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Saint Snow
12 February 2021 10:54:59

All models now firmed up that tomorrow's initial push will fizzle to the west of England, then Sunday's will be rain.


FFS. 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
The Beast from the East
12 February 2021 10:58:46


 


Yes hints of Spring and then perhaps another Beast. The GFS 6z a carbon copy of the met office long range forecast. 


 


https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=300&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0#mapref


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Wont be good for the plants and wildlife that will spring into life next week


March is often a cold month these days


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gooner
12 February 2021 11:10:13


Not for me , lost all faith in Easterlies 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
12 February 2021 11:11:24


Pffffttttt means nothing 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Whether Idle
12 February 2021 11:14:52


 


Not for me , lost all faith in Easterlies 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


A surprising show of weakness there Marcus.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Rob K
12 February 2021 11:19:23


 


A surprising show of weakness there Marcus.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


To be fair easterlies are never likely to be great for his location, in terms of snow. As Brian has mentioned, the best snow for central parts often comes when the synoptics are just getting ready for an easterly....


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
12 February 2021 11:19:35


 


Wont be good for the plants and wildlife that will spring into life next week


March is often a cold month these days


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


 


Indeed, but I think this March has all the hallmarks of a cold one perhaps very cold.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
12 February 2021 11:19:55


 


A few good ones still there. Dont give up just yet!


 


Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I think they will either be gone or everywhere on the 12Z.


Can't keep hope going after a bad 12z.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
12 February 2021 11:26:16

Trough is deeper than expected.


1011.9hpa vs 1012.5hpa


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Tim A
12 February 2021 11:30:30
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_324_1.png 
If that came off I would hope with more easterly than ENE or NE winds showers would penetrate further inland. Seems more of a classic Scandy High setup. Of course melting between showers and warm ground may still be an issue but I would jump at another chance of distruptive snow.
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Quantum
12 February 2021 11:35:30

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_324_1.png
If that came off I would hope with more easterly than ENE or NE winds showers would penetrate further inland. Seems more of a classic Scandy High setup. Of course melting between showers and warm ground may still be an issue but I would jump at another chance of distruptive snow.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Best chance might be that feature coming off the north sea. Its certainly interesting!


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
12 February 2021 11:37:47


 


To be fair easterlies are never likely to be great for his location, in terms of snow. As Brian has mentioned, the best snow for central parts often comes when the synoptics are just getting ready for an easterly....


Originally Posted by: Rob K 


I'm told that snow depths around here were not notable even during the big daddy event in Jan 1987. Therefore, I'm not sure what some people were expecting. Even during the best cold spells in the UK snow events usually boils down to one or two disturbances only unless you're in a coastal location or we're well into the meteorological spring when land based convections kicks up a gear.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
12 February 2021 11:40:05
So the theme of a breakdown with a bit of snow and a bit more rain at the weekend then milder next week with hints of something cooler in the longer term but with little agreement regarding that aspect.
Quantum
12 February 2021 11:51:40

That feature in the east was badly predicted.


That's what I'm hoping for the French/Spanish trough.


Look at the streamer in E anglia.


 


2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Downpour
12 February 2021 12:04:55


 


 


Indeed, but I think this March has all the hallmarks of a cold one perhaps very cold.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


And rightfully so. Two thirds of the month are in astronomical winter.


There is a reason that old wives tell us that it comes in like a lion, and out like a lamb...


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Sevendust
12 February 2021 12:34:23


 


I'm told that snow depths around here were not notable even during the big daddy event in Jan 1987. Therefore, I'm not sure what some people were expecting. Even during the best cold spells in the UK snow events usually boil down to one or two disturbances only unless you're in a coastal location or we're well into the meteorological spring when land based convections kicks up a gear.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I had hoped to scrape 5cm over this spell but that would have relied on a Thames Streamer. As you have said, snow in our locations often comes at the outset ( or more rarely the end) of an easterly spell. The reality is that I probably had 1 or 2cm from flurries but most just melted or evaporated before being any use

CField
12 February 2021 13:16:53

Great post found from  here ....forever optimistic 


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=17263


Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Brian Gaze
12 February 2021 13:24:12


 


I had hoped to scrape 5cm over this spell but that would have relied on a Thames Streamer. As you have said, snow in our locations often comes at the outset ( or more rarely the end) of an easterly spell. The reality is that I probably had 1 or 2cm from flurries but most just melted or evaporated before being any use


Originally Posted by: Sevendust 


TBH this has also come in at the low end of my expectations. At the outset I set a wide range, suggesting snow depths locally would be between 1cm and 10cm with about 5cm being the most likely outcome. At best we ended up with ~2cm on the grass and that was melting.   


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Whether Idle
12 February 2021 13:28:35

10/10 for the cold spell here


No marginality


2 major falls both 7cms or more


Powder snow\No drip drip (no marginality) 


Ice days


At least 8 days of snow cover IMBY  Simply the best spell here this millennium.  Far better than 2018, 2013 was not as snowy in one hit, 2010 was too patchy down here, not sustained, and 2005 was too marginal at times.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Schnow in Peace
12 February 2021 14:23:03

Can certainly see where the METO longer range outlook is coming from on the 06 GFS. Usual caveats apply but look at the second cold pool following the one that goes through from around T300surprised

Hungry Tiger
12 February 2021 14:27:05

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_324_1.png
If that came off I would hope with more easterly than ENE or NE winds showers would penetrate further inland. Seems more of a classic Scandy High setup. Of course melting between showers and warm ground may still be an issue but I would jump at another chance of distruptive snow.


Originally Posted by: Tim A 


Looks very promising - Hard to see that verifying though.


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


squish
12 February 2021 15:27:37
12z ICON bashes the block with successive short waves , but the overall synoptic picture in a weeks time looks quite promising
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Hippydave
12 February 2021 15:58:05


10/10 for the cold spell here


No marginality


2 major falls both 7cms or more


Powder snow\No drip drip (no marginality) 


Ice days


At least 8 days of snow cover IMBY  Simply the best spell here this millennium.  Far better than 2018, 2013 was not as snowy in one hit, 2010 was too patchy down here, not sustained, and 2005 was too marginal at times.


Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 


Bit OT but as it's quiet in here.....


6.5/10 for me.


4 days with falling snow, mostly light.


No fall greater than 3cm and ground remained too warm for the light snow to settle in places until Wednesday (typically it's all now frozen solid and any snow would settle from the off). Due to the patchy cover on the warmer/wetter bits the limited snowcover in some areas was quite readily melted off by the sun. 


Max depth on my decking (sheltered from the sun and worst of the wind) was 6cm. 


Depth of cold decent though - 2 definite ice days, today maxed at 0.2c, tomorrow looks similar and I don't think Sunday will warm up much before midnight so I'll have had snow cover for 8 days at least.


Whetted the appetite but not satiated, so hoping some of the nicer looking FI charts come off


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
warrenb
12 February 2021 16:20:35


 


Bit OT but as it's quiet in here.....


6.5/10 for me.


4 days with falling snow, mostly light.


No fall greater than 3cm and ground remained too warm for the light snow to settle in places until Wednesday (typically it's all now frozen solid and any snow would settle from the off). Due to the patchy cover on the warmer/wetter bits the limited snowcover in some areas was quite readily melted off by the sun. 


Max depth on my decking (sheltered from the sun and worst of the wind) was 6cm. 


Depth of cold decent though - 2 definite ice days, today maxed at 0.2c, tomorrow looks similar and I don't think Sunday will warm up much before midnight so I'll have had snow cover for 8 days at least.


Whetted the appetite but not satiated, so hoping some of the nicer looking FI charts come off


Originally Posted by: Hippydave 


And down in the valley to the north of T Wells we have had 4 ice days (including today with a high of -07.c). It takes it's time to get cold down here , but once it does, it gets properly cold.


warrenb
12 February 2021 16:40:08
Looks like GFS is brewing again.

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