GFS control

Cold rain?

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Goodness me - from Russia with love sent to Ukraine - gosh i do feel for those in Ukraine! Now the big freeze for them as well. So sad! 

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And the latest 12z ECM not just reinforces the idea of the cold, wet and draughty southerly airflow but also shows it as longer lasting. That can go straight into the bin. 

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The compression of the isobars shown by a number of the models on the 10/11 th March look like bringing a period of very strong gales over a long period. Could well be significant.

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Deleted

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WX summary continues to show the expected distribution of temps from mild SW to cold NE, warming just a little in week 2,  though the overall baseline is below seasonal norm. There's a large dry patch (which has changed a bit since yesterday), week 1 over Germany, week 2 expanded N, E and S - but not to the UK which remains on the fringe and somewhat damp, nor to Spain which is wet.

Jet - a few curls in the N Atlantic but for most of the time the main stream runs across Spain and the Med, moving N for a brief flirtation with S England Sat 12th

GFS op 0z - a poorly defined HP over UK with embedded shallow troughs to Mon 7th. The HP then moves N to Norway allowing LP on the Atlantic  to link with LP in SE Europe Thu 10th before HO re-asserts itself, cuts off any connection with the E, and sets up a strong S-ly for a few days from Sun 13th between the HP 1035mb Baltic and LP 975mb off SW Eire, persisting but much weaker for the following week as the LP fills.

GEFS - temps close to or  a little below norm, unusually good agreement (though in the N a suggestion of colder around the 11th), not much rain until Fri 11th when appearing quite a number of ens members. 

ECM - like GFS at first; doesn't quite achieve the link between Atlantic & Continental LPs on the 10th but does try again on Mon 14th with stronger Lp over the Continent and some E-ly influence

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Looks like winter might finally start next week, after a dreadful period of Autumn February storms.

Should be pleasant in the daytime with the march sunshine and lovely clear blue skies, but a direct airflow from Ukraine, so lets the hope the Russians are not messing about at Chernobyl 

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Shame it's March - Control is an outlier at this point though 

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That’s not funny. 

GFS 12z op currently producing the kind of not particularly warm (but not overly cold) run that's really not going to help with my CET guess for March

Looks to be repeating attempts at an Easterly with chilly air dragged over each time interspersed with fairly limp breakdowns that don't manage to bring any notably milder air in. I suspect it'll often be a pretty cloudy and often dank affair for those of us down the east coast.

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WX summary as yesterday shows the expected distribution of temps from mild SW to cold NE  slight warming just a little in week 2,  perhaps with a bulge S-wards to Ukraine, though the overall baseline is below seasonal norm. There's a large dry patch week 1 over Germany, but unlike yesterday this has moved E-wards in week 2; W Europe is now damp and Spain through the Med definitely wet.

Jet blowing quite strongly across Spain and the Med to Fri 18th broken up with an occasional N-wards loop e.g. Tue 15th; from Sat 19th weaker but across the UK

GFS - HP drifting N to Scandinavia and hanging around there until Sat 12th with UK under weak E-ly influence (the MetO forecast for Chichester shows a remarkably steady progression from N (today) through NE, E (Mon), SE, to SSE (Thu)). The Atlantic then fires up 960mb Western Approaches Sun 13th drifting N but leaving a trough stretching across Uk and down to Italy to Sat 19th. This fills and the last couple of days look like a return to zonal.

GEFS - mean temps not far from norm, perhaps a little cooler around Mon 7th and Tue 15th, moderately good agreement in ens members; rain frequent after Fri 11th, notably heavier in SW England/Wales and least in N Scotland.

ECM - rather different; the Atlantic influence is stronger to start with with LP near NI Tue 8th and the E-ly not reaching the UK. But the counterpart of the  deep LP (GFS Sun 13th) is on Fri 11th 955mb central Atlantic and while it throws out a trough S-wards across UK, that is shallow and links to Spain Mon 14th, almost immediately replaces by ridge of HP from the SW

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Those poor souls. It is heartbreaking.  Nature seems ot kick us when we are down.

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Well seems like the potential easterly for next week has backed off and the cold intensifies as always over Eastern and especially south Eastern Europe like Balkans, Greece and Turkey. - Seems to be a deja vu here, it's a reoccurring pattern I see? Anyone else agree?

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Yeah so frustrating, seems like the models keep over estimating the strength of the block, don't know what it is but seems something isn't right this Winter, and we are simply unable to get a cold pattern setting up.

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Tell me about it. I wonder if we will ever get a cold spell now? Can't believe we have had 3 to 4 months for the year gone and no cold and snowy weather! 

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Tell me about it.

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Winter over now and for 2021/2022: it's a 0/10 for the first time in history.

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There were a few snowfalls here, 31cm total, 7 mornings with snow cover .  Mostly marginal wet snowfalls, very standard modern winter, although we have had a lot worse. Am including November in the above. 

Highlights were Storm Arwen, very heavy wet snowfall on the Friday night with blizzard conditions, lasted till the next snowfall;  a surprise daytime fall on the Sunday which was non-marginal (-1c) and stuck around for a further 24 hours before melting. 19th Feb was also an enjoyable daytime snowfall. 

 

Could have been so much better if heights hadn't built from the south on Boxing Day. 

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Summary charts continue the temp gradient from SW to NE and with quite a sharp withdrawal of cold air to the NE in week 2. Despite this, for most of Europe and esp the E Med the base temp is still below norm but rising to norm or slightly above in Scandi and (just) UK.

Jet active over Med and N Africa at first with occasional loops in N Atlantic; from Tue 15th pulses begin across UK, strong at end of run Tue 22nd.

GFS op - HP over Uk 1030mb Mon 7th moving to blocking position in Baltic with Atlantic LPs nudging W coast of UK (Wed 9th 985mb off SW Eire running NE-wards, 975mb off NW Ireland Sun 13th) with generally S-ly flow. This converts to a zonal flow with colder NW-lies Thu 17th & Tue 22nd (the latter with LP 965 mb Hebrides) and milder spells between

GEFS - temps not far from norm; cool now to mild Sat 12th then with less certainty cooler for a time finishing mild. Rain appearing in many runs from time to time after Wed 9th esp heavy and frequent in W

ECM - similar to GFS but with the LP Sun 13th splitting off a trough S-wards to Spain and a brief E-ly for S England before zonal takes over

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latest fiasco just shows how an easterly is now virtually impossible due to the power of the jet these days

 

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No doubt this is a longer term climate change issue with the northern jet too strong fuelled by warming

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Ironically, right now we are under the perfect easterly-type set up with Kent being under a "streamer" coming in from the Hook Of Holland, even uppers are at -7 C currently, and yet not a single sniff of any wintry precipitation whatsoever. I think high pressure being close by, the warm SSTs and DPs being above freezing are the culprits.
  But what it is doing is making the current 5 C feel unnecessarily cold, so hopefully the strengthening jet stream putting us back under a SW airflow will cause temperatures to rise to normal March values which would feel warm in any sunshine (provided low pressure systems all bypass well off to the north of the UK). Cold snaps at this time of the year is about as welcome as Putin.

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Crazy isn't it. Looks like we are going to have another wet and unsettled month when a few days ago it looked like March would be dry, cold and sunny.

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If it's any consolation, it shouldn't be that long before the vortex starts to weaken properly. The sun will be crossing the equator into the northern hemisphere about a fortnight from now and from that point on, time will be ticking for the vortex as it is currently.

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