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nsrobins
11 January 2023 13:33:20

Feb 2001 from here I think.

Kettley high charts 

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


On the Wednesday Farmer's update John Kettley famously forecast a much colder easterly setting in with snow across the whole of the UK. Helen Young, who was his senior at the time, presented on Thursday and basically changed the forecast to the easterly affecting Scotland only. The rest is history but a simple incorrect forecast has gone down in folklore.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Retron
11 January 2023 14:18:43

On the Wednesday Farmer's update John Kettley famously forecast a much colder easterly setting in with snow across the whole of the UK. Helen Young, who was his senior at the time, presented on Thursday and basically changed the forecast to the easterly affecting Scotland only. The rest is history but a simple incorrect forecast has gone down in folklore.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Close, but not quite right.

John Kettley left in 2000 to join a private forecasting company. He then forecast that very cold weather - cynics might say he was just trying to "outdo" the Met Office and garner attention for the forecasting company, but who knows.

The Met Office response, via the Beeb, was to rubbish him.

Loads more about this, including the Beeb forecasts, over on NetWeather:

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/72483-met-office-v-john-kettley-early-february-2001/ 
 
Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
11 January 2023 14:23:06

So what you're saying is that we need to look deep into the unreliable FI time period for mild weather? Interesting.

The colder, potentially wintry,snap may not even happen given the timescale so guessing beyond then looks a bit pointless to me to be honest as only a few days ago it was mooted that it would continue mild throughout the entire month.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 




Tomorrow, if FI flips to showing cold for the rest of the month, do you think the poster in question will be back on here giving a cold forecast?

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2
Gandalf The White
11 January 2023 14:47:02

milder after the cold snap next week does also look to be supported by the ensembles at the moment though.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Not really, in fact. There's the usual scatter but quite a decent number of perturbations keeping it cool to cold. 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
11 January 2023 15:09:11

Not really, in fact. There's the usual scatter but quite a decent number of perturbations keeping it cool to cold. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The ECM 10 day mean is pretty hopeless for cold though. So after our blink and you miss it cold snap, its back to normal service
Is there any point getting interested in this at all?
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
moomin75
11 January 2023 15:22:29
A brief cold incursion (it is January after all) then a quick return to mild, Zonal dross.

Not interested in a blink and you miss it cold "snapette".

Still interesting signals in the Stratosphere, but signals can wax and wane. ​​​​​​​

​​​​​​​Form horse remains mostly unsettled, mild and cool spells with a very brief flirtation with something cold, for about 24 hours.    
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
nsrobins
11 January 2023 15:29:49

Close, but not quite right.

John Kettley left in 2000 to join a private forecasting company. He then forecast that very cold weather - cynics might say he was just trying to "outdo" the Met Office and garner attention for the forecasting company, but who knows.

The Met Office response, via the Beeb, was to rubbish him.

Loads more about this, including the Beeb forecasts, over on NetWeather:

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/72483-met-office-v-john-kettley-early-february-2001/ 
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Thanks Darren - I knew there was a thread on it somewhere. My memory isn't quite what it was, but I'm sure Kettley at least made the forecast on a mainstream outlet (Radio 2?).
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Tim A
11 January 2023 15:48:49
2000/1 was actually a decent winter despite that disapointment, lots of snow events, although there was a time when Borders/Scotland/Shetland were making the headlines with severe snow when we didnt have any/much.   Good surprise snow event of 6 inches on 22 March 2001 too, very localised though. 

 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
DPower
11 January 2023 15:53:26
I Don't know if it has already been highlighted, but all flights were grounded in America earlier this  morning because of computer systems failure. Could effect model output I guess. 
Saint Snow
11 January 2023 16:06:42

2000/1 was actually a decent winter despite that disapointment, lots of snow events, although there was a time when Borders/Scotland/Shetland were making the headlines with severe snow when we didnt have any/much.   Good surprise snow event of 6 inches on 22 March 2001 too, very localised though. 

 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 




There was a great fall between Xmas and NY (although a disappointment on NYE). And we also had a fall in March, which left several cm's on the ground (albeit very wet snow)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
11 January 2023 16:18:21
Quite different at 162h on 12z from 6z not worth much going beyond about 6 days currently and some interesting weather to come. See the fortune teller is back
Brian Gaze
11 January 2023 16:40:26
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Hippydave
11 January 2023 16:42:16
A messy (but essentially consistent with recent output) 12z GFS so far - one of those setups that's very marginal but often brings at least transient snowfall, as shown by the precip charts at varying points.

The further North you are and the higher up you are, the greater chance you have of seeing snow and just based on the 12z op in isolation parts of Scotland would do well for cold and snow for several days. 

Signs at T252 of HP being a bit more extensive to the south rather than the west or south west and a consequent feed of milder air, might not last long though and a bit pointless looking at in isolation. 

 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
some faraway beach
11 January 2023 16:50:09
I enjoyed the references to January 1987 this morning, but never mind that - look what's been number one on the analogue index for the last couple of days:

11 JAN 2023
Place Year  Index value
1       1986 9284

February 1986 here we come! (It's been hovering near the top for quite a while.)
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Taylor1740
11 January 2023 16:52:28

So what you're saying is that we need to look deep into the unreliable FI time period for mild weather? Interesting.

The colder, potentially wintry,snap may not even happen given the timescale so guessing beyond then looks a bit pointless to me to be honest as only a few days ago it was mooted that it would continue mild throughout the entire month.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


well there's high confidence now I think in the colder snap next week, however there's also a reasonably strong signal for it to turn milder after that. Of course it could change at this range however I feel like the models have performed mostly well this Winter so wouldn't bet against them.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
11 January 2023 17:12:11

well there's high confidence now I think in the colder snap next week, however there's also a reasonably strong signal for it to turn milder after that. Of course it could change at this range however I feel like the models have performed mostly well this Winter so wouldn't bet against them.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



The standard deviations on the ensemble data indicate reasonably good agreement up to the 18th of January only, perhaps the 19th on the ECM ensemble data. After that the variability is very large.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
ballamar
11 January 2023 18:04:47
ECM hopefully be a cracker this evening- find out soon
Jacee
11 January 2023 18:26:37


A brief cold incursion (it is January after all) then a quick return to mild, Zonal dross.
Not interested in a blink and you miss it cold "snapette".
Still interesting signals in the Stratosphere, but signals can wax and wane. ​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​Form horse remains mostly unsettled, mild and cool spells with a very brief flirtation with something cold, for about 24 hours.    

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Hello, I'm not sure which charts you have to hand that point to a return to zonal weather? It may or may not turn milder after next week's cold snap, but going by the GEFS pressure ensemble suite it actually favours higher pressure (moreso further south) along with a NA jet that is far from flat across the Atlantic.

UserPostedImage

FI at that stage mind, but I'd be more inclined to favour a typical NW/SE split after the cold snap. What's a snapette? 🤔

Next week's charts scream snow potential in my opinion. Low thicknesses, trough disruption with polar air...

UserPostedImage

We've been waiting for a change to the status quo for some time now and at last we've got it 😊
Jacee, Hucknall (Notts) 😽 x
+6
Matty H
11 January 2023 18:31:28

Tomorrow, if FI flips to showing cold for the rest of the month, do you think the poster in question will be back on here giving a cold forecast?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Works the other way as well for some of those hilariously looking for cold all the time. Of course they are never pulled to task about it. They’re seen as good eggs. 

jff
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
ballamar
11 January 2023 18:31:46
ECM at 144h will feel cold in the south in that wind!
Eventually warmer westerly winds over the top of the Azores high. Bit of fun before it gets fairly mild 
fairweather
11 January 2023 19:04:47

The ECM 10 day mean is pretty hopeless for cold though. So after our blink and you miss it cold snap, its back to normal service
Is there any point getting interested in this at all?
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


As I recall I was fairly indifferent to the cold spell in December a week out. Just showed about -5C uppers and relatively dry. Then as it got closer it did the unusual thing of getting colder but the possibility of up to 6" of snow (Harlow I believe) wasn't ever forecast till it happened. More snow looks at least possible. If you want a cold spell over two weeks long you're probably on a one in twenty year event. 
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+2
fairweather
11 January 2023 19:09:00

So what you're saying is that we need to look deep into the unreliable FI time period for mild weather? Interesting.
.

doctormog wrote:


You don't need to no, not if you don't want to. It may well be meaningless but that is what it is showing at the moment. If he said otherwise he would be making it up!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
doctormog
11 January 2023 19:17:09

You don't need to no, not if you don't want to. It may well be meaningless but that is what it is showing at the moment. If he said otherwise he would be making it up!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Thanks for that helpful contribution. I never said that wasn’t what was being shown at the moment did I? I commented on the reliability which I then later on backed up with more evidence. I’m sure there is a decent chance it will turn milder after the probable colder unsettled snap, that’s not my point.

You seem to be largely replying to something I didn’t actually say, not for the first time either, but if it makes you happy that’s cool. Please don’t twist my narrative to insinuate something I’m not saying.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Jiries
11 January 2023 19:27:48

A brief cold incursion (it is January after all) then a quick return to mild, Zonal dross.

Not interested in a blink and you miss it cold "snapette".

Still interesting signals in the Stratosphere, but signals can wax and wane. 

​​​​​​​Form horse remains mostly unsettled, mild and cool spells with a very brief flirtation with something cold, for about 24 hours.    

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



They put snow on my 50th Birthday on 16th Jan, even if a brief one at least to see snowfall on my day then a bit colder on Tuesday but dry then jump back to above average so heating costs will not be high as last month.
doctormog
11 January 2023 19:50:17

They put snow on my 50th Birthday on 16th Jan, even if a brief one at least to see snowfall on my day then a bit colder on Tuesday but dry then jump back to above average so heating costs will not be high as last month.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Happy birthday in advance and yes it’s worth keeping an eye out for the risk of snow for your birthday. Even in Aberdeen I’ve never had snow on my birthday which is disappointing…but then again my birthday is in July. 🤡

Anyway brief summary of the models’ output this evening cooler and unsettled then milder and potentially more settled, with all the usual caveats given the time scales. This is backed up by the 12z ECM ensemble data.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

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