up to about average from around 18th-19th. https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/runs/2021020812/graphe6_10000_288_151___.gif



 


I would like just once to see a proper blizzardy breakdown though. I don't think that has ever occurred in my part of the world in my memory (so early 1980s onwards).


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


The GFS op is definitely a mild outlier for the few days preceding that, though.


How about a blizzardy failed breakdown? That notably happened in January 1982 in our part of the world.

Cranleigh, Surrey

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