Agreed, I knew I wasn’t imagining it.

The biggest let down was August 2018. What an absolutely stunning summer up until then. 

Looking more unsettled longer term, threat of another heatwave is hanging in the balance. Warm and wet could be the order of the day, but we need the rain

Rather warm - not much rain covers it

That's right, Tim. Last week's heatwave was first picked up by the models with a fair amount of consistency during the last 2-3 days of July and the brief record-breaking heatwave just after mid-July also first appeared in the models well over a week in advance of it arriving. The models have certainly come up trumps in those two instances.

From what is shown now, it still looks as if high pressure might try to return again later on next week, but that is a long way off at the moment. As others have rightly said, a lot of areas need the rain and pretty badly by the looks of it.

Does that include the S.E corner which has basically become a dessert?

Good news, I think. I hope you make a speedy recovery after treatment.

The long range modeling seems far less successful for winter cold spells than it does for summer heatwaves. In fact it still seems to struggle with justa few days out in winter.

patterns are generally less stable in winter unless it’s mobile then it’s usually just the track of the low. This could well change in future and patterns could be more locked in. So for cold just needs to sit in the right place unlike last winter!

Temp isn't the sole metric, and certainly the Augusts of 07, 09 & 12 were poor/average. Even if they were better than the July, it wasn't a high bar! 

I think as well, during that 2007-2012 period of poor summers, the western half of the country fared worst, as there seemed a preponderence of straight westerlies carrying showers.

It's been the unsettled nature of the weather during Augusts that has been the killer. A complete lack of prolonged settled spells.

Agreed!

And I'd wager that Aug 18 was better than any of the Augusts between 2006 and 2014 (inclusive)

It would be good to view Kev Bradshaw's 'Manchester Summer Index' to check (even that is a bit of a blunt tool, though)

Yes, mobile weather is fueled by temperature differences. That's why winter is much more mobile than summer is.

Interestingly, in a warming world, summer temperature contrasts between the Poles and mid-latitudes is becoming smaller, further evidenced by why so many recent summers patterns have become locked in. I expect that will become more pronounced as the years go by.

As for this year, I expect this pattern will not be properly shifted until the cool air of autumn starts to advance from the North Pole. That's why I think we will continue to see further settled spells and heat waves into September.

Absolutely agree. Between August 2009 and August 2010 we spent 5 weeks in Cornwall and we did not have a single day where the sun shone like a classic summer's day. At best it was sunny intervals and, whilst warm in the sun, it was cool in the shade. Also we live in the south west, within walking distance of a number of beaches, and proper August beach days have been few and far between - until this year!

Indeed. Also I guess if the predicted high pressure system is located differently to the forecast makes the difference of it being 35C or 29C and nobody cares. In winter the same could make a difference of just 1 or 2 deg C but the difference between snow and rain and we all notice!

We used to camp in Cornwall in August when the kids were small.

We visited in 2008,2011,2012,2013, 2014....after that we gave up

2008,2012 and 2014 were horror shows. 2008 particularly wet, 2011 ok, 2012 particularly stormy and wet, 2013 was warm but often showery, 2014 particularly cool and cloudy with showers at some point on each day of our 3 week stay ! 

In conclusion: Cornwall has a crap climate. 

Its a shame our country’s best weather is in generally boring places with muddy sea and shingle beaches (sorry Kent, Sussex, Hampshire and Essex), or no beaches at all just suburbs and business parks (sorry Surrey, Herts, Bucks, Beds and Berks) while our spectacular coastlines, clear blue seas and white sands are in areas where 22C is a hot day and a warm summer evening means just the one sweater.

I can recall Cornwall August  in the 70s  73  2 weeks  one reasonable one pretty wet 

74 a washout fortnight un the main  but 75  had its fab days as well as some heavy downpours 

Ha! Great post. Although there is nothing wrong with Essex and Kent - many beautiful areas therein - but not so much at the coast. The coasts of the English West are so far superior it’s not even worth arguing about.

In any case, I have now got to the bottom of the weird ‘August is Rubbish’ cliche - it’s a western bias in the posters. Which is fine, I’m all for so-called ‘IMBY posts’, because all weather is local. 

Actually despite having no coastline Surrey has some beautiful sandy beaches, which I go to quite often!

https://i.imgur.com/kRoMlBq_d.webp

Im very happy that this level of ignorance abounds as regards the Kent coast.  Long may it remain to keep the visitor numbers down!

I live within an hour of Margate, Broadstairs and some very decent other coastline, and have a vineyard South of Canterbury. But sorry, it’s a different league. 

Sea you can see more than a metre through and is actually blue, fine white sand, proper cliffs, hidden coves, offshore islands, puffins. We don’t have them in the SE. 

The models are still struggling with timing, at least in this area. The thunderstorms associated with the breakdown were due yesterday (we did get a light shower) then they were put back to midday today; now we <might> get something this evening. At the same time the rain due for Sunday, a promising amount at a reasonable rate of fall, has now been put back to Monday morning and with a lower probability into the bargain.

Models also struggling with when and where the high pressure builds in. Somewhere nr the 24th. But exactly where is anyone's guess atm. GFS this morning has average temps but ECM looks hot.

More generally, week 1 starts with slightly cooler weather over W Europe, still above long-term average, but E Europe is way above norm. In week 2 our zombie heat wave returns with more significant heat over the continent, some spilling over into Britain and even hotter up through the Baltic. Rain well distributed in week 1, only seriously dry a long way east near the Urals; in week 2 drier, rain from Norway down to France and the alps, but Britain back in drought.

GFS Op - present thundery LP moves away E-wards, then a spell of mostly W-ly weather with LP between Scotland and Iceland until Wed 24th when it moves SE to cover Britain briefly as a shallow trough; HP revives from the SW and is present strongly for the BH weekend before losing its identity Fri 2nd. An ex-hurricane appears on the Atlantic in this final chart

GEFS - in the S cooling down to Sun 21st then warming again with good agreement between ens members to about 4C above norm Thu 25th. This is followed by an odd pattern with one ens group way above norm (+10C) and another group close to norm while the mean is just about on its own between the two. Some rain now and chances around Wed 24th. In the N, the cooling and warming are there, but the ens members just show a wide spread rather than dividing into two groups; mean 3 or 4 C above norm. Quite a bit of rain w/b FRi 19th, and not entirely dry after that.

ECM - differs from GFS after Wed 24th as the HP develops only weakly and by  Sat 27th is being pushed away NE-wards by LPs from France and on the Atlantic

Very poor modelling for few hours ahead.  Never mind after this extremely boring overcast weather goes away soon and we back again HP with warm temperatures to the end of the month.