theweatheroutlook

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idj20
18 August 2022 23:23:24

Pub run looking hot. Block doesn’t get split

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Not sure if I'm seeing the same thing as you as the GFS 18z run looks a terrible one with the idea of low pressure taking back control over the UK. Still some summer-like days to be had but rain starting to become more likely. A far cry from the extended settled picture in previous runs.
 
Of course, it's only one run and not to be treated as an actual forecast, etc, etc.

Folkestone Harbour. 
White Meadows
19 August 2022 05:10:10

Some wild swings on the London 00z ensembles after 23rd. Probably a case of very warm air over the far south while much cooler systems attack from a NW quarter.

On the important subject of the energy crisis, as a freelancer able to work from anywhere I’m seriously considering moving to warmer climes for the winter. Incredibly, it actually looks cheaper to pay out of season accommodation costs than to heat my own home in the UK.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 05:48:32

Some wild swings on the London 00z ensembles after 23rd. Probably a case of very warm air over the far south while much cooler systems attack from a NW quarter.

On the important subject of the energy crisis, as a freelancer able to work from anywhere I’m seriously considering moving to warmer climes for the winter. Incredibly, it actually looks cheaper to pay out of season accommodation costs than to heat my own home in the UK.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Are you the person featured on the front page of the Star?


https://www.todayspapers.co.uk/the-daily-star-front-page-today/


 

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
White Meadows
19 August 2022 06:14:22


 


Are you the person featured on the front page of the Star?


https://www.todayspapers.co.uk/the-daily-star-front-page-today/


 


Originally Posted by: DEW 

Haha, looks like I’m not the only one with the same idea. Seriously though, a 3 month stay in Madrid for under £300 is seriously appealing. Lots of empty properties with free Wi-Fi, all bills paid for but would otherwise generate zero cash are not hard to find. Either that or check yourself into a long stay hospice like Mooms has. 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 06:25:10


Haha, looks like I’m not the only one with the same idea. Seriously though, a 3 month stay in Madrid for under £300 is seriously appealing. Lots of empty properties with free Wi-Fi, all bills paid for but would otherwise generate zero cash are not hard to find. Either that or check yourself into a long stay hospice like Mooms has. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Madrid average temp for Jan is 6C, for London 5C. Somewhere further south might be a better choice for heating bills.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
White Meadows
19 August 2022 06:53:25


 


Madrid average temp for Jan is 6C, for London 5C. Somewhere further south might be a better choice for heating bills.


Originally Posted by: DEW 

The point is, the accommodation costs actually cover all bills including heating. Happy days. 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 06:57:40

Heat in retreat? Those nice red colours on the WX charts are by week 2 south of a line S France - S Germany - N Ukraine; but noto steep a gradient to the N of this line so still quite pleasant for most of Britain, Definitely cool for Shetland across to Finland where temps will come down dramatically from the present ones. Rain principally across Scotland to Scandinavia and down through E Europe week 1, same areas but shrinking in week 2 and ultra-dry back for England.


Jet streaks across Britain for the next 2 or 3 days, a glancing blow from the NW on Thu 1st, otherwise no action until Sept when it fires up close to Greenland.


GFS Op - light W-ly regime with not very deep LPs N of Scotland to Fri 26th. Then LP develops W of Ireland which with HP near E Scotland could bring up some warmth from the S before being rudely interrupted by LP running down the N Sea Thu/Fri 1st/2nd with N-lies, after which HP resumes dominance over Britain


GEFS - Mean temp trundling along close to or a little above norm for the forecast period (briefly cooler in the N  about Thu 25th), well supported by most ens members though there re a few spectacularly hot outliers around Sun 28th. Very dry in the S, not much rain in the N and that mostly early on, a few big spikes in some runs for E coast. 


ECM - quite different from GFS after Fri 26th when HP, not LP, develops W of Ireland, strengthening to the NW of Scotland with light N-lies; not cold but less prospect of a hot BH weekend though still dry

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 08:16:10


Haha, looks like I’m not the only one with the same idea. Seriously though, a 3 month stay in Madrid for under £300 is seriously appealing. Lots of empty properties with free Wi-Fi, all bills paid for but would otherwise generate zero cash are not hard to find. Either that or check yourself into a long stay hospice like Mooms has. 


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Trouble with a 3 month stay is that uses up all your post-Brexit travel allowance in one go, so no summer or Easter holiday in Europe. (That’s as much OT as I dare go - back to models now)


I must say it feels like the summer is slowly fading in the models. Not seen multiple 30C+ days in an op run for a long time now, and in late August we need higher 850s for the same surface temperatures.


Im ending a summer holiday of touring Europe in our place in Central France and have had a rather autumnal 3 days with rain every day, mud in the fields and low scuddy clouds. Like Devon in September. Funny to think it’s less than a week since the place was in the mid 30s and hadn’t seen rain for over a month. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
GezM
  • GezM
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19 August 2022 08:27:33


 


Trouble with a 3 month stay is that uses up all your post-Brexit travel allowance in one go, so no summer or Easter holiday in Europe. (That’s as much OT as I dare go - back to models now)


I must say it feels like the summer is slowly fading in the models. Not seen multiple 30C+ days in an op run for a long time now, and in late August we need higher 850s for the same surface temperatures.


Im ending a summer holiday of touring Europe in our place in Central France and have had a rather autumnal 3 days with rain every day, mud in the fields and low scuddy clouds. Like Devon in September. Funny to think it’s less than a week since the place was in the mid 30s and hadn’t seen rain for over a month. 


Originally Posted by: TimS 


It does feel like the really high temperatures are ebbing away. GEFS 0Z is showing fairly cool and unsettled weather in the north of the UK while the south generally stays warm and more settled with some rain at times (although not a great deal in central southern parts). We still seem to be effortlessly getting temperatures into the high 20s (e.g. Heathrow 27.8C yesterday) and I expect there will be a few more days in the mid to high 20s next week. This, of course, is perfect summer weather for most people.


It seems that in the south at least, the transition to autumn is not looking too rapid right now. 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
The Beast from the East
19 August 2022 08:34:20


 


It does feel like the really high temperatures are ebbing away. GEFS 0Z is showing fairly cool and unsettled weather in the north of the UK while the south generally stays warm and more settled with some rain at times (although not a great deal in central southern parts). We still seem to be effortlessly getting temperatures into the high 20s (e.g. Heathrow 27.8C yesterday) and I expect there will be a few more days in the mid to high 20s next week. This, of course, is perfect summer weather for most people.


It seems that in the south at least, the transition to autumn is not looking too rapid right now. 


Originally Posted by: GezM 


Yes, I agree. Summer is ebbing away now. We may get another burst of heat in September which often happens these days. 


We can just hope for wind and mild south westerlies to ease the energy problems from October


But knowing our luck, we finally get a winter like 2009/10 or another Dec 2010

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Rob K
19 August 2022 08:38:30
I'd quite like to have a cold winter to see how my heat pump would cope with the cold - it's meant to work down to -25C although obviously the efficiency drops off at lower temperatures. If all else fails I'll have a new 10kW woodburner and a shed full of building timber offcuts!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 08:42:05

This morning’s ECM ENS is a world away from what it was showing a few days ago. 




Average SLP still rising to above 1020hpa for several days (the SLP plot isn’t postable from WZ and I don’t think TWO has it). Best to ignore ECM rain spikes as that’s a product of so many members, it’s still quite a dry run, but long term airmass temperature at or below average for the first time I can remember since June.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
moomin75
19 August 2022 08:46:49

Home from hospital today after a pretty painful few days after my lumbar surgery.
Now laid up in bed for a week to get better, and first look at the models for a few days.
For continuity of my negativeness (not really!!) it appears that at last, the dog days of summer are gone and there's not likely to be a return of anything like that again. That isn't really a negative though. 
Summer 2022 has been very memorable and there is plenty of time left for some really usable weather over the next 6 to 8 weeks.
Thank you to everyone for their well wishes, particularly all the PM's I had.
I know I can be a very annoying old so and so, but I do love this place and I do try not to antagonise (too much).
After the last week, I know that getting worked up over the weather is a waste of time. ENJOY whatever we get, as life is too short.
Thanks again all. Now time for me to get on the mend. 😊

Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 09:26:56

I'd quite like to have a cold winter to see how my heat pump would cope with the cold - it's meant to work down to -25C although obviously the efficiency drops off at lower temperatures. If all else fails I'll have a new 10kW woodburner and a shed full of building timber offcuts!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

  Hoping solar panels will generate most of the electricity to run our heat pump, so I want clear days in winter. Our wood burner takes a heck of a lot of wood but it doubles as an oven. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 09:30:02


Home from hospital today after a pretty painful few days after my lumbar surgery.
Now laid up in bed for a week to get better, and first look at the models for a few days.
For continuity of my negativeness (not really!!) it appears that at last, the dog days of summer are gone and there's not likely to be a return of anything like that again. That isn't really a negative though. 
Summer 2022 has been very memorable and there is plenty of time left for some really usable weather over the next 6 to 8 weeks.
Thank you to everyone for their well wishes, particularly all the PM's I had.
I know I can be a very annoying old so and so, but I do love this place and I do try not to antagonise (too much).
After the last week, I know that getting worked up over the weather is a waste of time. ENJOY whatever we get, as life is too short.
Thanks again all. Now time for me to get on the mend. 😊


Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Nice to have you back Moomin!   

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Matty H
19 August 2022 09:37:52

I'd quite like to have a cold winter to see how my heat pump would cope with the cold - it's meant to work down to -25C although obviously the efficiency drops off at lower temperatures. If all else fails I'll have a new 10kW woodburner and a shed full of building timber offcuts!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Fabric first. If your house doesn’t have the adequate thermal values you’re in for a nasty shock


Samsung are releasing a product next month that has no drop off down to -25c

Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 09:41:32


Nice to have you back Moomin!   


Originally Posted by: Caz 


Great news that you are posting again Moomin. Totally agree that there are bigger things to worry about than the weather (most of the time at least!). And life is too short so we need to enjoy it to the full.


I hope you make a quick recovery 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Hungry Tiger
19 August 2022 13:30:03


Home from hospital today after a pretty painful few days after my lumbar surgery.
Now laid up in bed for a week to get better, and first look at the models for a few days.
For continuity of my negativeness (not really!!) it appears that at last, the dog days of summer are gone and there's not likely to be a return of anything like that again. That isn't really a negative though. 
Summer 2022 has been very memorable and there is plenty of time left for some really usable weather over the next 6 to 8 weeks.
Thank you to everyone for their well wishes, particularly all the PM's I had.
I know I can be a very annoying old so and so, but I do love this place and I do try not to antagonise (too much).
After the last week, I know that getting worked up over the weather is a waste of time. ENJOY whatever we get, as life is too short.
Thanks again all. Now time for me to get on the mend. 😊


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Good to have you back. Hope you're feeling much better soon.

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 14:04:54
Scanning through the last couple of GFS runs for cloud cover and they are incredibly cloudy throughout the run. That explains the disappointing daytime temperatures under relatively high uppers and despite high pressure.

Illegal clouds. Generally low level ones too.

As the continent will be very cloudy too a simple change of wind direction won’t be enough to change the outlook. Would need a big intense high pressure to take over and clean them up, which is possible on some runs.



Brockley, South East London 30m asl
White Meadows
19 August 2022 14:13:04


 


Trouble with a 3 month stay is that uses up all your post-Brexit travel allowance in one go, so no summer or Easter holiday in Europe. (That’s as much OT as I dare go - back to models now)


Originally Posted by: TimS 

Sounds like Mooms wasn’t the only one with a case of ED. 

ozone_aurora
19 August 2022 14:52:46

Scanning through the last couple of GFS runs for cloud cover and they are incredibly cloudy throughout the run. That explains the disappointing daytime temperatures under relatively high uppers and despite high pressure.

Illegal clouds. Generally low level ones too.

As the continent will be very cloudy too a simple change of wind direction won’t be enough to change the outlook. Would need a big intense high pressure to take over and clean them up, which is possible on some runs.



Originally Posted by: TimS 


It'll be very, very bad news for Astronomers. 


 

The Beast from the East
19 August 2022 17:05:37

GEM and GFS look warm, but how do you know if they are cloudy or not?


 


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jiries
19 August 2022 17:10:36


GEM and GFS look warm, but how do you know if they are cloudy or not?


 



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


With that set-up SW to NE always bring nationwide sunny weather, there no flow from the dirty Atlantic but from continent.  That my favorite set-up as it usually last for long time.

tierradelfuego
19 August 2022 17:48:05


 


With that set-up SW to NE always bring nationwide sunny weather, there no flow from the dirty Atlantic but from continent.  That my favorite set-up as it usually last for long time.


Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Hmmm, I'm pretty sure a flow from the SW would come from the Atlantic, no?  Do you mean the SE? The chart shows a pretty complex SE flow for the South of the country but a SW flow the further north you go, much like recent times.


 


Looks pretty usable to me, not too hot but unfortunately not much rain either, here at least.

Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 August 2022 17:57:59


GEM and GFS look warm, but how do you know if they are cloudy or not?


 



Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


By looking at the modelled cloud cover. Which is very cloudy again, indeed more ridiculously so on GFS than the 06z. No sunny day (by which I mean 50% or less cloud cover)in the Southern half of Britain before September. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl

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