in thier t-shirts and shorts ? 😁 

I'd rather a cold Feb than a cold spring,  can we really go all winter / early spring with pretty much no meaningful cold !

Personally I hope we don't get backloaded cold as last year spring was awful.

Mild and dry all the way would also do nicely.

 

Well any small hint of cold quickly dissipated on today’s runs. Looking like we could be on for a mild start to February as it stands. Will take that break now for a couple of days

I am tired but have not lost hope yet. Next 7 - 10 days are a write off, but interesting hints of of High building up towards the Arctic. This may be underplayed by the models of late but I think could produce sustained cold if it comes off and winter can end on a note to remember?

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I can still see plenty of cold potential today, must not focus on the ECM! The METO and GEM going cold, the GEFS have some very interesting charts post 200 FI, and these may develop a new trend or just renew the NW trend.
Martin

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Certainly a trend away from cool zonality. A few days ago it looked like Scotland at least might get some wintry weather over high ground, now the high is looking likely to be far too influential. .

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GFS 00z op run was an outlier, but the UK air pressure record (1053.6mB I think) would be under threat if it turned out to be correct pic.twitter.com/uW3X6ROTdC

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 24, 2022

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... they think it's all over ...

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Bit worrying with all the HP around and if was in June or July we would be looking at 30-38C days for weeks with strong HP around. That charts you posted can see very cold air hit Greece to Cyprus so this year is same as 1992 winter there.

Very cold air down in Cyprus now. 27cm of snow forecast for the Troodos mountains tonight! Shame the webcam has stopped working ....

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But I think a little while yet before we hear the words "it is now"

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?modelrun=na&lg=850&lglocation=London

Longer term, the control looks awful but there's still enough scatter in the ensembles to keep the outcome in doubt.

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Cold cluster of 850s ensembles appearing on 1st February with mean down to -5.7c in London looking at 00z run. But, will this be maintained. 😀

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That's probably the sort of Northerly that would give temperatures of 8 or 9c in London. At what point can we just throw in the towel and accept defeat for the 'Winter' of 2021/22? I think I'm already at that point.

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Go to https://www.kitasweather.com/troodos-jubilee-hotel-cam/ and you see the live cam from Jubilee Hotel.  Kita is like us weather fan for Cyprus and does storm chasing and snow chasing reports.   You can translate to English to read all the news and updates and latest snow is 42cm at the square and 82cm at top, the latest GFS graph for Nicosia going to have major rainfall so that likely to hit over 1m deep over there.  

MOGREPS shows a decent drop in temperatures from about 1st Feb, clutching

I lived in Troodos  from 92-95 whilst in the forces and having snow over 4m by the end of winter was normal. The winter of 92/93 we had our first snow on 02nd Dec. We saw the ground again at the end of April. Troodos is at 5,700ft 

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The current and ongoing forecast pattern has the look of late January 1905 about it:

ERA_1_1905013000_1.png (959×770) (wetterzentrale.de)

 

 

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and HOW did that winter turn out? I can't remember! 

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That pattern stuck around for the first half of the following Feb but the high eventually broke down to more unsettled and at times, colder weather. March was even more vigorous. 

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So I.E Zonality? Well at least there was weather to talk about rather than endless grey days and nothingness going on.

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Like the 00Z run - the 06Z operational run is one of the mildest run:

But cold cluster maintains on 1st February but this could just mean 7 or 8c for the south and 5 or 6c for the north. 

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GFS op is painful to watch at the moment!

GFS potentially delivering UK +10*C uppers...

we dont usually get them in average summers...

This winter really is a load of crud

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Yes tell me about it . Cold air and snow goes to Greece AGAIN!! 

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For the majority of folk that are looking for a good freeze up with snow a plenty, this winter has so far been complete crud. Straws to clutch are woefully scarce but willing to take them should they appear. it surprises me then that there is not one post on the developments on the 12z gfs strat forecast in deep la la land (yeah I know). A warming from the eastern American sector into the Arctic and the other from the north eastern Asian side into the arctic. A split is almost had at 10mb down through the layers and would almost certainly have occurred in later time frames. 

I am well aware that this could be gone as early as the 18z but after putting up with such dire synoptics with little to no chance of any snowfall this development IF correct could pave the way for mouth watering synoptics and a  long overdue countrywide freeze. I would forego any half hearted attempt at a fleeting cold snap and transient slushy deposit for the faintest chance of the real deal. 

Here's hoping.

GFS op run looks a treat tonight if you like mild