The flow would be from the SE toward South UK then swing inland SW flow further north but should be sunny as the air source is not from the deep Atlantic but from continent, via UK landmass so not picking up moisture at all.  Might be different matter for Ireland under huge HP cell.

 

Yes agreed, hence why I asked if you meant SE when you said SW.

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Only for the UK amateur variety. Professionals do it from remote mountain tops or increasingly from satellites.

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Isn’t GFS cloud modelling total junk though?

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It’s not great if you want local specifics but for the general picture it’s fine. ICON is very similar for first 180 hours, and ECM which is also not great for cloud accuracy looks v similar.

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Dated June 28th - has anyone noticed a difference?

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump

 

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There won't be any difference yet to the likes of GFS. From that article:

So it looks like the GFS model will get an enhancement in the autumn.

WX charts - in any other summer week 1 would be reckoned warm for August but W Europe is a little cooler than it has been for some time. Then in week 2, heat from the S moves up again and even N Scotland sees a share of it. Meanwhile Germany and Poland cool from week 1 to week 2, and most of Scandinavia along with W Russia cools sharply over this period. Rain well distributed over W Europe week 1, diminishing to a narrow band from the Baltic to Italy week2 with drought returning to Spain, France (except the mountains) and Britain.

GFS Op - light W-lies for Britain to Thu 25th with LP up near Iceland after which HP moves up from the SW and amalgamates with that over Scandinavia to be well ensconced over the British Isles 1030mb Tue 30th, and there it stays; a deep LP developing over the Baltic makes no impression, and a tentative ex-hurricane appearing Sun 4th is still a couple of thousand miles to the SW.

GEFS - becoming warmer to a peak on Thu 25th after which the mean drops back to a steady 2C or so above norm, but agreement between ens member is uncertain. More rain than WX charts suggest but still not a lot, sporadic but could happen any time in the S, further N occasional large totals in some ens members at various times depending on how far W/N/E the location is.

ECM - differs from GFS after Thu 25th with the final LP of the sequence near Iceland moving SE 1005mb Hebrides Sat 27th and no rise of pressure from the SW. This LP links with lower pressure over Scandinavia and by Tue 30th this system in conjunction with a new ridge of HP from Greenland to Portugal put Britain under light N-lies.

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I check it myself and it look really sunny and great weather next week and in to the BH weekend with HP moving east so warm and sunny the outcome after average temperatures during the week.

ECM and GEM looking cold, might need to start firing up those boilers soon! Energy crisis here we come

 

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Yes colder in London than the Midlands as it going for 21-24C next 10 days on the apps with sunshine so no heating needed.

I don’t think I’ve ever put the heating on before late October let alone summer

Certainly a fresher feel now, but still warm. It’s nice

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The GEM is not cold and the ECM is a colder option (colder outlier up here) by day 10 before then it’s not especially cold either.

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Heating time for me is usually first week of October.

 

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I wonder if the quiet (so far) hurricane season could lead to a cool and wet September in the UK?

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Hmmm - Beacuse a busy Atlantic re hurricanes usually means a warm dry and settled September.

 

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Would be nice. We've not had any cool months this year so far.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2022/daily_meantemp_cet_2022.png

(And for reference, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2021/daily_meantemp_cet_2021.png ) - the last sustained cool period was May 2021!)

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I note that  NOAA Hurricane Hunter is tasked to investigate Potential TD4 in the Gulf of Mexico near the Mouth of The Rio Grande today. I doubt it will have time to form much more due to landfall later today. However, there are numerous disturbances and waves poised to exit the African coast later this week. There have been quite a few already, but little development, possibly due to large quantities of Saharan dust that have been impeding formation. This is now dispersing. Sticking my neck out, I can see potential for more robust development within, say, the next week. We shall see. EDIT: Select Mission 02 for live updates from the Invest aircraft. http://aircraft.myfoxhurricane.com/recon/ click on the Dropsonde image for descent data.

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Unsettled, wet Septembers have been a rarity in the SE half of UK since 2002. They were more common in the 1990's, with regular thunder in  southern North Sea and the English Channel.

Yes, indeed. They seem to push low pressures (as ET Cyclones) well to the N of UK.

It’s the jetstream that does that. 

Personally I would think a less active hurricane season was more conducive to a drier, more settled ultimately warmer autumn. Let’s face it, autumn is pretty much a warm season nowadays. Down here anyway 

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It certainly is, especially in Suffolk where I used to live (Lowestoft).

Indeed - as if things couldn't get any worse for me weatherwise! Now coming into the moonless two weeks and peak Milky Way season and I was planning on doing some Milky way landscape shots. Still almost no rain at all for three months and now cloud but no rain. 

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Not been able to pop in for a couple of days. What happened to the day's rain spreading in from the west Sunday night/Monday??

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The very wet second half of September 1999 was associated with Hurricane Floyd. That was a really odd month , being 11 days of crazy heatwave and bone dry conditions at the start followed by three weeks of washout but still very warm all the while .