LOL.

Some places missed out, some places did very well. Just the way it goes.  Don’t be daft. :-) 

I just hope next week can remain fairly dry. Also some hard frosts would be good because if we can't get snow to settle at -12C 850's and an air temperature of 0.3C and a DP of 1.5C in cloud there is not going to be much point of an average cold spell.

I don't think there are freely avalible operational WRF runs that are not initialized by the GFS.

It is interesting though to compare the 0.05degree with the 0.1degree WRF runs at 72hours. I suspect most of the differences are not due to the fine resolution stuff that affects precip distributions e.c.t. but the fact that the 0.05deg run on meteociel has a smaller domain and is therefore more influenced by the parent GFS.

I was thinking of running it off GEM data. I've only recently set-up a Linux server (the other 2 boxes are Windows so not an option realistically) for TWO which is what it needs. 

Why don't you run it off ICON or ARPEGE?

Then you'd have a high res model initiating another high res model.

Might give interesting results.

Plus it would be avalible alot earlier than if you did it from the GEM or ECM.

That's just silly, I don't think we have had -15s in this spell and the SE seems to have managed quite well, with 28cm of level snow in Essex and no doubt higher in areas not covered by official reading.

And we managed 7cm of snow in the space of less than 2 hours just a couple of weeks ago with 850s well above -10C.

Meanwhile on course for a second ice day on the trot here.

Will always thaw in bright sunlight, see my back of the envelope calculation yesterday where I calculated for patchy snow cover on a hard surface it will melt at 1cm/h

But really its only between 11am and 2pm and won't melt in the shade.

That shortwave on Friday is still inconsistently modelled.

Could bring a spell of unexpected persistent heavy snow on Friday.

What do you think the progression will be Sat/Sun, Q?

Don't loose hope guys.

There is not much in it between a bitterly cold and mild airmass.

Even the most progressive runs don't chase the cold away from Europe so the block is here to stay; that much is clear.

Think it will be freezing for the majority. I'd say the fronts probably too progressive on the models.

Whether the cold is eventually chased away by Monday I'm not sure. I hope noti!

Cloudy all day here with heavy snow earlier temp of 0c and still thawing. Any ideas?

Bit of a mystery, it hasn't been above -0.5C here all day but the only surfaces with lying snow remaining now are bare earth - it's gone from grass as well as other hard surfaces.

I would think it is just the radiation from the brightness under the cloud cover heating the dark surfaces as some others have said? My road froze last night as soon as the dusk arrived under cloudy skies most of the day, no real change in temp. 

When I have been skiing the temperature is often well below 0C when snowing, but it still doesn't stick well to some rocks and boulders which are wet. Same thing?

Had a look at a random weather station in bishop stotford

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IBISHO23

Look at the solar radiation.

It was 589W/m^2 at one point!

100 w/m^2 will melt 1cm of patchy snow cover, on hard ground, per hour.

So that's your answer!

Good news: its 2:30pm

Even if the snow cover is deep and and undisturbed, that's still at least 0.5cm/h gone.

In patchy snow cover on hard ground it will kill 10x that.

Reflected LW radiation can indeed hurt snow, but tbh its mostly the SW incoming type that is doing the damage.

Air temp with such low dews will do nothing.

Sounds plausible,  same thing here snow settles properly after about 4.30pm . Hopefully we can get some more after this time later. I suppose we dont get this much snow here often so not used to the variabilities of snow melt. 

Thanks Q. We still have good full cover on grass but its definitely gone down. Patchy elsewhere.

Bit late to this conversation but you could call this a Joe Denly winter

Interesting how only a couple days away models are struggling - will Devon see snow on Thursday and Friday or will it not? What do you think Q?

It's just warm earth from mild temps earlier and UHI effect.

Been up to Epping Forest tobogganing two days in a row now and it's absolutely lovely up there. 

strangely enough no “ winter is over “ posts for a few weeks 🤣🤣🤣🤣